Showing posts with label Jobs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jobs. Show all posts

Wednesday, 8 December 2010

The good and the bad news...

I am so used to bearing bad news through this blog that it makes a welcome change to be able to be able to report some good news for a change -- particularly with regards to jobs and the Welsh economy. According to the latest quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, Welsh employers are finally looking to start hiring again after almost two years of negative intentions:

Employment Outlook for Wales
Click to enlarge

Not only that -- and this makes a big change -- Welsh employers are more confident about hiring than any other region in the UK bar the South West:

Regional comparison of Employment Outlooks in the UK
Click to enlarge

With the employers in the North West also buoyant about hiring let us hope that this trend also benefits Anglesey and North Wales.

However, predictably, any good news is bound to be leavened with bad news. And yesterday's announcement of the PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) Test results -- which compares 10,000 15-year-old students worldwide in reading, maths and science -- were seriously bad news for Wales. The results for Wales were the lowest in the United Kingdom and clearly shows that a considerable gap has opened up between the attainment of Welsh students and those from other regions in the UK, particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland:

PISA Test Results - all ranks out of 67 countries
It is difficult to reconcile these results with the annual procession of ever better GCSE and A-level passes. For a small country on the periphery of the United Kingdom, education is the most important weapon in our armoury to continue creating better, well paying jobs in the future -- however these PISA results show that there are grave problems with the current Welsh education system. This is a subject to which I intend to return.

Tuesday, 4 May 2010

Voting for jobs and Wylfa B on Anglesey

      
The latest WAG Statistical Bulletin on the strength of the regional economy and labour market in North Wales arrives just in time to give us a final snapshot before the election on Thursday.

The most striking statistic is the fact that over the last year Anglesey has seen the largest rise in unemployment related benefits in North Wales, with 19% more people on the island now classified as claimants (compared to a rise of just 2% in the whole of Wales, and 6% in the whole of the UK).

This also chimes in with the ratio of jobseekers to jobs reported in the Daily Post yesterday. With more than 2000 claimants on Anglesey chasing just 102 available jobs advertised in JobCentres last month, the jobseeker to job ratio is 20:1 - the highest in North Wales. To underline how bad this is: it is twice as high as the next worse job spot in North Wales, Wrexham, where the ratio is 'only' just over 9:1.

This goes to prove the Druid's often repeated point that what Anglesey needs now is jobs, lots and lots of them. It is my opinion that Governments do not and cannot directly create sustainable, long-term jobs, they can only create the regulatory environment in which private businesses can take off and thrive (this also applies to Wylfa B). However, with an election just days away we do need to return an experienced, dynamic, business-savvy MP who can both represent us in Westminster and provide a focus for change here in Anglesey. Albert Owen has failed miserably in this respect and the front-runner, Plaid Cymru's Dylan Rees, has zero business or entrepreneurial experience (despite laughably trying to compare running a police section to running a company). 

The issue of who to vote for becomes more complex when we also include Wylfa B into the mix. Most residents on the Island (including the Druid) agree that Wylfa B is crucial to Anglesey's economic future. However as the building of new nuclear power stations requires government approval, there is a good possibility that Wylfa B could be scrapped in the event of a hung parliament where the anti-nuclear Lib Dems are likely to hold the balance of power. Plaid's Dylan Rees is personally pro-nuclear (probably due to personal political expedience rather than any heartfelt conviction) whilst his Party is resolutely anti-nuclear (as is their Scottish partners, the SNP); accordingly a vote for Rees is a vote for 1 pro-nuclear and 3 to 4 anti-nuclear voices in Westminster. Peter Rogers is pro-Wylfa B and would likely vote with his ex-party, the Conservatives in Parliament. Accordingly, any vote on Anglesey which does not return either a majority Labour or Conservative government, can probably be seen as a vote against Wylfa B. 

(One final note on the WAG's statistical bulletins - I am beginning to suspect that in producing regional bulletins for North, Mid, South West and South East Wales but not also compiling an all-Wales version, the WAG is deliberately trying to make intra-regional comparisons difficult to make. The claimant count rise for Anglesey which I outlined above may be the worse in all Wales, but to discover that would mean having to compare figures in 4 different reports - which unfortunately I don't have the time to do).
  

Thursday, 29 April 2010

Ed Milliband and Labour's empty promises to Anglesey

  
Ed and Albert getting down with the kids in Moelfre (photo: Daily Post)

Seeing how one of Labour's top brass, Ed Milliband, visited Anglesey yesterday to campaign with Albert Owen, it would appear that Labour still thought that they had a fighting chance of winning on the island. Of course that was before Rochdale's Mrs Duffy made the fateful decision to nip down to the local shops to buy a loaf - thus initiating a chain of events which, among other eventualities, must also surely lead to Albert Owen picking up his P45 on May 7th.

Putting that to one side, Ed Milliband apparently came to Anglesey to give his backing to the "Energy Island" concept - which is I suppose a good thing (even though Ed himself also has about zero chance of still being Energy Minister post the election). Anyway I thought this might be a good time to take a look back at the various "announcements" we have recently heard from Labour about green jobs on the Anglesey:

  
17 February 2010: The Daily Post devoted several pages to an announcement by Welsh Secretary Peter Hain that an unnamed company was very interested in converting the Anglesey Aluminium premises into a wind turbine factory which would result in hundreds of jobs. He even went so far as to say that this was the "he beginning of good times" for Anglesey.

RESULT: We never heard anything about it again.


18 February 2010: The very next day the Daily Post again devoted a number of pages to another Peter Hain announcement. This time he "unveiled" 240 green jobs in Anglesey and Gwynedd.

RESULT: It turned out the the 'jobs' weren't jobs - they were kind of work experience opportunities for 18-24 year olds who have been out of work for over a year. Furthermore they weren't actually in Anglesey or Gwynedd - they were with a charity based in Wrexham.


26 March 2010: More headlines in the Daily Post announcing that Anglesey was in the running to receive £100m of investment to turn the Anglesey Aluminium plant into a wind turbine factory which would result in 1,900 jobs. Its important to note that this news had nothing at all to do with the first similar announcement made on 17 February  - this time the company was GE. Apparently Peter Hain was making "urgent calls' to them.

RESULT: We never heard anything about it again.

What can we conclude from all of this? Here's the Druid's opinion:

  • The Daily Post is remarkably gullible;
  • Don't believe anything Peter Hain says;
  • Labour are better at generating headlines than actual jobs.
      

Tuesday, 13 April 2010

Anglesey: Private Sector down 2,100 jobs since 2001

    
Dylan Jones-Evans, Director of Research and Innovation at the University of Wales and Chairman of the Welsh Conservatives' Economic Commission, has left the following very interesting comment on this blog today:

Having just completed an a analysis of public and private sector employment on Anglesey during the recession, you may be interested to note that during the recession, private sector employment on Ynys Mon went down by 5.7 per cent. 
In contrast, public sector employment increased by 2.9 per cent.
Since 2001, there has been a decrease of 2,100 in private sector employment on Anglesey and the proportion of those employed in the private sector has decreased from 74 per cent of those employed on the island to 67 per cent.
Those are the facts. Interpret them how you will. 

Anglesey's long-term future can only be secured by having a prosperous and thriving private sector. However, as Dylan Jones-Evans' figures above show, since 2001 the number of private sector jobs on Ynys Mon have reduced by a staggering 2,100 jobs. Thats the equivalent of the entire population of Beaumaris - a huge amount for an Island of this size! We better all hope that Wylfa B becomes a reality...
     

Friday, 9 April 2010

++ 181 redundancies on Anglesey ++ (updated)

    
It has just been announced by the BBC that the Welsh Country Foods abattoir in Gaerwen will make a further 181 redundancies. This comes on top of 200 job losses that were announced by the same company in January - and surely means that the plant itself will now close delivering a real blow to agriculture on the Island.

We can now add these to the long list of Anglesey redundancies over the past couple of years:

  • Anglesey Country Foods, Gaerwen - 181 jobs (April 2010)
  • Anglesey Aluminium, Holyhead - 450 jobs
  • Eaton Electric, Holyhead - 250 jobs
  • Eastman Chemical Company (Peboc), Llangefni - 100 jobs
  • Vion - Llangefni plant went down to one shift - 140 jobs
  • Menai Electrical, Gaerwen - 50 jobs
  • Anglesey Country Foods, Gaerwen - 200 jobs (January 2010)

The total now stands at 1,370 1,171 direct jobs lost in a very short period of time and doesn't include further job losses due to indirect and induced effects (for example the estimated 240 indirect jobs lost on the Island due to the closure of Anglesey Aluminium).

These further job losses underline how important the coming election will be for Anglesey's future. What the Island needs now is jobs - lots and lots of jobs - and somebody with the experience and vision to help create them. We can't afford to continue with the ineffectual, responsibility-dodging Albert Owen - yet the bookies' favourite, Plaid Cymru's Dylan Rees, is no better. He has worked in the public sector all his life and has zero business nous. Neither of them have the experience, ability or business vision to help reconstruct Anglesey.
 
UPDATE:  Embarrassing climb down time. As a commenter correctly points out below these are not 181 new redundancies but the confirmation of the 200 possible redundancies first announced by the company in January. I'm afraid I got the wrong end of the stick when I posted about it last night. Apologies to all for any confusion. However, this is still bad news and doesn't change the thrust of my argument above.
    

Thursday, 18 February 2010

The real reason for Peter Hain's visit to North Wales


Daily Post: Peter Hain - saviour of North Wales

Another flurry of activity by Peter Hain is dutifully reported in the Daily Post today. This time he has apparently "unveiled" 240 jobs in Anglesey and Gwynedd. "Unveiled" is a rather strange word to use thought the Druid, generally jobs are said to be "made" or "created" - so what's going on here? Well it turns out that they are being "unveiled" rather than "created" because they are not actual "jobs" - they are better described as "work opportunities" for 18-24 year olds who have been out of work for nearly a year and are funded by the government's Future Jobs Fund. And they are not with an "actual" company - i.e. one which meets customer's needs and makes a profit - but with a charity based in Wrexham called Groundworks which "supports communities in need, working with partners to help improve the quality of people's lives, their prospects and potential and the places where they live, work and play". Despite these vague aims I'm sure Groundworks does sterling work, but I think its fair to conclude that Peter Hain's 240 "jobs" are not going to be the long terms solutions we need to replace the thousands of "real" jobs which have been lost in Anglesey and North Wales.

What is interesting though is the timing for all this sudden activity from Peter Hain; yesterday Hain trumpeted that an unnamed company was interested in creating hundreds of jobs in the old Anglesey Aluminium plant and today Hain waves his magic wand and "unveils" a further 240 jobs in North Wales. We haven't seen so much of Hain in a long time - a cynic might almost think he was trying to distract us from something...

Oh, guess what - the latest unemployment figures were released yesterday…

Here's how the press have reported the unemployment figures:

Daily Telegraph: Long-term unemployment highest since 1997

The Times: Number of people on the dole hits 13-year high

Guardian: Unemployment claimant count rises again

Daily Post (not online): Jobless total falls by 2,000

The Daily Post really isn't doing its readership any favours by so cravenly following Peter Hain and the Welsh Office's official line. So for the benefit of Daily Post readers everywhere here are the actual figures for Wales in comparison with the rest of the country:

Click to enlarge

  • Economically Active: Wales: 75.7% - the lowest figure in the UK apart from Northern Ireland
  • Employment: Wales: 68.9% - the third lowest figure in the UK after Northern Ireland and London
  • Unemployment: Wales 8.6% - almost a whole percentage point higher than England as a whole
  • Economically inactive: Wales 24.3% - the highest rate in the UK apart from Northern Ireland

And overall the number of people claiming benefit is at an all time high, the number of economically inactive people is also at an all time high and unemployment is higher than when Labour came to power in 1997.

So now the real reason for Peter Hain's sudden news blitzkrieg is apparent. And its also worth noting that the Cabinet are meeting in North East of England today - coincidentally the only place with higher unemployment than Wales. Strange that.

Sunday, 31 January 2010

Wylfa: to B, or not to B?


    
Albert Owen MP pops up in the Letters Page of the Holyhead and Anglesey Mail this week to sling mud at the newly appointed Tory candidate, Anthony Ridge-Newman, and the Conservative Party's position on Wylfa B.

Albert thunders, "David Cameron’s closest energy advisor Zac Goldsmith clearly states that if the party sticks to its existing policy it would never allow the building of a new nuclear power station. Well that rules out Wylfa B under the Tories."

If Wylfa B is given the go-ahead it could provide up to 9,000 construction jobs and a further 1,000 to 1,200 highly-skilled, permanent and well paid nuclear jobs. Accordingly, on an island struggling with vast job losses, Wylfa B offers a path to some kind economic salvation - and the quarrel over whether the project will proceed or not will undoubtedly be the defining issue of the 2010 General Election on Anglesey. Albert Owen's letter to the Mail effectively signals the start of the general election campaign on Ynys Mon.

As this is such an important issue for Anglesey the Druid thinks Albert's letter represents the perfect opportunity to examine his claims and to compare and contrast where all the major parties stand on the issue of nuclear power and the building of Wylfa B.

Labour

Let's start with Labour itself. In his letter to the Mail, Albert Owen lauds the Labour party's "political leadership and vision on energy projects including Wylfa". 

Yet with most nuclear plants (including the current Wylfa reactor) and half of UK's coal plants due to close over the coming decade, the Department of Energy and Climate Change itself estimates that, of a total of around 75GW in generating capacity, 20GW will disappear by 2015. And as the current peak demand is around 65GW and growing, that means that the UK could be facing energy blackouts by as soon as 2015 - as shown in the excellent graphic below from the Economist:



But surely we can either extend the life of some of the existing reactors or quickly build some new ones to avoid blackouts, right? 

Wrong. Most nuclear plants are over 25 years old and far too ancient to carry on. Wylfa was granted a nine month life extension but after that point it simply will have to close. And, on top of that, even the most optimistic nuclear engineers don't beleive a new nuclear reactor could come online before 2017 - which will already be too late. Plus lets not forget that EU carbon trading regulations will pretty much prevent the building of any new coal-fired coal plants.

Suddenly Albert Owen's lauding of Labour's "vision" and "leadership" on Energy Policy looks very hollow indeed - if not downright deceitful.

As the Druid noted previously when writing about Anglesey Aluminium, the current government has failed to deal with one of the most fundamental requirements of a modern society - a secure and efficient electricity supply:

While it has been pratting around with its obsession with "renewable energy" ... pushing the proliferation of useless windmills across the land, it has taken its eye off the ball and let vitally needed supplies run down. This is nothing short of criminal negligence that will cost our economy – and us – dear.
Well, they may have screwed that all up, but at least the Labour leadership is 100% behind Wylfa B, right?

Wrong again. Jane Davidson, the Labour Assembly Member and Welsh Environment Minster has demanded a public inquiry "on the grounds of concern over the safety and security of the management of future nuclear waste". We are still waiting to hear whether Westminster will accede to her request or not.

Albert Owen is obviously keen to throw as much mud as possible at the Tories in order to divert Anglesey's electors away from his own Party's dismal record on Energy Policy and the mixed messages coming from the Labour top brass about the desirability of Wylfa B.

Conservatives

As noted above, Albert Owen slams Anthony Ridge-Newman's support for Wylfa B by saying "David Cameron’s closest energy advisor Zac Goldsmith clearly states that if the party sticks to its existing policy it would never allow the building of a new nuclear power station".  Its certainly true that Goldsmith said that - but what exactly is the Conservatives' 'existing policy'? Well, the Conservative Party website clarifies the issue like this:

Nuclear power will be part of the energy mix if it is economically viable, but new nuclear power stations should not leave taxpayers with liabilities for their running, decommissioning or waste. Nuclear is not an alternative to developing and expanding renewable forms of energy.
In other words: a Conservative government will only allow new nuclear reactors to be built as long as they do not require any public subsidy during any stage of their life. On Goldsmith's own blog he expands:

There should be zero subsidies (direct or indirect) for nuclear, and nuclear providers must demonstrate an ability to cover future costs of waste disposal and decommissioning. My view – shared by almost all the energy experts I’ve consulted - is that there can be no new nuclear power without government support. There never has been ... Subsidies should be for start up, immature technologies.
So its clear that the Conservatives do not oppose nuclear power per se, they oppose the need for public money to support what should be private enterprise. 


But hold on a moment - as recently as last week Philip Hunt, the Labour minister of state at the Department of Energy and Cimate Change, said that Labour's policy was:
"absolutely clear" that the cost of new nuclear power plants must be met in full by the commercial companies themselves, including the cost of decommissioning and waste management.
Which appears to be exactly identical to the Conservatives' position. So Albert Owen is effectively attacking the Conservative Party for having exactly the same policy as his own Party! What a twpsyn!


Anyway, we can conclude that the construction of Wylfa B will be supported by either a Labour OR Conservative government as long as the E.ON and RWE Npower joint venture (which has bought the land around the exisiting Wylfa reactor to develop Wylfa B) does not require any public subsidy.


Plaid Cymru

Plaid Cymru has a long tradition of opposition to nuclear power, as the following clips from various manifestos reveal:

  • 1997 General Election Manifesto: "Nuclear energy is now a broken dream. The only safe way forward is to reduce the demand for energy and develop the use of renewables." 
  • 1999 Assembly Election Manifesto: "We will operate on the basis of a presumption against further open cast mining and nuclear power stations."
  • 2001 General Election Manifesto: "As our dependence on fossil fuels must be reduced and since nuclear energy is not an acceptable option, we shall press for very substantial growth in renewable energy."
  • 2003 Assembly Election Manifesto: "We will call for the devolution of responsibility for large-scale energy projects to the Assembly. This will enable us to block any new nuclear energy stations."
  • 2005 General Election Manifesto: "Plaid Cymru the Party of Wales does not support new nuclear power stations."
  • 2007 Pre-manifesto, Change for the Better: "Plaid Cymru does not support nuclear power."
And here's the relevant snippet from their most recent Manifesto for the 2009 Euro Elections:



So underlined in big bold black letters they "reaffirm our total opposition to the construction of any new nuclear power stations in Wales". Notice the weasel word "new" however - which allows Ieuan Wyn Jones, Plaid Leader and AM for Anglesey, to simultaneously stand for both "no nuclear power" and for "nuclear power in Anglesey as it is not a new power station". 


Like the White Queen in Lewis Carroll's "Through The Looking Glass", Ieuan Wyn Jones has an uncanny ability to believe in as many as two impossible things before breakfast. No wonder he's into Unicorns too.

Lib Dems

Opposed. Nothing more to add.


Conclusions


Nuclear energy is an emotive subject and, as we have seen above, leads politicians to tie themselves up in knots so as to be on both sides of the argument at the same time (*cough* Ieuan Wyn Jones *cough*). However as the construction of new Nuclear Reactors is not a devolved matter, we can discount Plaid's wriggly, slippery behaviour. Likewise we can ignore the Lib Dems total opposition as they have no chance of forming the next Administration. That leaves us with Labour and the Conservatives.


As the Druid's investigations prove above, Albert Owen's letter to the Mail is misleading in many ways - the most outrageous being his attacking the Conservatives for having exactly the same nuclear policy as his own Labour party! However, that said, it would appear that neither the Labour Party (excepting Jane Davidson AM) nor the Conservative Party would oppose the construction of Wylfa B as long as E.ON and RWE Npower joint venture does not requite public subsidy.

Thursday, 21 January 2010

Hain denounces "apocalyptic tales" of mass job losses

  
Much good cheer in the newspapers today as it was announced that unemployment in Wales fell by 8,000 jobs in the three months up to November. The number of people now out of work in the Principality is 121,000 and those claiming Jobseekers allowance was also down by 1,300 to 79,200. All of this is welcome news at a time like this.

The Kenyan, Peter Hain, sensing his moment, popped up to denounce the "apocalyptic tales of mass job losses" and pointed out that "this Government has been investing to ensure short-term job losses are not allowed to turn into long-term unemployment".

You heard that right: all of those poor folks at Anglesey Aluminium (400 jobs), Eaton Electric (250 jobs), Peboc (100 jobs), Vion (140 jobs), Menai Electrical (50 jobs), Anglesey Country foods (200 jobs) and the estimated 1,800 other lost jobs that were dependent on the employment within these companies - none of these people have actually lost their jobs according to Hain. Mass job losses have not occurred - the roughly 3,000 jobs lost on Anglesey were just "apocalyptic tales", figments of their and our imaginations. Fairy tales pedalled by the opposition parties.

The Druid is glad that the rest of Wales seems to be recovering from the recession. However he can assure Mr Hain that mass job losses have not been fairy tales on Anglesey - they are very much a reality.
        

Tuesday, 12 January 2010

200 more jobs to go on Anglesey

      
Fresh after the closure of Anglesey Aluminium with the loss of 400 plus jobs at the end of last year, news emerges today that Welsh Country Foods, an abbatoir in Gaerwen, is also to shed 200 jobs.

Apparently senior Anglesey Council officials have expressed "disappointment". Well thats alright then.

Pity they didn't do something sooner - a temporary Business Rates cut to get small and medium-sized companies through the recession for example would have been a lot more useful than this kind of hand-wringing afterwards. In the meantime we can add Welsh Country Foods to the list of companies which have recently closed or shed jobs on Anglesey:

  • Anglesey Aluminium, Holyhead - 400 jobs
  • Eaton Electric, Holyhead - 250 jobs
  • Eastman Chemical Company (Peboc), Llangefni - 100 jobs
  • Vion - Llangefni plant went down to one shift - 140 jobs
  • Menai Electrical, Gaerwen - 50 jobs
  • Anglesey Country Foods, Gaerwen - 200 jobs

By my reckoning that makes 1,140 jobs lost over a relatively short period - not counting the additional small scale jobs losses at supporting companies. Before long there won't be any jobs left - and who will pay the 15% Council Tax increase then?

Incidentally, I note the Council still have enough money to spend on inviting Rolf Harris to open an exhibition in the Oriel Ynys Môn gallery next month. Wonder how many jobs that will save?