Treaddur Bay Business Hustings Update

    
The Druid's spies are everywhere. And tonight they were at the Hustings held by the Federation of Small Businesses in the Treaddur Bay Hotel. One of them just called with the latest Ynys Môn election gossip:

• Albert Owen was berated by the assembled small business owners for Labour's planned National Insurance rise (definitely a tax on jobs according to a show of hands by those present) and also for this year's rise in Business Rates. The manager of Tre Ysgawen Hall revealed to gasps throughout the room how his rates had gone up from around £25,000 to £75,000 a year. Albert Owen tried to claim that the majority of Welsh businesses had seen their rates fall but was shouted down by the audience. Consequently he spent the majority of the hustings sat back in his seat, hands folded defensively, staring into space.
• Dylan Rees told the assembled entrepreneurs that it was incorrect to say that he has no business experience (he's obviously been reading the Druid). No, no, he said, as a Police Inspector he had to look after 40 officers, nine patrol cars, and deal with reams of paperwork - so it was just like running a company. The Druid begs to differ - there's a big difference between being a 'manager' and having the business acumen to develop products or services, find a market, take a financial risk, and make sales to meet a payroll. Its the business vision we need on Anglesey - not managerial experience of shuffling paperwork around for police cars.
• The Lib Dems' Matt Wood admitted that the Lib Dems were against nuclear power and Wylfa B. Apparently he had to as the moderator pointed out it was Lib Dem policy before asking him to speak. Strangely enough for a centre-left candidate he also apparently waffled on a lot about  Reaganomics.
• Apparently both Peter Rogers and the Conservative candidate, Anthony Ridge-Newman, talked with passion and were well received by the audience. Rogers was critical about IOACC's lack of a Local Development Plan (LDP) and the consequent "jobs which are locked-up in council filing cabinets". Ridge-Newman told the audience how a hung parliament would result in the scrapping of Wylfa B as this would be the price of the Lib Dems support in the event of a coalition government.

And the most astounding political revelation of the night?

Dylan Rees wears Sarkozy-style platform shoes...

         

What effect will the Lib Dem surge have on Ynys Môn? (updated)

      

Having just listened to BBC Radio Wales's phone-in debate from Holyhead featuring the Anglesey parliamentary candidates, I can tell you exactly who lost the debate: the Lib Dems.

Why? Because despite all the other candidates (Albert Owen, Anthony Ridge-Newman, Peter Rogers, and Dylan Rees) taking part, the Lib Dems' PPC Matt Wood was the only one not present. His agent, Aled Morris Jones, ably filled-in for him - but we are not able to vote for Aled Morris Jones. What could be more important for a credible candidate than debating the other parties and reaching thousands of electors on the Island is a mystery to me. But then it appears that Matt Wood is not a credible candidate. My spies at the Beaumaris Hustings last week reported that Matt was the weakest debater and the only candidate to leave immediately after the hustings and not engage the audience in conversation afterwards. Perhaps he had to leave early in order to drive back to his home in St Asaph? After all, according to Ynys Môn Lib Dems website, Matt's contact email is listed as: valeofclwydlibdems@googlemail.com! And, whilst we are at it, the Lib Dems are also the only party to have an Ynys Môn Association with an address in Cardiff…

And it is precisely local issues like this which will eventually blunt the progress the Lib Dems have made recently in national voting intention polls. People may like that nice Mr Clegg off the telly; but, crucially, they can't vote for him - they have to vote for local candidates, like the elusive Matt Wood, who aren't actually very good.

And then, leaving behind personalities, we have the problem of Lib Dem policies. The Lib Dems are emphatically opposed to nuclear power - not a policy which is likely to appeal to the majority of Anglesey voters who recognise that Wylfa B is crucial to this Island's future (incidentally the only letter from Matt Wood which I have seen published in the local press was actually all about Energy Policy - it was quite a long letter and astonishingly failed to mention once that the Lib Dems are opposed to nuclear power - I wonder why that might be? Doesn't sound like the new transparent politics which Clegg is always going on about, does it?).

Of course there are few constituencies like Anglesey where the majority of residents support the building of a nuclear powerstation - but there are other policies too which are unlikely to appeal to rural voters. For instance, in an attempt to promote the use of public transport the Lib Dems propose to charge drivers between 8p and 12p for every mile they travel on roads. That might seem like a good idea in cities, but it will wreak havoc in places like Anglesey and elsewhere in North Wales where there are no credible alternatives to travelling by car.

These are just two examples - there are many more. At the last general election on Anglesey the Lib Dems polled only around 2,500 votes out of a total of 35,000 cast. Because their candidate here is so weak and because their policies are unlikely to attract large support on Anglesey, I would predict that despite the large poll leap the Lib Dems are enjoying nationally, they will struggle to attract more than 3,000 votes here on Anglesey. The extra 500 votes they may pick up will probably come evenly from all the other parties (perhaps disproportionately affecting Plaid Cymru slightly more as they have missed out from not participating in the Leaders TV Debates) and will therefore not have a major impact on the result.

Conclusion: Although the national Lib Dem poll surge will not affect the result either way here in Ynys Môn, the fact that nationally they may do much better than previously predicted makes the likelihood of a hung parliament much more likely. A hung parliament will have disastrous consequences for Anglesey as the Lib Dems will hold the balance of power and will make the abandonment of nuclear power a condition of their support. Make no mistake this WILL kill Wylfa B.

      
UPDATE: Just to underline my point that the Lib Dem candidate isn't really taking Ynys Môn very seriously see the below quick snap of the postal ballot for Anglesey. As you can see, Matt Wood's address is given as being in the Vale of Clwyd constituency...

        

UPDATE 2: It appears that absentee Lib Dem candidates are a common theme here in North Wales. BlogMenai has just published the postal ballot form for our adjacent constituency of Arfon showing that the Lib Dem candidate there has an address in Acton, West London!
         

Ex-barman from St Asaph tells Anglesey residents we can't have Wylfa B

In the interests of fairness it is only right that the Druid mentions that the Liberal Democrats have recently appointed Matt Wood as their Ynys Môn candidate for the general election.

Matt is from St Asaph and went to the University of Glamorgan to study "media practice" - whatever that might be. Now at the ripe old age of 26, the ex-bar worker has come to Anglesey to tell us that we can't have Wylfa B.

The Druid doesn't get the impression that the Liberal Democrats are taking Ynys Môn very seriously: their Ynys Môn Association has an address in Cardiff and Matt is still listed as the Treasurer of the Vale of Clwyd Association.

No wonder the Liberals haven't held the seat since 1951.