Sense, Prudence, and Assassination Threats

Last week I attended the Adjudication Panel for Wales tribunal held at Tre-ysgawen Hall examining whether Cllr Peter Rogers had transgressed the respective codes of conduct of both the North Wales Police Authority (of which he is a member) and Anglesey County Council in light of his alleged behaviour at Holyhead Police Station in January 2010. Cllr Rogers had attended the station in support of a Rhosyr constituent of his who had been accused of threatening to assassinate another county councillor following a failed planning application. It was alleged that Cllr Rogers had sought to use his influence as a member of the Police Authority to gain an advantage for himself or others; and also that through having raised his voice at a Detective Constable, Cllr Rogers had behaved in a bullying or harassing manner. He was eventually cleared of all the above charges, and instead found guilty of the far lesser charge of having brought Anglesey Council and the office of councillor into disrepute and given the least consequential punishment possible: a slap on the wrist.

Although the tribunal itself was conducted in the very model of good sense and judgement, the same cannot be said in this instance of either the Police or the North Wales Police Authority which brought the original complaint against Cllr Rogers to the Ombudsman. The Police took over three months to investigate an obviously far-fetched claim then behaved in an unnecessarily heavy-handed manner in arresting, finger-printing, photographing, then keeping in the holding cells for several hours the man who had supposedly made the 'assassination' threat – even thought he presented himself at Holyhead Police Station willingly (Indeed this man suffered greatly because during the investigation he had also been prevented from continuing his job of teaching children with special needs how to play musical instruments). It was only when Cllr Rogers discovered that the Police had no corroborating evidence other than the original allegation that he is supposed to have shouted in exasperation, "you have no evidence", at the detective constable and said he wished to make an official complaint. The chairman of the tribunal in his summing-up pointedly remarked that the investigation "could and should have been brought to a close much earlier".

None of the Police Officers who gave evidence claimed that Cllr Rogers had explicitly stated he was a member of the Police Authority whilst speaking with them. The Police Authority's complaint to the Ombudsman was therefore entirely based on inference, i.e. as some of the Police Officers were aware that Cllr Rogers was a member of the Police Authority, they may have assumed that he was possibly acting on Police Authority business rather than as a councillor representing his constituent. It was on such a flimsy basis that North Wales Police Authority brought the original complaint to the Ombudsman's Office. So flimsy in fact that Mr Tal Michael, the Chief Executive of North Wales Police Authority (and known to readers of this blog from this episode), no doubt sensing which way the tribunal was likely to find, sought unprofessionally to introduce new evidence to the Tribunal at the very last moment to the evident disconcerture of Mr Peter Davies, the Tribunal Chairman. For his efforts, Mr Michael was gently but firmly "put in [his] place" by Mr Davies. The Tribunal found conclusively (and embarrassingly for the North Wales Police Authority) that the Police Authority code of conduct was not even engaged as Cllr Rogers was not present on Police Authority business nor did he give the impression that he was.

There were so many opportunities throughout this entire unhappy saga for sensible people to have shown some intelligence and discretion and thus avoided a huge and unnecessary waste of public money. The Police could indeed have brought their investigations into the ridiculous assassination allegations to a close much earlier with less disruption for everyone; the North Wales Police Authority could have discussed and resolved the 'shouting' issue with Cllr Rogers informally, rather than seeking to "throw the book at him" and thus triggering an expensive eighteen month investigation by the Ombudsman's Office and three day tribunal. The costs of everything, including the time of the Police Officers, barristers, clerks, Ombudsman's staff, various monitoring officers, rooms at Tre-ysgawen Hall etc. must be well into the hundreds of thousands of pounds of public money – money paid by all of us in tax. Unfortunately sense and prudence with public money was sadly lacking from all involved.

Declaration of Interest: Cllr Peter Rogers is a family friend and also endorsed my candidacy in this May's Welsh Assembly Elections.

Durkin's Black Swan?

Now that the Holyhead & Anglesey Mail has published the names of the protagonists in the Barrie Durkin "Tape-gate" controversy which I  wrote about last week (without naming names), I see no further need to hold back from identifying those concerned.

In essence Cllr Durkin claims to have have met with Cllr Bob Parry, leader of the Plaid Cymru group in Anglesey County Council and senior member of the new Alliance, in a car park in Llanerch-y-medd; during this meeting Durkin alleges that Parry encouraged him to investigate the the planning irregularities of Legal Services Director and Monitoring Officer, Lynn Ball, who lives near to Parry's ward of Bryngwran. Durkin further claims that he tape-recorded this conversation with Parry's knowledge. According to the Holyhead & Anglesey Mail Parry does not deny having met with Durkin in Llanerch-y-medd, but he says: "that was years ago and there certainly weren't any tape recorders about". Curiously the Mail does not press Parry to confirm or deny whether he did discuss Lynn Ball's planning irregularities with Durkin or not -- accordingly we are simply left with a big discussion regarding whether a tape of the conversation exists or not, rather than what was actually discussed at a meeting neither of them deny.

Anyway, does the tape exist or not? Durkin says it does but will not produce it "until I feel it's necessary and in my interest". Does Durkin's refusal to produce it prove that it doesn't exist? I hate to be get all philosophical about it, but here's what Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the celebrated author of "The Black Swan", has to say about 'negative empiricism':

"Seeing white swans does not confirm the nonexistence of black swans ... If I see a black swan I can certify that all swans are not white! If I see someone kill, then I can be practically certain that he is a criminal. If I don't see him kill, I cannot be certain that he is innocent. The same applies to cancer detection: the finding of a single malignant tumour proves that you have cancer, but the absence of such a finding cannot allow you to say with certainty that you are cancer-free."

I wonder if Clive McGregor and the members of Recovery Board are quite as philosophical about the whole affair? Anyway, I'll leave the last word to Cllr Peter Rogers who is completely accurate:

"It's quite appalling, if its true then Clive McGregor has no choice but to sack Bob, especially after Goronwy Parry was sacked for supporting him (Durkin). I don't know how much longer this can carry on before we get shut down".

The Anglesey Coup d'état - Day 4 News

With such dramatic changes going on at the Council you would think that our well-paid Council press office would, you know, tell us what's going on wouldn't you? Apparently not - the Council's news page's hasn't been updated since Friday. Good job the Druid is here to keep you all informed of the day's going ons:

• Clive McGregor has only been able to persuade three Original Independents to join his new group, Llais i Fôn: Thomas Jones, Robert Ll Hughes and Chairman of the Council, Selwyn Williams
• As a consequence, McGregor has sacked the following Original Independents portfolio holders from the Council Executive: Bryan Owen (Economic Development & Tourism), Ieuan Williams (Corporate Management), Aled Morris Jones (Planning), and Kenneth P Hughes (Education & Leisure)
• The remaining Original Independents have re-grouped under a new leader, Bryan Owen. They are listed in the above graphic.
• In the end, Gareth Winston Roberts and his Anglesey Forward group (William T Hughes and Derlwyn Hughes) refused to join McGregor's new Alliance.
• Accordingly, the Alliance is now composed of Llais i Fôn (4 members), Plaid Cymru (8 members), Labour (5 members), and the Menai Group (3 members) - making a total of 20 members. 
• As the council has 40 members in total, this means that the new Alliance does not command a majority - unless the Unaffiliated councillors provide support. However as McGregor has this year sacked the now Unaffiliated Elwyn Schofield, Barrie Durkin and Goronwy Parry they are unlikely to support him. Which leaves only Peter Rogers and Robert Ll Jones - and its unclear whether these unaffiliated councillors will support the Alliance or not.
• As McGregor's Llais i Fôn group has only 4 members, it now makes it a junior partner to both Plaid Cymru and Labour. Accordingly Plaid Cymru is the senior partner - it is therefore unsurprising that Plaid leader, Bob Parry, has been canvassing support to now usurp McGregor and become leader of the Council.
• One final oddity to report is that the Lib Dems on the council now find themselves in the ridiculous situation of being in two different groups: Selwyn Williams in Llais i Fôn and Aled Morris Jones in the re-formed Original Independents.

For all those councillors who are reading (and council press office staff too) you might like to know this blog has received numerous hits today from the Commission for Local Administration in Wales, the BBC, Trinity Mirror and the Houses of Parliament (Albert must have woken up).

More news when the Druid hears it...
         

Ieuan Wyn Jones and next year's Assembly elections

My record in predictions hasn't been too good this week so lets treat this post as conjecture rather than prediction...

Following the dramatically reduced Plaid Cymru vote in Ynys Mon this week, a pretty interesting discussion has been going on in comments below this post regarding whether Ieuan Wyn Jones will become vulnerable in his home seat at next year's Assembly elections. After all Plaid's candidate, Dylan Rees, polled a staggering 2,000 votes less than Eurig Wyn did five years ago - whilst the Tory candidate polled 4,000 more votes. Is this purely down to the unpopularity and unsuitability of the Plaid Candidate and the collapse of Peter Roger's vote? Possibly - but Plaid's vote throughout the whole of North Wales was slightly down and even the popular Elfyn Llwyd saw his vote drop by 6%. Perhaps we are witnessing a more fundamental change in North Wales which goes beyond the unpopularity of one candidate.

So what does this mean for Ieuan Wyn Jones at next year's Assembly elections? Firstly lets take a look at the Assembly results in Ynys Môn to date:

click to enlarge

Ieuan Wyn Jones won the inaugural 1999 election with more than 50% of the vote and the Druid remembers the seas of green in Anglesey pubs on the evening of the election. Since then IWJ's majorites have been more muted and hovered around the 10,000 mark - but it has to be noted that the turnout for the Assembly elections has also tumbled since 1999, probably because a lot of voters got bored after the novelty of the first election. Labour's vote has progressively declined at each election, and the Lib Dem vote completely collapsed in 2007. But look at the Conservative figures: up in 2003, and was arguably up again in 2007 and almost neck-and-neck with IWJ's if you add the Tory and Peter Rogers vote together.

Ah, you say, but Peter Rogers draws support from both the Tories and Plaid Cymru so you can't just add them together. Indeed that has always been the assumption (Eurig Wyn blamed his loss in 2005 on Peter Rogers), but lets take a look at this week's results: Despite Peter Rogers' personal vote falling by 2,000 votes it doesn't seem any of them went to Plaid Cymru - meaning that Rogers supporters must be mostly centre-right voters who, for whatever reason, preferred Rogers to the Conservative or UKIP candidates.

So, what will happen if Peter Rogers decides not to stand at next year's Assembly election? All things being equal it looks like the Conservative and Plaid Cymru vote could be very, very close indeed.

But here's the thing - all things won't be equal. In my opinion there will be four factors (three certain, one conjecture) which will make next year's Assembly election much more different than the last two:

• Next year Ieuan Wyn Jones will have to fight his first ever election as an officeholder and member of the Government. He is the First Deputy Minister of a Labour-Plaid coalition and he will have to fight on his record - a much more difficult prospect.
• The coming Assembly powers referendum will raise awareness of the importance of the Assembly and how it has more influence over the everyday lives of Welsh voters then Westminster - accordingly we can expect an increased turn out for next Year's election.
• Here comes the conjecture: suppose a Cameron led coalition or minority government (neither certain yet) decides to drop Cheryl Gillan and appoint Glyn Davies as Welsh Secretary instead. Glyn has just overturned Lembit Opik's 7,000 vote majority in Montgomeryshire and is a naturally charismatic, popular and respected dyed-in-his-roots Welsh (and Welsh speaking) politician. What's more is that he is also widely respected amongst amongst Plaid Cymru supporters (see here). If Glyn Davies was to achieve the same kind of ubiquity in the Welsh media as Peter Hain has in the same role then it would undoubtedly provide a powerful boost to the Conservative vote - especially in constituencies like Anglesey where it appears we are already seeing something of a surge in Conservative support.
• The final point which will set next year's Assembly election apart from previous ones will be by how much Wales will be effected by the Public Sector cuts to come - and to what extent they will be blamed on the incoming Westminster government, whatever shape that takes. Though interestingly if it is a Con-Lib coalition in Westminster and a Lab-Plaid coalition in Cardiff, none of the parties are going to be able to escape some involvement in the cuts.

So, there you are - no predictions, just some conjecture and food for thought for you.

Treaddur Bay Business Hustings Update

    
The Druid's spies are everywhere. And tonight they were at the Hustings held by the Federation of Small Businesses in the Treaddur Bay Hotel. One of them just called with the latest Ynys Môn election gossip:

• Albert Owen was berated by the assembled small business owners for Labour's planned National Insurance rise (definitely a tax on jobs according to a show of hands by those present) and also for this year's rise in Business Rates. The manager of Tre Ysgawen Hall revealed to gasps throughout the room how his rates had gone up from around £25,000 to £75,000 a year. Albert Owen tried to claim that the majority of Welsh businesses had seen their rates fall but was shouted down by the audience. Consequently he spent the majority of the hustings sat back in his seat, hands folded defensively, staring into space.
• Dylan Rees told the assembled entrepreneurs that it was incorrect to say that he has no business experience (he's obviously been reading the Druid). No, no, he said, as a Police Inspector he had to look after 40 officers, nine patrol cars, and deal with reams of paperwork - so it was just like running a company. The Druid begs to differ - there's a big difference between being a 'manager' and having the business acumen to develop products or services, find a market, take a financial risk, and make sales to meet a payroll. Its the business vision we need on Anglesey - not managerial experience of shuffling paperwork around for police cars.
• The Lib Dems' Matt Wood admitted that the Lib Dems were against nuclear power and Wylfa B. Apparently he had to as the moderator pointed out it was Lib Dem policy before asking him to speak. Strangely enough for a centre-left candidate he also apparently waffled on a lot about  Reaganomics.
• Apparently both Peter Rogers and the Conservative candidate, Anthony Ridge-Newman, talked with passion and were well received by the audience. Rogers was critical about IOACC's lack of a Local Development Plan (LDP) and the consequent "jobs which are locked-up in council filing cabinets". Ridge-Newman told the audience how a hung parliament would result in the scrapping of Wylfa B as this would be the price of the Lib Dems support in the event of a coalition government.

And the most astounding political revelation of the night?

Dylan Rees wears Sarkozy-style platform shoes...

         

Plaid Cymru & Peter Rogers - the saga continues

            
As per the Druid's post of last night, today's Daily Post does indeed contain a plea from Plaid's Ynys Môn candidate, Dylan Rees, for the Public Services Ombudsman to complete his inquiry as soon as possible (not online for some reason):

"I believe the electorate of Ynys Môn have the right to know whether Peter Rogers has done anything wrong and I urge the ombudsman to complete his inquiries as soon as possible so that the findings can be released before the general election"

Peter Rogers also responds in the Daily Post (not online):

"It is appalling Plaid Cymru have asked for the investigation to be rushed because of the election. This has to follow its proper course with the Ombudsman. I have been elated about the response of my supporters to this, they have really rallied around me. They are equally appalled by Plaid's tactics. As a former policeman Mr Rees should know better than to comment on matters like this while they are still in progress"

It is widely thought that Peter Rogers won just enough support amongst Anglesey's farmers to deny Plaid Cymru a victory at the 2005 general election - thus allowing Labour's Albert Owen to win the seat with a majority of just over 1000 votes. The events of the last couple of days prove that Plaid Cymru are fearful that another strong showing from Peter Rogers may once again rob them of a victory in Ynys Môn. They are right to be worried: their candidate is widely thought, even amongst Plaid supporters, to be weak (his latest press release demanding that David Cameron apologises for leaving Anglesey off the infamous tea towel is a good example of his vacuousness).

Plaid Cymru have consistently tried to present themselves during this election as an honest local alternative to the "same old parties, same old politics" of the "London parties". In that case they would show the Ynys Môn electorate more respect if they tried to win this election with their policies and not by desperately trying to have another candidate disqualified.
    

Assassination threats, old photos and other dirty tactics (updated)

An attendee of Peter Rogers' campaign launch tonight kindly phoned the Druid to report on the events of the evening. Apparently the meeting was well attended by over 60 or more people and served up some interesting revelations:

• It was revealed that the reason why Peter Rogers is being investigated by the Public Services Ombudsman is because an unnamed County Councillor has apparently baselessly accused Peter Rogers of threatening to "assassinate" him
• Peter believes that the news of this investigation was purposely leaked to the media by "political opponents" in order to undermine him
• A local newspaper (the Daily Post?) will apparently carry a letter tomorrow from Plaid Cymru's candidate, Dylan Rees, demanding that the Ombudsman adjudicates on the complaints against Peter Rogers prior to the election in the hope that he (Peter Rogers) will be disqualified from standing
• On top of all this - and perhaps the most underhand - is the relevation that apparently Plaid Cymru have complained to the BBC that the photo they have of Peter Rogers is too old and that a new one should be used - presumably in the hope that a post heart-op Peter Rogers will look more infirm in the photo

Firstly, the Druid personally finds it hard to believe that a 70 year old man recently out of hospital following a serious heart operation would "threaten to assassinate" anyone. I wonder how much money is being wasted by both the Police and Public Services Ombudsman investigating this allegation?

Secondly, judging by Peter's reported remarks this evening, Plaid Cymru are trying to make as much political capital out of this as possible. For instance we already know from yesterday's news reports that whilst all other political parties contesting Anglesey in the general election declined to comment on the news, only Plaid Cymru felt the need to put the boot in. Here's an extract:

"John Wyn Jones, press officer for Plaid Cymru Ynys Môn, speaking on behalf of the party's parliamentary candidate Dylan Rees, said "Mr Rogers has proved to be a politician who is unable to work with other people, whether it be the Conservative party or his colleagues in local government. This isolation means that he is unable to deliver for the people he represents."

Perhaps this is to be expected in the rough and tumble of a general election - however to my mind its very, very dirty indeed to purposefully complain to the media that they must update the photo they have of a candidate recently released from hospital following a heart operation. If it is true Plaid Cymru should be totally ashamed of themselves.
    
UPDATE: My informant who attended the above event may have gotten hold of the wrong end of the stick. A comment by Cllr Barrie Durkin on this blog states:

"Peter Rogers was only at the police station, in support of the arrested person who made the threats, as he was one one of Peter Rogers constituents. 

The Complaint by the Police Authority about Peter relates solely to his alleged behaviour whilst at the Police Station. and nothing else.

Any suggestion that he made any sort of threat to assassinate anyone is untrue."

If this is the case, the Druid is happy to put the record straight.  

Peter Rogers to launch general election campaign tonight

        
Despite the fact that he is being investigated by the Public Services Ombudsman being leaked to the press yesterday, Peter Rogers will this evening officially launch his general election campaign in Gaerwen. More to follow...
  

++ Peter Rogers being investigated by Public Services Ombudsman ++

    
From BBC News:
  
A parliamentary candidate in Ynys Môn is being investigated by the Public Services Ombudsman for Wales after a complaint by North Wales Police.
Peter Rogers, an independent, is also a local councillor and represents Anglesey council on North Wales Police Authority.
The complaint follows an incident at Holyhead Police station when Mr Rogers accompanied a constituent.
Mr Rogers has confirmed that he has no plans to stand down as a candidate.
He has also threatened to make an official complaint of his own about the way the police were dealing with the matter.
Mr Rogers told BBC Wales: "I'm disappointed that this information has been leaked to the media at a time when I'm a candidate in the election.
No comment
"The ombudsman must be allowed to conduct his investigation without being hampered by politically motivated leaks."
A spokesperson for Anglesey council said: "We can confirm that a complaint has been made by North Wales Police regarding Councillor Peter Rogers and that the ombudsman is investigating the matter."
A spokesman for North Wales Police authority said: "We can confirm that a complaint is being considered by the ombudsman."
The ombudsman's office confirmed that they have received a complaint about Mr Rogers and are currently investigating.
Albert Owen, the Labour parliamentary candidate in the Ynys Môn constituency, said: "I don't know the details and have no comment to make"
John Wyn Jones, press officer for Plaid Cymru Ynys Môn, speaking on behalf of the party's parliamentary candidate Dylan Rees, said "Mr Rogers has proved to be a politician who is unable to work with other people, whether it be the Conservative party or his colleagues in local government.
"This isolation means that he is unable to deliver for the people he represents."
A Conservative party spokesman said: "This a matter for Mr Rogers, North Wales Police and the Public Services Ombudsman. It would not be appropriate to comment at this stage."

        

Peter Rogers tosses hand grenade at Anglesey County Council

      
Demonstrating that the civil war at Anglesey County Council is a long way from over, unaffiliated councillor for Rhosyr and Independent candidate in the general election, Peter Rogers, had a remarkable letter published in the Daily Post yesterday.

In it he:

• Calls for the councillors who have been criticised by the Ombudsman to be named and shamed;
• Blasts Anglesey AM Ieuan Wyn Jones for failing to personally respond in the Welsh Assembly to a statement about the problems at Anglesey County Council;
• Asks why Ieuan Wyn Jones has not instigated disciplinary hearings against Plaid Cymru councillors on the council, particularly Deputy Council Leader Cllr Bob Parry, for (a) their part in this expenses scandal; and (b) for condoning the "appalling behaviour of certain councillors"

Here is the letter in full:

I applaud your recent published letters from Anglesey residents, angered that Anglesey Councillors have not been named and shamed. Your paper has recently named a clutch of councillors, whom the Ombudsman has found have charges to answer, and there are certainly more to be named.

This slow, drip-drip of disclosures of the misdemeanours of we councillors just prolongs any early recovery.

All the huffing, puffing and posturing by successive Ministers of Local Government in the Assembly count for absolutely nothing.

The Assembly's involvement in the shenanigans of Anglesey councillors is nothing short of a disgrace.

What else should the people of Anglesey expect, when our own Assembly Member and Deputy First Minister, Ieuan Wyn Jones, does not even rise in the Chamber to respond to the last statement by the minister, on Anglesey County Council's elected members?

He simply ignores it and allowed a fellow Assembly Member - a Dr Lloyd - to respond. What a snub to Ynys Môn.

Questions must be asked why the local Plaid AM has not instigated disciplinary action against his Plaid councillors, its Leader, and, incidentally, the Deputy Leader of the Authority, Cllr Bob Parry, particularly over the expenses jolly to South Wales, and this is followed by their total support for the unacceptable 4.5% increase in the rates.

Their support for swimming pool closures and the apparent acceptance of of the appalling behaviour of certain councillors has been to the detriment of his Authority. We now also have an ongoing, highly expensive investigation by a South Wales planning consultant into two recent planning applications and also over the conduct of certain planning committee members. Honestly, you could not make it up!

No wonder the Anglesey ratepayers are calling for action.

Ieuan Wyn Jones should be addressing the crisis which is engulfing Ynys Môn - which already has the lowest GDP in Europe - and not worry about addressing the nation in the run up to the election.

He should remember that charity begins at home.

Cllr Peter S Rogers, Ynys Môn

We certainly haven't heard the last of this...
  

++ Peter Rogers WILL stand in General Election ++

  

  

A little bird has informed the Druid that despite his recent surgery ex-Tory Independent Peter Rogers has now confirmed to family and friends that he WILL be standing in the General Election.
    

The Druid gets a bad review & my reply

     

The Druid returned home to Môn from his travels last night to find this comment:

Ouch! Dishonest and insincere, am I? Permit me to reply:

My dearest La Pasionara, its strange that you would think that "fighting for Ynys Môn" should mean bashing the Conservatives or Peter Rogers. As you may have noticed Anglesey hasn't been represented by a Conservative MP since 1987 -- 23 years ago -- nor has there been a Conservative administration in the UK since 1997 -- 13 years ago. What I'm concerned with is the CURRENT state of Anglesey and those who bear political responsibility for it NOW. And, La Pasionara, like it or not, the facts are:

• Ynys Môn has now been represented by Plaid Cymru's Ieuan Wyn Jones as either MP or AM for the past 23 years
• The UK has had a Labour government in Westminster since 1997 and Ynys Môn has had a Labour MP in the shape of Albert Owen since 2001
• The Welsh Assembly has been governed by Labour since 1999 until the emergence of a Labour/Plaid Cymru coalition in 2007

Therefore, La Pasionara, the truth is that Ynys Môn has been administered at some level by Labour and Plaid Cymru for almost quarter a century, yet you think that as an Anglesey resident I should somehow be directing my ire on the Conservatives or Peter Rogers for the Island's woes?

Speaking of which, lets remind ourselves of what exactly the Island's woes are:

• Anglesey is the poorest county in the UK with a GDP per head of only half of the UK average according to the Office of National Statistics;
• Anglesey has the lowest GVA per head in the UK at just 53% of the UK’s average; 
• Anglesey is poorer than some of the poorest parts of Poland according to a recent OECD report;
• Data for full-time employees show that average earnings in Anglesey were approximately £396 per week in 2007, compared with £415 per week in Wales and £456 per week in the UK. It should also be pointed out that gross average earnings were distorted by wages paid to employees at Wylfa and Anglesey Aluminium, which are substantially higher than other wages in the area. 
• But we don't have to worry about Anglesey Aluminium distorting average earnings on the Island anymore because it has been forced to close wiping out at least 450 jobs directly and an estimated further 240 jobs through indirect and induced effects;
• In addition Anglesey has also lost Octel in Amlwch, Eaton Electric in Holyhead, Peboc in Llangefni and Welsh Country Foods has restructured in Llangefni and Gaerwen losing thousands of more jobs;
• A rising unemployment rate currently standing at 5.8% and economic inactivity rate of 25.1% - even before most of the above companies closed; 
• Remarkably farming in North Wales has fared even worse than the economy. During the period 1997 to 2007, the economic contribution of agriculture to the North Wales and Anglesey economy fell by a staggering 67% compared to an overall UK decline of just 7%;
• On top of all this, Anglesey County Council is poorly managed, riven with infighting, and planning on raising Council Tax by 15% over three years - though with almost everyone apart from Council workers out of a job, the Druid wonders who is going to pay it.

So lets be clear: its not just that the situation on Anglesey is just a little rubbish - the situation on Anglesey is arguably the WORST in Wales and in the UK as a whole. Thats what drives the Druid.

Yet despite the situation being as bad as it is, both Labour and Plaid Cymru - responsible for Anglesey for most of the last quarter of a Century - refuse to accept any portion of the blame. Indeed as recently as just two weeks ago on the Politics Show special edition on Anglesey, when asked whether Labour was responsible for any of the problems on Anglesey, Albert Owen replied:

"No, I came into politics in the 80s when it was a damn sight worse than it is now, we have to be honest about that. There was mass unemployment and mass depopulation in the 80s and 90s. Its certainly a lot better now."

Got that? Nothing to do with Labour at all - and anyway things were much worse under those nasty Tories 30 years ago... Unbelievable. As I've pointed out before, the 80s were rough but all of the companies which have closed in the last couple of years managed to survive the 80s, and are only closing now. That must tell us something about the current business environment and the policies which have been implemented from Westminster and Cardiff for the past 13 years. Plus when you are now officially the poorest place in the UK things by definition can't have been any worse - or at least have not improved.

So, La Pasionara, if you would like to explain to me why I should attack the Conservatives and Peter Rogers more than Labour and Plaid Cymru for the current problems in Anglesey I'm happy to listen to your arguments. Otherwise, change your ID as frankly you're giving Dolores Ibárruri a bad name.
    

Peter Rogers: waiting for Doctors advice on whether to stand

 

There is a very interesting analysis of Ynys Môn in politics.co.uk which features interviews with all three major candidates. I will be returning to it in more depth later, but in the meantime the part which really jumps out is this:

At present Rogers' participation in the election is not 100% guaranteed. Recent heart surgery means he is awaiting doctors' advice on whether or not he should put himself through the strain of a full-on general election campaign.

The article is datelined today (6 March) so I assume this is the latest information. Obvious that after such a major operation he would await doctors orders I suppose, but slightly at odds with the bullish interview Peter recently gave to the BBC on the The Politics Show.
 

New Poll: Labour's Albert Owen to hold Ynys Môn in General Election?

I don't know - you go away for five minutes and YouGov publishes a new Wales-only voting intention poll...! Accordingly, for your benefit, the Druid has temporarily interrupted his short trip and crunched the regional numbers to find out what is happening in North Wales. So here is a graph showing the transition of support for the main parties in the North since the General Election in 2005 up to and including today's latest poll:

The big news is that Plaid's Support in the North has unexpectedly and dramatically nosedived 7 points since the last poll in mid-January, putting them on just 10% - even lower even than the Lib Dems. Of course the sample size in North Wales of around 250 people is quite small so there is room for error but, still, 7 points is a large drop. The Druid would guess that it may be due to Plaid Cymru's ridiculous pensions pledge being quite correctly seen as misleading fantasy politics - which as the Druid said at the time makes Plaid look like not a serious party.

The other news is that at the expense of Plaid Cymru both the Labour and Conservative vote is up. What does this mean for the General Election result in Ynys Môn? Using exactly the same formula which the Druid used for the last poll, the change on the 2005 General Election results are shown below (bottom row):

Of course the situation across the whole of North Wales is not homogenous, but these results are the best guide we have. Therefore, again assuming that Peter Rogers does not stand (although there is no evidence that this is the case) and his support swings behind the Conservatives, this is what the new polling data predicts for Ynys Môn:

The result: A Labour hold for Albert Owen with Plaid and the Conservatives fighting it out for second place with just a couple hundred votes between them. 

I'm going to be looking into all these latest YouGov figures in more detail as soon as I get back to Anglesey, but in the meantime it looks like 'squeaky bottom time' for Plaid's Dylan Rees who until recently was widely thought (by himself included) to be a shoo-in for the seat.

   

Anglesey special feature on the BBC Politics Show

  

With Ynys Môn within reach at the general election for Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives, it was singled out for a special feature on the weekly BBC 'Politics Show' on Sunday with correspondent Max Cotton despatched to explain what makes Anglesey just so different from the rest of the country. You can watch it here on iPlayer (beware BBC programmes expire after just seven days).

Cotton concludes that the defining characteristics of Anglesey residents is that they are "very, very welsh", are not NIMBY-ish, and they like nuclear power and low flying jets. Max also interviewed each of the four main candidates and here are the highlights (interjected with the Druid's comments):

ALBERT OWEN (Labour) 

Max Cotton: I think everyone I've spoken to here has said that jobs and regeneration are the two huge issues. We've had a Labour government for 13 years, is it your fault? Is it Tony Blair's fault that Anglesey is suffering?

Albert Owen: No, I came into politics in the 80s when it was a damn sight worse than it is now, we have to be honest about that. There was mass unemployment and mass depopulation in the 80s and 90s. Its certainly a lot better now.

The Druid: A lot better now? Are you serious, Albert? Was it really worse in the 80s? I don't think so - and here's why:

• Anglesey Aluminium started smelting in 1971 and continued production all the way through the 80s and 90s, only closing with a loss of 400 jobs in September 2009
• The Wylfa Nuclear Powerstation was also commissioned in 1971, carried on through the 80s and 90s and is now only months away from being decommissioned
• The Octel chemical plant in Amlwch began production in 1953 and continued through the 80s and 90s (under various different names) until it closed in 2005
• The Eaton Electric plant in Holyhead opened in 1960 under the name Midland Electric Manufacturing Company, it operated all through the 80s and 90s and only closed in December 2009 with a loss of 250 jobs
• The Peboc Eastman chemical plant in Llangefni was established in 1970, continued production all through the 80s and 90s, and only closed its doors in 2008 with a loss of 100 jobs
• Anglesey is an island of farmers, yet the economic contribution of agriculture in North Wales (including Anglesey) has declined by a staggering 67 per cent during the period 1997-2007, compared to an overall UK decline of just 7 per cent. You only need to compare a visit to the Morgan Evans livestock auctions in the 80s or 90s with one now to see how things have declined
• This decimation of agriculture on Anglesey has directly affected the abattoir and meat-packaging plant in Gaerwen (now called Welsh Country Foods and part of the Vion Group) which began operating back in 1980s and continued throughout that decade and the 1990s; it has only begun downsizing this year with a loss of 200 jobs; the chicken processing plant in Llangefni, commonly known as 'Chuckies' and owned by the same company was established even earlier and also continued production throughout the 80s and 90s, until it lost a whole shift (140 jobs) last year 
• Throughout the 80s and the 90s, the High Street of Anglesey's main market town, Llangefni, was bustling and enjoyed a vibrant street market on Thursdays. Back then there was hardly a single closed shop, yet now at least half of the storefronts are closed or converted to charity shops and the Thursday market is a shadow of itself (see here). Furthermore, Bangor may not be on the island but Anglesey residents have long travelled over the bridge to shop there - now Bangor High Street, also bustling with activity in the 80s and 90s, is rapidly resembling a ghost town (as the Druid has discussed here)

Please note: I'm not saying that everything was tickety-boo on Anglesey in  the 80s and 90s - but to say things were worse then than they are now, as Albert Owen is trying to do, is demonstrably false. All of the above large-scale businesses weathered the 80s and 90s and are only closing now, with a loss of thousands of jobs.

Anyway, I digress. Back to the interview:

Max Cotton: But you've been losing jobs and employers, haven't you?

Albert Owen: We've been losing a couple of employers in the last year as has everywhere, this global crisis has hit Anglesey hard, no ifs or buts about it, but we've got to take the brave decisions.

A couple of employers??! Albert Owen must either think that Anglesey residents don't watch the Politics Show or thinks we are all idiots.

PETER ROGERS (Independent)

The good news is that Peter Rogers is out of hospital following his heart op and recovering; the bad news is that he looks visibly frail.

Max Cotton: Nobody's rung you to say 'please don't do this, Peter'?
Peter Rogers: They are too ashamed of what they have done to me, too ashamed of the success I've had since I left the Conservatives.
MC: And its not resentment, its not bitterness on your part?
PR: Not at all, I think its wrong of you to challenge me on that...
MC: ...no, no, I'm just trying to find out what your motivations are in the nicest possible way...
PR: ...Yeah, yeah. I'm taking votes from all the Partys; I've got a lot of people who are nationalists who see me as a Sensible Nationalist. We need someone to lead, to change the image of Ynys Mon, and I believe that Peter Rogers can change that image.

So, it looks like health problems notwithstanding, Peter Rogers will be standing again at the general election...

DYLAN REES (Plaid Cymru)

Max Cotton interviewed Dylan Rees standing outside RAF Valley, ostensibly to make the point that Plaid Cymru have links with CND and are against having UK military bases on Welsh soil.

Dylan Rees: We are a broad church party. What really unites us is our passion, our vision. I have excellent links and ties with the personnel of RAF Valley and I think they do a wonderful job.
Max Cotton: Plaid Cymru doesn't like nuclear power though, do they?
Dylan Rees: Plaid Cymru, if it had a choice, would  not want to see nuclear power, but how can I as a representative, or any political representative here on Anglesey, in the dire economic situation we find outselves in turn down the possibility of 5000 construction jobs and 800 to 1000 permanent well paid jobs?

Once you've gotten over the shock that Dylan didn't mention Post Offices once, what he basically said is: "our principles are against nuclear power and military bases, but we will ignore our principles just to get elected".

ANTHONY RIDGE-NEWMAN (Conservative)

We didn't see much of Anthony Ridge-Newman, but this is what he had to say:

Ridge-Newman: I come from an entrepreneurial background, my father is an entrepreneur, and I've had experience in business in the City in London and throughout the UK; I travelled around as a corporate presenter and I've done lots of things around the country in terms of business and economics and I want to bring that experience across the bridge into Anglesey; I want to get people working, I want to get people with creative ideas building businesses becoming entrepreneurs themselves and thats what the Conservatives are best at, and I think thats my strength.

The BBC didn't interview the ex-Barman from St Asaph, or maybe they did and just didn't show us that part. Anyway, no great loss.

All interesting stuff and the Druid particularly enjoyed the haunting Celtic music and references to his fellow Druids of yore - although Max Cotton made the common mistake of confusing the Bryn Celli Ddu burial mound with Druidism. Tut tut, one expects better than tired cliches from our National Broadcaster. Which brings me on to Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychgwyndrobwyllllantysiliogogogoch. Is it really obligatory to have references to it in every single programme about Anglesey?

Peter Rogers in Hospital

The Druid hears that the charismatic Independent, Peter Rogers, who captured 15% of the vote at the 2005 General Election in Anglesey has been hospitalised for a heart bypass operation.

Peter was Conservative AM for North Wales from 1999-2003 but resigned from the party after being placed 7th on the party list in 2003. Since 2004 he has been an Independent councillor representing the Rhosyr ward. He stood as in Independent in 2005 General Election both splitting the Conservative vote and probably denying Plaid Cymru the seat through carrying the farmers' vote.

Until very recently he has been heard to say "if I'm fit, I'll stand" regarding the 2010 General Election too. He's currently 70 years of age and it remains to be seen if this latest hospitalisation will make him reconsider. If he doesn't stand Anglesey becomes a three-way marginal with just a few hundred votes between Labour, Plaid and the Conservatives.

The Druid wishes him a speedy recovery. Anglesey needs him.
  

Are you local?

     
Cambria Politico has taken newly appointed Ynys Môn Conservative Candidate, Anthony Ridge-Newman, to task:

ARE THE Tories committing political suicide in Anglesey?

And even if the party is not committing suicide on the island, their choice of a rank outsider who has probably hardly been to the island, or indeed to Wales, demands that the gent concerned must be politically neutered before he sets foot in parliament.

According to the way that the Commons is currently operating, any MP from Wales can help strike down law-making proposals produced by the democratically-elected Assembly in Cardiff.

Unless Mr  Anthony Ridge-Newman, the newly-selected Tory candidate from Surrey, can reveal that he knows a hell of a lot about Wales, he should take a string of cotton to the Commons when (more probably, if) he ever enters it.  With the aid of a needle, he should tightly sow his mouth shut so that he never has any effect on anything to be with the governance of this country.

Ridge-Newman replies here:

For many personal reasons, my family roots in Pontycymmer are very special to me and my late mother.  If I had been a girl (no jokes please!) my mother would have named me after my Grandma Rachel Williams who was born and grew up on Cuckoo Street, Pontycymmer.  My cousin (the first girl of my generation) got the honour instead. The last time I was there, was not long before my mother died. She wanted me to take her there for obvious reasons. Every time we go there, it becomes more like a ghost town.  This has saddened me and is what has inspired me to get involved in the future of Wales. 

So what have we learned by this spat? That the Tories might have selected a Rachel Ridge-Newman instead? Not particularly illuminating. The Druid wants to hear about something called P-O-L-I-C-I-E-S, or in layman's language: "How the bloody hell do any of the parties propose to get Ynys Môn out of this mess"?

Anyway, as this discussion of who comes from where will obviously run and run on the island, lets take a look at all the candidates:

- Albert Owen (Labour): Holyhead, Anglesey
- Dylan Rees (Plaid Cymru): Carmarthenshire, South Wales
- Anthony Ridge-Newman (Conservative): Worcestershire, England
- Matt Wood (lib Dem): St Asaph, North Wales
- Peter Rogers (Independent): Wrexham, North Wales  
And a bonus extra: Ieuan Wyn Jones (Plaid Cymru AM for Anglesey): Denbigh, North Wales

So actually only Albert Owen is really from Anglesey. Its certainly a worrying sign that the island has not been able to generate more than one home-grown candidate - what does this say for any of the Political party's engagement with Ynys Môn residents? 

Anyway, can we now move on to discussing policy please?

         

Some Electoral Arithmetic for Ynys Môn (updated)

    

      Prompted by the Ynys Môn Conservatives selection of Anthony Ridge-Newman, the Druid has been checking the odds William Hill is offering on the Anglesey election result:

                          Now             Nov '09

Plaid Cymru           1/3                1/3
Labour                  9/4                5/2
Conservative          12/1              10/1
Lib Dem                100/1            100/1

So, the Conservatives’ selection of an English candidate has lengthened their odds from 10/1 to 12/1, whilst the Labour odds have shortened very slightly to 9/4. But as far as William Hill are concerned at 1/3 Plaid Cymru’s Dylan Rees is Red Rum - he’s a racing certainty.

But are we really so sure that the results are this certain?

Wales-only Voting Intention polls are pretty thin on the ground, but YouGov published their first last November, and here are the headline figures for All-Wales (the comparison is with the 2005 General Election results in Wales):

Con 31% (+9.6)
Lab 34% (-8.7)
LD 12% (-6.4)
PC 15% (+2.4)

Now, in predicting the 2010 general election results in Ynys Môn, All-Wales polls aren’t actually all that helpful as Wales isn’t really a very homogenous place. North West, Mid and West Wales leans strongly towards Plaid Cymru, Labour is strong in the North and the South, with Conservative support picking up towards the borders with England. Luckily the November ’09 YouGov poll also include a break down of these results regionally. The North Wales results were:

Con 40%
Lab 29%
LD 10%
PC 16%

Now, if we compare these poll results with the actual 2005 election results in North Wales, we get the following figures (look at the bottom 2 lines of the chart):

click image to enlarge

The Plaid Cymru vote is pretty steady with the Lib Dems are slipping some 5%. However, the big news is a MASSIVE 13.3% swing from Labour to Conservative in North Wales.

What does this mean for Ynys Môn?

Of course the situation isn’t really homogenous in North Wales either but, frankly, its the best guide we can get from the data available. So, if for the sake of argument we assume that Peter Rogers decides not to stand (a very big assumption) and his support from 2005 swings behind the Conservatives, this is what this polling data predicts for Ynys Môn:

So what can we conclude?

• Ynys Môn in 2010 is a three-way-marginal. If Peter Rogers decides not to stand, there only looks to be about 400 votes between Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives. 
• But we know that Peter Rogers not only split the Conservative vote in 2005 - he also took some Plaid Votes. If those voters fall in behind Plaid Cymru then Dylan Rees will just overtake Albert Owen and will be our next MP.
• If however Peter Rogers DOES stand this year then the Conservatives are doomed and it will be a straight fight between Labour and Plaid - and probably much, much closer than William Hill is calling it.

Ynys Môn in 2010 is on a knife edge...
      
UPDATE: Another YouGov Wales-only voting intention poll, commissioned by ITV, has just come out here. The headline All-Wales figures are:

Con 32% (+1)
Lab 35% (+1)
LD 13% (+1)
PC 13% (-2)

YouGov don't seem to have published the regional data yet, but as soon as they do the Druid will re-compute the Ynys Môn 2010 prediction accordingly.

UPDATE 2: YouGov how now published the regional data of their latest Wales-only poll here. The figures for North Wales are:

Con 33% (-7)

Lab 34% (+5)

LD 11% (+1)

PC 17% (+1)

The comparisons are with the previous November YouGov Wales poll we discussed avbove. The North Wales sample is only a very small 236 people so there is more than enough room for error - however if we calculate the change from the 2005 General Election results as before we get:

Using this swing data to recalculate the predicted Ynys Môn result this year (with all the same assumptions as earlier) we get:

The Conservatives now seem to be out of it - with or without Peter Rogers standing - and it looks like a pretty close fight between Labour and Plaid Cymru - Albert Owen still has everything to fight for.

  
UPDATE 3: Thanks to Meurig in comments for pointing out that YouGov does not include the Meirionydd Nant Conwy area in their definition of 'North Wales'. The Druid has recalculated accordingly to give a more accurate prediction. So the revised YouGov North Wales numbers compared with 2005 General Election results in North Wales (excluding Meirionydd Nant Conwy) are as follows:

And the revised Ynys Môn predicted result based on these updated numbers are:

The gap between Labour and Plaid Cymru is now down to less than 100 votes. Dylan Rees may or may not be Red Rum - but its going to be a photofinish!