Monday, 28 November 2011

The 2013 Ynys Môn Local Election results today

After some weekend number-crunching, here are my predictions for the 2013 local elections on Ynys Môn, assuming that the proposed new boundaries are accepted:

     Plaid Cymru:     11 seats
     Independents:     7 seats
     Labour:              6 seats
     Conservative:     5 seats
     Lib Dems:          1 seat

This would most probably result in a Plaid / Labour coalition, and the installation of Plaid's Bob Parry as Leader and Labour's John Chorlton as Deputy Leader.

Clearly the big winners would be Plaid Cymru, which would explain why Ieuan Wyn Jones promoted multi-member wards as the solution to Ynys Môn's local government problems during the Assembly election hustings. As far as I can see, Labour will not gain as many new seats as they suppose, and will in all probability only win two of the three seats on offer in the new 'Holy Island Port' super-ward.

A closer look at the new proposed boundaries throws up some interesting facts. Below is a map of the current electoral boundaries and the parties which hold them:

Anglesey's current local electoral map
Red: LAB, Green: PC, Blue: CON, Yellow: LD, Grey: IND
Click to enlarge

And this is a map of the new proposed boundaries overlaid on the above current map:

Yellow lines indicate the new proposed boundaries.
Number of Councillors returned by each new ward in brackets.
Click to enlarge

Although a number of current wards are cut into two, including Bodorgan, Llanfihangel Ysgeifiog, Llanfair-Yn-Neubwll and Pentraeth, only one of the current wards is to be split across three of the new wards: Bodffordd. Its almost as if the Boundary Commission was trying to ensure that somebody with a powerbase in Bodffordd could never get elected again...

8 comments:

228FPA said...

If true and becomes fact, just more years in the wilderness for this Island.

Anonymous said...

The Boundary report welcomes alternate suggestions for names of the new wards. Here are my suggestions:

Northern Anglesey - Plutonium 123 zone
North Eastern Anglesey - Caravan zone
Eastern Anglesey - Puffin Zone
South Central - Bridges-to-Nowhere zone
Holy Island Port - Stena Zone
Holy Island Rural - Lighthouse Zone
South Eastern - Bryn Celli Ddu & Druid zone
Western - Jets & Helicopters Zone
Southern - Squirrel Zone
North Western - Bermuda Triangle Zone

kp said...

As I've said elsewhere, we'd get a much better set of councillors if we stopped paying for them, boundary changes or not.

So, come on residents of Anglesey, let's somehow work out how to get back to the past, the past when being a councillor actually meant something, when it meant being a public servant!

menaiblog said...

I suppose that it would be toomuch to ask for the basis for your predictions.

Paul Williams said...

Cai - you're just going to have to trust me.

menaiblog said...

Mmmm

Richard Sletzer said...

A Llangefni-born performer, Shon Dale-Jones (a.k.a Hugh Hughes) has created a very successful theatrical production called "Floating" based on the fictional proposition that Anglesey drifts away from the mainland.....Now, it would appear, we are about to see the nightmare political manifestation of that detachment.

I'm sure The Druid is right in his prognosis of the electoral outcome of the boundary changes. But the prospects of a Plaid Cymru-controlled Anglesey are just to awful to contemplate:-

1.Plaid Cymru is pacifist - so that's RAF Valley gone or, as party traditionalists might prefer, burned to the ground.
2. Plaid Cymru is anti-nuclear - so that's Wylfa B gone for the chop.
3.Plaid Cymru is the only political party which contrives to be both socialist and fascist at the same time.
4.Plaid Cymru's declared aim is to "build a national community based on equal citizenship and the equal worth of all individuals, whatever their race or nationality". Sounds great, except that it doesn't appear to apply to English immigrants to Wales who Gwynedd Councillor Seimon Glyn famously wanted to place under strict numerical controls.
5. Plaid Cymru also wants to a "bi-lingual society by promoting the revival of the Welsh Language" This ignores the fact that the population of Wales, of course, had the great good sense to begin abandoning the Welsh Language at the back-end of the 19th Century and have continued to do so ever since.

...So off it drifts, a backward-looking, Welsh-speaking, socialist, fascist, quasi-communist island where everyone is equal....equally poor.

Andrew said...

FAO: The English - Having a go at the Welsh is out of order.

May I draw your attention to the fact that a dozen of my mates where held captive in Kosovo serving Queen and Country with the Welsh Guards on peace keeping duties whilst Mark Thatcher was out in Equatorial New Guinea masterminding a military coupe in order to gain control of the mineral wealth.

They should have more emphasises on morals and compassion in English private schools as opposed to teaching them how to take advantage of the disadvantaged.

I love arguing with English toffs and find them extremely arrogant and easy to wind up.