Labour, Kinnock and North Wales Polls

As the latest ITV Wales/YouGov Welsh Survey was released this week [pdf], I have updated the Druid North Wales Voting Intention tracker accordingly:

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It appears that Labour received a significant boost from the extra media coverage it received of its conference and leadership election results. All other parties pretty much as they were last month. Of course the sample for North Wales is quite small so we shouldn't read too much into these voting intention figures but they are the best we Gogs have.

Incidentally this month's YouGov survey also asked some interesting questions regarding whether people were more or less likely to vote for Labour with either Ed or David as leader; here are the results for North Wales in comparison to Wales as a whole:

It appears that it makes little difference to North Wales voters which Miliband is leading Labour although the rest of Wales shows a slight preference for Ed. However the biggest difference between Gogs and the rest of Wales is that a much higher proportion of us (50% vs 37%) said we'd wouldn't vote for Labour in future elections anyway. Perhaps the recent increased media coverage of Lord Kinnock has put us off.

North Wales Voting Intention Poll Update

Below is the updated North Wales voting intention poll updated with the latest ITV Wales/YouGov figures:

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The number of North Wales residents planning to vote for Plaid Cymru has been gradually rising since May and the 26% figure is the highest I've seen since I started to keep an aggregate of North Wales polls.  Reflecting the national trend, the Lib Dems have now dipped to 9%, the lowest figure for them we have seen.

In terms of more powers for the Welsh Assembly, interestingly North Wales is still the Welsh region most opposed to further powers for the Welsh Assembly with 39% intending to vote against and 44% for in next year's referendum.

You can see the results in detail here (pdf).

Is Labour support really surging in North Wales?

  
Below is the Druid's North Wales Poll Tracker incorporating the latest ITV Wales/YouGov survey:

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As has been widely reported in the press, Labour's Welsh surge is also clearly visible in North Wales with apparently 45% of N.Wales constituency voters now backing Labour - the highest figure by some margin since the Druid started this tracker. In contrast both Tory and LibDem support has fallen, with Plaid Cymru picking up somewhat.

Frankly I think this poll is clearly an outlier, and the reason is this: according to the very same poll, 47% of people in North Wales think that either George Osborne's budget cuts are "about right" or "have not gone far enough" - the highest regional support figures of any region in Wales. Similarly, the percentage of people opposed, who think Osborne has "gone too far in trying to reduce the deficit", is just 39% - considerable below the all Wales average of 43%. Accordingly its not clear why Labour's support should  have leapt over 10 points in North Wales since the general election. I fully expect to see Labour's support fall back closer to 35% in the next poll.

Regarding the question of giving the National Assembly increased law-making powers, YouGov finds that North Wales voters are the most sceptical in Wales with 35% planning to vote 'no' - compared to the all-Wales average of just 28%. Furthermore, with only 48% of N.Wales voters planning to vote 'yes', this is the second lowest support figure in Wales. This is very surprising when you consider that the BBC "Wales Devolution" poll carried out in March this year actually found that North Wales residents are much more pro-Assembly and anti-Westminster than any other part of Wales. There is clearly something wrong with either or both of these polls as both results cannot be true.
    
You can find the raw data for the YouGov poll here.
    

Last Wales Poll before the Election (Updated)

    
ITV Wales have just published the topline results of the last Wales voting intention poll before tomorrow's general election:

CON      27% (+4)
LAB      35% (+2)
LDEM   23% (-6)
PLAID  10% (+1)

The comparisons are with the YouGov Wales poll of April 19th at the height of Cleggmania - it seems the Welsh electorate have now pretty much returned to their senses.

UPDATE: YouGov have now also published the regional figures for North Wales, so here they are:

CON      33% (+9)
LAB       33% (-8)
LDEM   19% (+4)
PLAID   10% (-4)

The comparisons this time are with the actual North Wales General Election results of 2005. The big losers since 2005 are Labour (down 8 points) and Plaid (down 4 points). To give you an idea of how the voting intentions in North Wales have changed over the past 5 years, see the Druid's North Wales poll tracker below:

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At the time of the 3 March 2010 poll, there were many Plaid-supporting bloggers who claimed that the depressed Plaid Cymru figures for North Wales were purely down to YouGov's North Wales sample being too small. However, as the above poll tracker shows, Plaid's voting intention in North Wales has now consistently remained at 10% for the last three polls (3 March, 19 April, and 5 May). Furthermore, if these results are accurate, Plaid's claim that their polling figures have been adversely effected by not being included in the Leaders Debates does not hold water - at least not in North Wales. It is clear that Plaid's support slumped to 10% before the Leaders Debates and has remained there ever since. 

Of course, we will find out how accurate these polls are tomorrow...

     

The "Get Out Of Jail Free" card has expired.

  

Regular readers will know that following a post I wrote on whether Plaid Cymru will really have any additional influence in the event of a hung parliament, the Druid has been engaging in a bilingual discussion with BlogMenai (see here, here and BlogMenai's latest response here). Debate is healthy for a democracy - so here is the latest instalment:

Polling issues

It appears that BlogMenai has accepted that I did not cherry-pick polls to support my hypothesis as he originally claimed. Significantly he has also rowed back from his claim that certain polls show that Labour would be able to form a coalition government with just Plaid and the SNP without any need for the Lib Dems - this he now says is just "one possibility". True, anything is possible - but that does not mean that it is probable. And this was exactly the point I was making in my original post. Plaid's Ynys Môn candidate, Dylan Rees, wrote in a letter to the Daily Post that in the event of a hung parliament "Plaid Cymru will have an even more influential role to play" - in other words he presents it as a certainty, i.e. if there's a hung parliament Plaid will definitely be more influential and will definitely bring home the bacon, therefore vote for us. My post attempted to demonstrate that Rees's comments are deceptive because the probability of Plaid's support being essential to either a Conservative or Labour led coalition government are statistically remote. I don't want to repeat the whole thing here so please do read the original here, which I stand by.

The "Get Out Of Jail Free" card

BlogMenai goes on to say that I am wrong to suggest that Labour and Plaid Cymru have failed Anglesey despite them having been politically responsible for the Island for almost a quarter of a century. Don't those nasty Tories deserve a portion of the blame as they were in power from 1979-97 he asks?

This, as we know, is Labour and Plaid Cymru's all purpose "Get Out Of Jail Free" card as neither party are able to accept that Wales has any economic problems that weren't caused by the the last Tory government. Here's Labour's Albert Owen giving a demonstration par excellence on how to play the card on the Politics Show last month:

Politics Show Interviewer: I think everyone I've spoken to [in Anglesey] has said that jobs and regeneration are the two huge issues. We've had a Labour government for 13 years, is it your fault? Is it Tony Blair's fault that Anglesey is suffering?

Albert Owen: No, I came into politics in the 80s when it was a damn sight worse than it is now, we have to be honest about that. There was mass unemployment and mass depopulation in the 80s and 90s. Its certainly a lot better now.

See how it works? Playing the Get Out Of Jail Free card simultaneously allows the user to claim the moral high ground whilst at the same time abdicating himself of any responsibility whatsoever. Nuthin' to do with me, Guv - it was those nasty Tories.

Well, sorry, but after more than 13 years that particular "Get Out Of Jail Free" card has expired. In fact on Anglesey its arguable how relevant it ever was. The 80s and 90s were undoubtedly tough but almost all of Anglesey's main employers survived and have only begun closing over the past couple of years:

• Anglesey Aluminium started smelting in 1971 and continued production all the way through the 80s and 90s, only closing with a loss of 400 jobs in September 2009
• The Wylfa Nuclear Powerstation was also commissioned in 1971, carried on through the 80s and 90s and is now only months away from being decommissioned
• The Octel chemical plant in Amlwch began production in 1953 and continued through the 80s and 90s (under various different names) until it closed in 2005
• The Eaton Electric plant in Holyhead opened in 1960 under the name Midland Electric Manufacturing Company, it operated all through the 80s and 90s and only closed in December 2009 with a loss of 250 jobs
• The Peboc Eastman chemical plant in Llangefni was established in 1970, continued production all through the 80s and 90s, and only closed its doors in 2008 with a loss of 100 jobs
• Anglesey is an island of farmers, yet the economic contribution of agriculture in North Wales (including Anglesey) has declined by a staggering 67 per cent during the period 1997-2007, compared to an overall UK decline of just 7 per cent. You only need to compare a visit to the Morgan Evans livestock auctions in the 80s or 90s with one now to see how things have declined
• This decimation of agriculture on Anglesey has directly affected the abattoir and meat-packaging plant in Gaerwen (now called Welsh Country Foods and part of the Vion Group) which began operating back in 1980s and continued throughout that decade and the 1990s; it has only begun downsizing this year with a loss of 200 jobs; the chicken processing plant in Llangefni, commonly known as 'Chuckies' and owned by the same company was established even earlier and also continued production throughout the 80s and 90s, until it lost a whole shift (140 jobs) last year 

Whereas in the 80s and 90s these companies or industries were able to retrench during the hard times and then take on more employees when the economy recovered - that isn't going to happen this time as they are gone and its unclear where any new jobs are going to come from when the economy eventually recovers. That must tell us something about the current business environment and the policies which have been implemented from Westminster and Cardiff for the past 13 years. Plus when you are officially the poorest place in the UK things by definition can't have been any worse - or at least have not improved. As much as Labour and Plaid want to wriggle out of accepting any responsibility for this - they cannot. 

Plaid's Ieuan Wyn Jones has been either MP or AM for Anglesey for 23 years (!) and yet amazingly BlogMenai actually portrays his lack of results as a virtue. He says I'm advocating the "pork barrel" politics characteristic of Ireland or the US whereby elected representatives compete to bring large-scale projects (the so called "pork") back to their constituencies. Therefore according to BlogMenai's warped logic we should actually be praising Ieuan's integrity for having brought nothing back to the Island he's represented for 23 years...

...The alternative reason could of course just be that Ieuan Wyn Jones is not up to the job.

     

BlogMenai, Hung Parliaments and Statistical Gobbledegook

  

Mandy Rice-Davies: "Well he would, wouldn't he?"

BlogMenai has taken issue with the Druid's recent post analysing Plaid Cymru's claims that in the event of a hung parliament they could hold real influence. In my post I relied on the polling data available on the non-partisan poll aggregating site electoralcalculus.com and concluded that, in the event of a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party but short of an absolute majority, there is very, very little likelihood that the Conservatives would ever need to rely on Plaid Cymru votes - thus contradicting Plaid's central argument to voters in the run up to the General Election. You can read it all here.

BlogMenai - an openly Plaid Cymru supporting blog - completely dismisses the Druid's conclusions ("well he would, wouldn't he?" as Mandy Rice-Davies might have said) and goes on to claim that I rely on statistical gobbledegook and that the case I made is false for the following reasons:

1. I have used polls selectively to support my point and ignored those which don't fit in with my preferred conclusion; and
2. that I have used outdated polls.

To prove his point, BlogMenai then lists the results of a number of polls (without any attribution) which show a much smaller gap between the Conservatives and Labour than an aggregate of the polls of the month ending March 4th on which my post relied (my post was made on March 9th). BlogMenai then goes on to state - again without any supporting evidence - that some of the polls he lists point to Labour being able to form a coalition government with the support of just SNP and Plaid Cymru alone without needing the Lib Dems at all.

My reply

BlogMenai is certainly right to say that the polls have tightened but I'm afraid the claim that I somehow 'cherry picked' only those polls which supported my argument is patently false. The Druid wrote the post on March 9th, in response to a letter by Dylan Rees in the Daily Post the previous day, and based it on the non-partisan polls aggregator electoralcalculus.com which on the day of writing was aggregating polls for the month ending March 4th (electoralcalculus.com is only updated once or twice a month). Now electoralcalculus.com aggregates ALL the polls over the stated period so BlogMenai's claim that I somehow maliciously chose only those polls which supported my argument is so obviously false to be laughable.

But its worse than that. Whilst accusing your humble Druid of only selecting polls which support his argument, BlogMenai then goes on to (a) disregard the results of Angus Reid polls because (he claims) they are "untested in the UK" and "give Labour a much, much lower share than other conventional pollsters" and (b) makes his unfounded conclusions on the basis on a selection of polls of his choosing - the very definition of selecting polls to suit one's argument. This is particularly ironic considering BlogMenai piously concludes his post by saying that although he may be biased towards Plaid Cymru he would never stoop so low as to use statistics selectively to make a point. Really? It doesn't look that way.

That said BlogMenai is right to say that the polls are tightening so lets crunch the numbers again using the latest aggregated numbers from electoralcalculus.com - those for the period February 5th to March 18th (although I'm sure our cherry-picking friend BlogMenai will complain once again that they aren't recent enough or that a selection of polls chosen by himself show an even smaller Conservative lead):

So with these more recent polls, electoralcaculus.com predicts exactly the same number of seats for Plaid and the SNP as previously:

Plaid Cymru - 5 seats
SNP - 7 seats

Therefore between them Plaid and SNP are still likely to control a block of just 12 seats. Labour, based on electoralcalculus.com's same calculations would win 262 seats - i.e. 64 seats short of an absolute majority. In this case Labour would need the support of the Lib Dems (53 seats) and both Plaid and SNP (12 seats) together just to get a majority of just one seat. Doesn't sound anything like BlogMenai's glib statement that Labour can form a coalition government with the support of just SNP and Plaid Cymru alone, does it? (Incidentally, BlogMenai also fails to explain how exactly Plaid Cymru and the SNP will be able to work together on reforming the Barnett Fomula when even Plaid's Dafydd Wigley has noted that they would be working at cross purposes and would need to hold separate negotiations with the Tories. You didn't mention that point in your critique of my post, did you, BlogMenai. Didn't it fit in with your argument perhaps?)

Anyway, returning to the figures for a moment: the Conservatives (302 seats) are still able to form a coalition with just the Lib Dems (53 seats) - giving them a comfortable majority of 29 seats (whether they call it a formal coalition or not). So still no need for Plaid's votes and still no extra influence for Plaid in Westminster.

The Druid's political allegiance

BlogMenai's criticisms don't stop there however. He goes on to say that the Druid must be a Tory because I only attack Labour and Plaid Cymru. I don't know how many times I have to write this but the Conservatives have not had any influence over Anglesey since 1997 -- 13 years ago. What's the point of attacking them? What I'm concerned with is the CURRENT state of Anglesey and those who bear political responsibility for it NOW. And, like it or not, the facts are:

• Ynys Môn has now been represented by Plaid Cymru's Ieuan Wyn Jones as either MP or AM for the past 23 years
• The UK has had a Labour government in Westminster since 1997 and Ynys Môn has had a Labour MP in the shape of Albert Owen since 2001
• The Welsh Assembly has been governed by Labour since 1999 until the emergence of a Labour/Plaid Cymru coalition in 2007

Therefore, BlogMenai, the truth is that Ynys Môn has been administered at some level by Labour and Plaid Cymru for almost quarter a century, yet you think that as an Anglesey resident I should somehow be directing my fire on the Conservatives for the Island's woes? Anglesey is now officially the poorest county in the UK - the very definition of political failure - and BlogMenai's partiality to Plaid Cymru is obviously blinding him to the conclusion that Ieuan Wyn Jones HAS FAILED the residents of Anglesey.

The Druid's Challenge to BlogMenai

Anyway, the polls will no doubt continue to change between now and the general election so I will continue to crunch the poll numbers once a month and if it ever gets to a point were statistically the polls point to Plaid Cymru having any real influence I will plainly write so here. Furthermore if following the election there emerges a Labour coalition with just Plaid Cymru and the SNP - as BlogMenai predicts - then I'll eat my 'wisg las'. If on the other hand such a coalition fails to materialise then I look forward to a full apology from BlogMenai. Okay?

Finally my message to BlogMenai readers is this: if you want to read about the world as Plaid Cymru would dearly like it to be - go ahead and read BlogMenai; if, however, you want to read about the world as it really is, read the Druid.

UPDATE (23 March): BlogMenai has now responded to this post and you can read his reply (in Welsh) here. My response is coming soon...
  

New Poll: Labour's Albert Owen to hold Ynys Môn in General Election?

I don't know - you go away for five minutes and YouGov publishes a new Wales-only voting intention poll...! Accordingly, for your benefit, the Druid has temporarily interrupted his short trip and crunched the regional numbers to find out what is happening in North Wales. So here is a graph showing the transition of support for the main parties in the North since the General Election in 2005 up to and including today's latest poll:

The big news is that Plaid's Support in the North has unexpectedly and dramatically nosedived 7 points since the last poll in mid-January, putting them on just 10% - even lower even than the Lib Dems. Of course the sample size in North Wales of around 250 people is quite small so there is room for error but, still, 7 points is a large drop. The Druid would guess that it may be due to Plaid Cymru's ridiculous pensions pledge being quite correctly seen as misleading fantasy politics - which as the Druid said at the time makes Plaid look like not a serious party.

The other news is that at the expense of Plaid Cymru both the Labour and Conservative vote is up. What does this mean for the General Election result in Ynys Môn? Using exactly the same formula which the Druid used for the last poll, the change on the 2005 General Election results are shown below (bottom row):

Of course the situation across the whole of North Wales is not homogenous, but these results are the best guide we have. Therefore, again assuming that Peter Rogers does not stand (although there is no evidence that this is the case) and his support swings behind the Conservatives, this is what the new polling data predicts for Ynys Môn:

The result: A Labour hold for Albert Owen with Plaid and the Conservatives fighting it out for second place with just a couple hundred votes between them. 

I'm going to be looking into all these latest YouGov figures in more detail as soon as I get back to Anglesey, but in the meantime it looks like 'squeaky bottom time' for Plaid's Dylan Rees who until recently was widely thought (by himself included) to be a shoo-in for the seat.

   

The BBC 'devolution' poll - what makes North Wales different?

  
The BBC has carried out a poll to gauge the level of support in Wales for the Welsh Assembly. The headline results, with only 13% of respondents wanting the Welsh Assembly abolished, show how much Welsh public opinion has swung behind the concept of some kind of devolved government in Wales over the past 30 years:

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As the Druid is a 'Gog Blog' it is always interesting with all-Wales polls to see how the opinions of North Wales residents differ from those of Wales as a whole.

North Wales: pro-Assembly, anti-Westminster

North Wales residents are much more pro-Assembly and anti-Westminster than any other part of Wales: only 17% of North Wales respondents thought Westminster should have the most influence over Wales - much less than the 25% of West & Mid Wales respondents or 27% of SE Wales respondents. Similarly 69% of North Wales respondents thought that the Welsh Assembly should have the most influence over Wales - more than the 63% of West & Mid Wales respondents and just 57% of SE Wales respondents. Furthermore, just 6% of North Wales respondents agreed with the statement "Wales should remain in the UK and the Assembly should be abolished", compared with 12% and 16% of West & Mid Wales and SE Wales respondents. This is actually quite surprising as it has commonly been thought that there is a resentment in North Wales against the Assembly being located in a 'distant' South Wales - this is obviously no longer the case with the most unequivocal support for the Assembly actually coming from North Wales.

North Wales: comparatively anti-Labour, pro-Conservative except in reference to the economy

In response to the question "Putting aside your own party preference, which of the four main party leaders in Wales do you think has the qualities to be the best First Minister for Wales?", only 28% of North Wales respondents named Labour's Carwyn Jones compared to 43% of West & Mid Wales respondents and 40% of SE Wales respondents. Surprisingly the support for Plaid Cymru's Ieuan Wyn Jones at around 16% was virtually the same in North and South Wales, whereas the Conservatives' Nick Bourne was named by 15% of North Wales respondents compared with just 9% and 7% of West & Mid Wales and SE Wales respondents.

In terms of the economy, however, North Wales respondents showed the same levels of support for Gordon Brown and Carwyn Jones (47%) as the rest of Wales. Strangely, however, despite their greater willingness to support Nick Bourne as First Minister, less North Wales residents thought David Cameron & Nick Bourne where stronger on the economy (21%) compared to West & Mid Wales (26%) and SE Wales (23%). Clearly David Cameron's personal standing is not as much of an asset in North Wales as elsewhere.

You can download the poll data yourself here (pdf).

What most worries North Wales voters?

    
Its interesting to drill down a little into the small print of the latest YouGov Wales poll beyond just the voting intention figures.

Respondents were also asked to pick the three most important issues to them when deciding how to vote in the next election. Below you can see the issues selected by North Wales residents in comparison to those selected by All-Wales respondents:

The top three issues both in North Wales and nationally were the state of the economy, immigration and Health. Rather surprisingly considering Anglesey, Conwy and Denbighshire are amongst the three poorest counties in the  whole UK, North Wales respondents were comparatively more relaxed about the state of the economy than Wales as a whole. In fact with just 52% of the respondents selecting the economy in their Top Three, North Wales seems to be the most economically blasé region in Wales. Perhaps we in the North are just more used to a general crap economic state? Unemployment was the fourth most often cited concern - slightly contradictorily above the Wales average - but only to be expected after all the recent closures and job losses on Anglesey at least.

Another surprise was the fact that at 40% North Wales residents were the most worried about immigration in all of Wales. However with only 1% of North Wales respondents planning to vote for BNP - the equal lowest amount in Wales - concern about immigration does not seem to have been transferred to xenophobia.

Other notable differences between North Wales and the rest of the Nation was in relation to Health and Education. With much recent discussion about village schools being closed down in the North perhaps this is only to be expected.

For the rest of the issues North Wales was broadly in line with the rest of Wales.

Demographics of political support

The fine print of the YouGov poll also reveals the relative support for the main political parties amongst different age groups and social demographics.

Some particular points of interest (with thanks to Pete Whitehead at UK Polling Report) are:

• most of Plaid Cymru's support comes from the Young and the Old - Plaid seem to have no appeal at all to people aged between 35-54.
• the Tory share was higher amongst C2DE social groups than amongst ABC1s whilst Labour lead was almost the same in both categories. This may be a significant indicator come the election as Margaret Thatcher also famously commanded more support amongst C2DEs than ABC1s.
• Labour and Tory both scored higher amongst the C2DE group with the Lib Dems and Plaid doing better amongst ABC1s.  

  Lots of food for thought there.
 

Some Electoral Arithmetic for Ynys Môn (updated)

    

      Prompted by the Ynys Môn Conservatives selection of Anthony Ridge-Newman, the Druid has been checking the odds William Hill is offering on the Anglesey election result:

                          Now             Nov '09

Plaid Cymru           1/3                1/3
Labour                  9/4                5/2
Conservative          12/1              10/1
Lib Dem                100/1            100/1

So, the Conservatives’ selection of an English candidate has lengthened their odds from 10/1 to 12/1, whilst the Labour odds have shortened very slightly to 9/4. But as far as William Hill are concerned at 1/3 Plaid Cymru’s Dylan Rees is Red Rum - he’s a racing certainty.

But are we really so sure that the results are this certain?

Wales-only Voting Intention polls are pretty thin on the ground, but YouGov published their first last November, and here are the headline figures for All-Wales (the comparison is with the 2005 General Election results in Wales):

Con 31% (+9.6)
Lab 34% (-8.7)
LD 12% (-6.4)
PC 15% (+2.4)

Now, in predicting the 2010 general election results in Ynys Môn, All-Wales polls aren’t actually all that helpful as Wales isn’t really a very homogenous place. North West, Mid and West Wales leans strongly towards Plaid Cymru, Labour is strong in the North and the South, with Conservative support picking up towards the borders with England. Luckily the November ’09 YouGov poll also include a break down of these results regionally. The North Wales results were:

Con 40%
Lab 29%
LD 10%
PC 16%

Now, if we compare these poll results with the actual 2005 election results in North Wales, we get the following figures (look at the bottom 2 lines of the chart):

click image to enlarge

The Plaid Cymru vote is pretty steady with the Lib Dems are slipping some 5%. However, the big news is a MASSIVE 13.3% swing from Labour to Conservative in North Wales.

What does this mean for Ynys Môn?

Of course the situation isn’t really homogenous in North Wales either but, frankly, its the best guide we can get from the data available. So, if for the sake of argument we assume that Peter Rogers decides not to stand (a very big assumption) and his support from 2005 swings behind the Conservatives, this is what this polling data predicts for Ynys Môn:

So what can we conclude?

• Ynys Môn in 2010 is a three-way-marginal. If Peter Rogers decides not to stand, there only looks to be about 400 votes between Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives. 
• But we know that Peter Rogers not only split the Conservative vote in 2005 - he also took some Plaid Votes. If those voters fall in behind Plaid Cymru then Dylan Rees will just overtake Albert Owen and will be our next MP.
• If however Peter Rogers DOES stand this year then the Conservatives are doomed and it will be a straight fight between Labour and Plaid - and probably much, much closer than William Hill is calling it.

Ynys Môn in 2010 is on a knife edge...
      
UPDATE: Another YouGov Wales-only voting intention poll, commissioned by ITV, has just come out here. The headline All-Wales figures are:

Con 32% (+1)
Lab 35% (+1)
LD 13% (+1)
PC 13% (-2)

YouGov don't seem to have published the regional data yet, but as soon as they do the Druid will re-compute the Ynys Môn 2010 prediction accordingly.

UPDATE 2: YouGov how now published the regional data of their latest Wales-only poll here. The figures for North Wales are:

Con 33% (-7)

Lab 34% (+5)

LD 11% (+1)

PC 17% (+1)

The comparisons are with the previous November YouGov Wales poll we discussed avbove. The North Wales sample is only a very small 236 people so there is more than enough room for error - however if we calculate the change from the 2005 General Election results as before we get:

Using this swing data to recalculate the predicted Ynys Môn result this year (with all the same assumptions as earlier) we get:

The Conservatives now seem to be out of it - with or without Peter Rogers standing - and it looks like a pretty close fight between Labour and Plaid Cymru - Albert Owen still has everything to fight for.

  
UPDATE 3: Thanks to Meurig in comments for pointing out that YouGov does not include the Meirionydd Nant Conwy area in their definition of 'North Wales'. The Druid has recalculated accordingly to give a more accurate prediction. So the revised YouGov North Wales numbers compared with 2005 General Election results in North Wales (excluding Meirionydd Nant Conwy) are as follows:

And the revised Ynys Môn predicted result based on these updated numbers are:

The gap between Labour and Plaid Cymru is now down to less than 100 votes. Dylan Rees may or may not be Red Rum - but its going to be a photofinish!