Showing posts with label General Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label General Election. Show all posts

Thursday, 5 August 2010

Ridge-Newman selected to fight Gower

Anthony Ridge-Newman, the Conservative candidate for Ynys Môn in the General Election, has announced via his blog that he has been selected to fight Gower in next year's Assembly elections.

Ridge-Newman surprised a lot of people (especially in the Plaid Cymru camp) with his energetic campaign and remarkable performance in the General Election: effectively doubling the Conservative vote compared to 2005, and achieving the largest pro-Conservative swing in North Wales. Just goes to show that a little drive and determination goes a long way - even on Ynys Môn.

Ynys Môn 2010 General Election Results (click to enlarge)

In Gower, Ridge-Newman will be facing veteran Labour AM and current Minister for Health and Social Services, Edwina Hart. She will be defending a majority of just 1,192 votes and could just have a fight on her hands.

Ridge-Newman's departure will of course mean that the Ynys Môn Conservatives will have to field a new candidate to fight the 2011 Assembly Elections.

Tuesday, 18 May 2010

The new "Môn a Menai" constituency


Following on nicely from Sunday's post about Albert Owen's 'increased' majority, here are some interesting general election statistics (from Iain Dale) of MPs who won with the with least amount of votes:


No fewer than four out of the top ten winning MPs with the lowest votes came from North Wales:

  • Hywel Williams in Arfon (9,383 votes)
  • Guto Bebb in Aberconwy (10,734 votes)
  • Albert Owen in Ynys Môn (11,490 votes)
  • Ian Lucas in Wrexham (12,161 votes)

This is only to be expected I suppose as these constituencies are amongst the smallest in the UK in terms of size of electorate, and, indeed, all are more than around 30,000 voters below the standard sized constituencies of 77,000 voters favoured by the new Con/Lib government:

  • Arfon - 42,998 voters
  • Aberconwy - 43,976 voters
  • Ynys Môn - 49,831 voters
  • Wrexham - 50,980 voters

Accordingly its very likely that the general election just gone will be the last time that the Isle of Anglesey will be a constituency in and of itself - bringing an end to a Westminster ward which has remained unchanged since its creation in 1545. One one hand I can understand that standard sized constituencies are fairer insomuch that every vote will carry equal weight; however I fear that the downside will be that the new 77,000 voter constituencies will in effect simply transfer even more political power to cities at the expense of the countryside. 

As for what the boundaries of our new constituency will be: its likely that that it will include all of Anglesey, Bangor (population: 21,000) and various other parts of the hinterland to get up to 77,000 voters - I doubt it will include Caernarfon. As a commenter under this thread guessed, I'd also agree that the new name could be "Môn a Menai". What effect will this have on which party will win the seat? The Bangor wards in Gwynedd County Council are currently mostly represented by Plaid Cymru and Lib Dem councillors so I can only guess that this merger will strengthen Plaid Cymru's chances of winning "Môn a Menai". What do you all think?
    

Sunday, 16 May 2010

Albert Owen's 'increased' majority

  
According to the Western Mail yesterday, Chris Bryant the Labour MP for Rhondda "whooped for joy" when Albert Owen increased his majority. Although it is strictly true to say that Albert did increase his majority, its probably time for a little context.


The fact is that Albert didn't increase his majority in the traditional manner by increasing his own vote (in fact he lost 788 votes since 2005), rather it came about because there was a fundamental shift of voters between the other parties - in particular from second placed Plaid Cymru to the third placed Conservatives. In 2005 Albert's lead over the Plaid Cymru candidate was 1,242 votes; this time that lead expanded to 2,461 because Plaid's support leaked away to the Conservatives.

So in reality there is not really much cause for "whoops of joy" in the Labour camp.
    

Saturday, 15 May 2010

The REAL reason for Plaid's poor election results (hint: its wasn't because of the Leaders Debates)


After months of confident talk by Plaid Cymru that they were on the verge of taking their biggest ever haul of seats at a general election, there was much shock at the actual lacklustre results - not least in top target seat Ynys Môn. Since the general election however, I have lost count how many times I have read the following kind of explanation for this dismal performance:

"Plaid's absence from the leaders' debates was of course the biggest single factor in their opinion poll rating dipping from a record high 14% before the debates, to 9% after."
"There may have been other things that went wrong for Plaid at the election but it's hard to fault their campaign, and Ieuan Wyn Jones was judged to have performed "well" throughout the debates."

This was posted just yesterday on the Welsh Rambings site and seems pretty much representative of the 'received wisdom' on 'what went wrong'.

Only problem is I don't think its true - at least not in North Wales. Why? Lets take a look at what the North Wales voting intention polls actually showed:

click to enlarge

As you can see the first 'Leaders Debates' was held on the 15th April 2010 - but according to the North Wales polls, Plaid Cymru's support had already dropped from a high of 17% in January to just 10% in March - a full month and a half before the first debate was even broadcast! In fact - contrary to Plaid's 'received wisdom' - the polling evidence clearly shows that in North Wales it was Labour and the Tories which suffered from the debates, not Plaid Cymru. Considering that Plaid's vote actually increased a few points to 13% at the election you could even make the case that they benefitted from not being included.

So what conclusions can we make? Well, despite Welsh Rambings' assertion above, perhaps their campaign wasn't faultless after all. The question I would ask is why did Plaid's support plummet from a high of 17% in January to 10% in March - what happened during that period?

I still think that this announcement on January 18th (just days after the January poll) was Plaid's single biggest mistake:


Plaid's pledge to raise the state pension by a staggering 30% - although an admirable policy aim in itself - was hugely cynical politicking. As I wrote at the time:

Sounds great - all Plaid Cymru needs to do is win 324 seats in the General Election to obtain a majority and then they can implement this election pledge. Oh, wait, Plaid only actually contests 40 seats - so on top of winning every seat in Wales they'll also need to win another 284 seats elsewhere in the country… that could prove tricky so its a good job that responsibility for Pensions has been devolved to the Welsh Assembly where Plaid Cymru is currently in a coalition government with Labour - otherwise they could never implement this election pledge. Oh, wait - that hasn't happened either.
This is politics at its most cynical. Plaid Cymru have made an election pledge to Wales' pensioners which they know they have absolutely no chance whatsoever to implement. In the business world this is called 'fraud' - as an ex-solicitor I'd have thought Ieuan Wyn Jones would know something about that. 
Rather than bribing voters with empty promises, far better that Plaid spent some time thinking about pledges they can actually deliver.

By indulging in this kind of 'fantasy politics' Plaid Cymru presented itself not as a responsible political party, but as party which would say anything to get votes. Furthermore my personal view is that Plaid paid dearly for this stupidity in the polls.

I'm sure that this post will generate a heap of abuse - but I think the sooner Plaid Cymru stop kidding themselves that the sole reason they did so badly was because of their exclusion from the Leaders Debates, the sooner they can find the real reasons for their dismal performance.
  
UPDATE: It is also well worth reading Prof. Dylan Jones-Evans' post on Plaid's performance in the general election.
  

Tuesday, 11 May 2010

Going... going... gone? (Updated)

  

Only Gordon Brown could have engineered the circumstances in which he would have to resign twice on two consecutive days...
  
UPDATE: Brown's final speech outside of 10 Downing Street just provided the quote of Brown's premiership:

"In the event that the Queen accepts [my resignation]..."

Huh? 
  

Friday, 7 May 2010

Has Anglesey just lost this...?

  
     
Now that we have a hung parliament and the Lib Dems do appear to hold the balance of power - can we now kiss Wylfa B goodbye?
      

Examining the North Wales results

  
Only two seats have changed hands in North Wales, with Plaid Cymru's Hywel Williams notionally picking up the new constituency of Arfon from Labour, and the Conservatives' Guto Bebb also winning Aberconwy from Labour.

However, if we look at the underlying figures a very interesting picture emerges as per the following chart collecting the percentage point gains or losses for each North Wales constituency (with Dwyfor Merionydd a bonus addition because the Druid considers it part of North Wales - not mid Wales). Red shading represents a drop in support by more than one percentage point; green shading a gain of more than one point; and grey shading representing a gain or loss of less than one percentage point):
  
click to enlarge

Despite losing only two seats, Labour have lost support in every North Wales constituency - dropping an average of 6.6 percentage points. Conversely the Conservatives have gained almost exactly the same amount of support which Labour has lost, with an average gain of 6.1 percentage points.

The two other parties, the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru have basically flatlined. Rather surprisingly Dwyfor Merionydd's Elfyn Llwyd experienced the largest decline in Plaid Cymru support in North Wales with a drop of 6 points. Plaid's Ynys Mon candidate, Dylan Rees, with a drop of almost 5 points, saw the second highest decline - despite the fact that Plaid Cymru had flung resources into winning the Island. Only goes to prove what a weak candidate he was (as repeatedly pointed out by the Druid). Plaid Cymru have of course been blaming their poor showing on their exclusion from the televised Leaders Debates - however, the Druid begs to differ. As I pointed out earlier this week, the poll evidence points to Plaid losing support well before the first TV debate was shown (see here).
    
Anyway, as we have a hung parliament nationally it is extremely likely that we will have another election within twelve months.
    

Albert Owen holds Ynys Môn

    
The sixty year old tradition of Anglesey voters not ejecting a sitting MP remains unbroken. Albert Owen has held the seat with Plaid Cymru's Dylan Rees coming second, and the Conservatives's Ridge-Newman third. Here are the results:

click to enlarge

I would suggest this is a disaster for Plaid Cymru who have actually lost over 2,000 votes (-16%) since the 2005 general election. Ieuan Wyn Jones may well follow Peter Robinson's lead in next year's Assembly election.

Labour's Albert Owen also lost votes, 700 of them - which, interesting, is exactly the number of jobs lost at the two Holyhead-based companies of Anglesey Aluminium (450 jobs) and Eaton Electric (250 jobs). However, in the end, it looks like Holyhead has come out for him.

The big winners were the Conservatives who have doubled their vote, gaining almost 4000 votes since 2005 - a testament to the campaign fought by Anthony Ridge-Newman.

More analysis tomorrow...
    

Thursday, 6 May 2010

The General Election: Anglesey to break a 60 year tradition

            
It is a remarkable fact that Anglesey voters have not rejected a sitting MP at a General Election for almost 60 years - the last time being when Labour's Cledwyn Hughes beat the sitting Liberal MP, Megan Lloyd George in 1951. Since then, the seat has only changed hands (and party) when the sitting MP has for whatever reason stood down:

  • Cledwyn Hughes, later Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos, retained the seat for 28 years until he decided to step down at the 1979 general election - clearing the way for a young Conservative councillor from Brighton, Keith Best, to win the seat for the Conservatives. 
  • Keith Best held the seat in 1983 against a young Ieuan Wyn Jones. Indeed IWJ had to wait until the 1987 election to win Anglesey for Plaid Cymru - but only after Keith Best had become embroiled in the BT shares row and had been forced to stand down. 
  • Ieuan Wyn went on to win the next two Westminster elections in 1992 and 1997, but stood down prior to the 2001 election in order to devote himself to the Welsh Assembly after having become Ynys Môn's first AM in 1999. 
  • This opened the way for Labour's Albert Owen to regain the seat for Labour in 2001, narrowly beating Plaid Cymru's Eilian Williams.

And, as we know, Albert Owen retained the seat in 2005 and no doubt hopes that Anglesey will continue its 60 year tradition of backing sitting MPs. I fear this time he will be disappointed...

However, even if Albert Owen is not the Island's MP this time tomorrow, I don't think we are about to get the MP we deserve. The bookies' favourite (at 3/1 to win) is Plaid Cymru's Dylan Rees - a wholly uninspiring candidate. To illustrate the point, the Druid has just found his video of Rees speaking at a Plaid Cymru rally in Beaumaris last week:


  
It is striking that the worst thing he can think to say about the catastrophic state of Anglesey after 13 years of Labour government is... that they closed some Post Offices on the Island! Of course we all regret rural post offices closing, but we have far larger, more important problems that that - such as:

  • A GDP per head of only half of the UK average thus making it officially the poorest region in the UK according to the Office of National Statistics; indeed Anglesey has even been compared to some of the poorest parts of Poland in a recent OECD report;
  • The lowest GVA per head in Wales at just 53% of the UK’s average; 
  • A dwindling private sector following the closures of Anglesey Aluminium (450 jobs), Eaton Electric (250 jobs), Peboc (100 jobs), Octel, Menai Electrical (50 jobs) and the downsizing of Vion/Welsh Country Foods (181 jobs) 
  • A fastest rising and highest unemployment rate in North Wales; 
  • An economic inactivity rate of 25.1%; 
  • A changing population profile with a net outflow of 16-24 year olds; 
  • And a completely screwed up County Council!

Why doesn't Dylan Rees mention any of this? I'll tell you why: because to do so would make his boss, Ieuan Wyn Jones - a man who has represented this Island as either MP or AM for the last 24 years - look stupid. An MP who is not able to recognise or speak about this Island's real problems for fear of making his boss look bad is not what we need.

The Druid believes that today Anglesey will break its 60 year tradition of not rejecting sitting MPs. The Druid further hopes that Anglesey will remember its newly found killer instinct next year at the Assembly elections and vote out Ieuan Wyn Jones too. Its clear that being Deputy First Minister, Leader of Plaid Cymru and Assembly Member for Ynys Môn is two jobs too many.
  
UPDATE: If you want to watch the Ynys Môn result live, it is expected to be declared between 1.00-1.30am tonight. (Hat tip: Miserable Old Fart)

UPDATE 00:31am: It appears from IWJ's interview on BBC Wales that the favourite Plaid's Dylan Rees has NOT won Ynys Môn. More to follow...
  

Wednesday, 5 May 2010

Last Wales Poll before the Election (Updated)

    
ITV Wales have just published the topline results of the last Wales voting intention poll before tomorrow's general election:

CON      27% (+4)
LAB      35% (+2)
LDEM   23% (-6)
PLAID  10% (+1)

The comparisons are with the YouGov Wales poll of April 19th at the height of Cleggmania - it seems the Welsh electorate have now pretty much returned to their senses.

UPDATE: YouGov have now also published the regional figures for North Wales, so here they are:

CON      33% (+9)
LAB       33% (-8)
LDEM   19% (+4)
PLAID   10% (-4)

The comparisons this time are with the actual North Wales General Election results of 2005. The big losers since 2005 are Labour (down 8 points) and Plaid (down 4 points). To give you an idea of how the voting intentions in North Wales have changed over the past 5 years, see the Druid's North Wales poll tracker below:

click to enlarge

At the time of the 3 March 2010 poll, there were many Plaid-supporting bloggers who claimed that the depressed Plaid Cymru figures for North Wales were purely down to YouGov's North Wales sample being too small. However, as the above poll tracker shows, Plaid's voting intention in North Wales has now consistently remained at 10% for the last three polls (3 March, 19 April, and 5 May). Furthermore, if these results are accurate, Plaid's claim that their polling figures have been adversely effected by not being included in the Leaders Debates does not hold water - at least not in North Wales. It is clear that Plaid's support slumped to 10% before the Leaders Debates and has remained there ever since. 

Of course, we will find out how accurate these polls are tomorrow...
     

Friday, 30 April 2010

Newspaper Endorsement of the Day

  
Even the Guardian has now abandoned the Labour party by today announcing that they are endorsing the Lib Dems:


Its all over for both Albert Owen and his party I fear.
    
UPDATE: For the best analysis of the Guardian's defection to the Lib Dems, read this. Incidentally, I must say Doctor Huw's daily updates on the election campaign have been daily must reads for the Druid.  
    

NFU/FUW Hustings Update

          
By all accounts last night's NFU/FUW Agricultural hustings was a rough and rowdy affair featuring some fiery exchanges between the candidates. Here's what I have been able to glean from a number of attendees:

  • The venue was changed at the last moment from The Bull Hotel to the adjacent Llangefni Town Hall. Attendees were told that this was because a larger than expected number of people had turned up - however, as the Welsh Christian Party candidate, David Owen was also present could the real reason be because he had declined to attend a debate in a pub? After all he has been in the press objecting to the use of a pub in Llanfachtraeth as a polling station
  • Plaid's Dylan Rees was apparently surprisingly knowledgeable about matters agricultural, even pointing out in his opening address that he was "aware of the importance of farming to rural areas" - Really? Who'd have though it.
  • All candidates rightly paid tribute to Albert Owen's private members bill to set up a Supermarket Ombudsman ("Oftrolley"), however Albert Owen himself candidly admitted that his party was not behind him (indeed the bill failed to go through before Parliament was recently suspended because the Labour government failed to provide time for the necessary debates and procedures). All candidates also said that if elected they would pledge to put similar legislation in place.
  • The biggest bust up of the night came in exchanges between Albert Owen and the Conservative candidate, Anthony Ridge-Newman. Owen once again objected to Ridge-Newman saying that Anglesey is the poorest county in the UK by complaining that the Office of National Statistic's GVA figures only breaks Wales down into eight regions whilst there are 22 counties in Wales. Therefore should those eight regions be subdivided into counties, some places in South Wales would have even lower GVA figures then Anglesey. A clearly angry Ridge-Newman was cut off mid response by a member of the audience loudly demanding "how many counties are there in Wales?". Either the man was able to immediately follow Albert's torturous sophistry or was a frustrated geography teacher - whichever way, Ridge-Newman replied that he didn't know, but nor does he know how many counties there are in England or Scotland either. Cue a very smug expression on Albert Owen's face. For the sake of balance I should point out that the frustrated geography teacher later apparently also attacked Plaid's Dylan Rees and former MP, Keith Best, for only being "dynamic in applying for BT shares" so perhaps he wasn't entirely apolitical. 
  • In exchanges about Wylfa B, Albert Owen revealed that Energy Secretary Ed Milliband had told him the day before that in the event of a hung parliament Labour would never compromise their pro-nuclear energy policy for the sake of clinging onto power in a coalition government. Dylan Rees was taken to task by the audience for Plaid Cymru's mixed messages on nuclear (Rees is personally pro-Wylfa B whilst his party, and his manifesto is strongly against it). This point was taken up by Peter Rogers who also pointed out that Plaid's Elfyn Llwyd was campaigning against low flying RAF jets in Wales, whilst Rees is pro-RAF valley. "At least we have a manifesto" retorted Rees - "whats the point of having one if you don't follow the policies in it?" came back Peter Roger's reply. At which point angry farmers complained to the Chairman that they had come to the meeting to discuss agricultural matters, not energy policy.
  • A dairy farmer said that thanks to the fall of the pound against the euro, he was now doing very well indeed and therefore could any of the candidates tell him why he should vote for anyone other than Labour? The Druid is not sure if the farmer in question actually thought it was official Labour policy to wreck the UK economy and thus devalue sterling or not.
  • Other questions from the floor covered the lack of new farmers coming in to the profession, damaging EU legislation, why French farmers got more benefits than UK farmers, and badger culls.
  • The Welsh Christian Party's David Owen was apparently surprisingly jocular, coming out with some of the only gags of the evening. Whilst patting his quite large stomach he told the audience that he was glad to attend the agricultural hustings because he "likes his food". He also later revealed that there are "badgers on every street corner in South Wales". You heard it here first.
  • The Lib Dem Matt Wood apparently had a poor night of it. With a small voice and arms waving around uncontrollably like those of a string puppet, he was rarely allowed to finish his points before the Chairman briskly moved on to the next question. The UKIP candidate, Elaine Gill, didn't turn up.

UPDATE: Another attendee calls to say that there was some unintended hilarity at the start of the hustings when the Chairman was forced to apologise that the fliers for the meeting incorrectly identifying Peter Rogers as the 'Conservative candidate'... ooh, touchy subject!
         

Thursday, 29 April 2010

Quote of the Day 2 (Farmers v Police edition)

  
The Druid's report of the Treaddur Bay business hustings included the following section on Plaid's Dylan Rees:

"Dylan Rees told the assembled entrepreneurs that it was incorrect to say that he has no business experience. No, no, he said, as a Police Inspector he had to look after 40 officers, nine patrol cars, and deal with reams of paperwork - so it was just like running a company. The Druid begs to differ - there's a big difference between being a 'manager' and having the business acumen to develop products or services, find a market, take a financial risk, and make sales to meet a payroll."

This led to a discussion as to what 'business acumen' Peter Rogers has as a farmer. It was pointed out that a farm is actually a business, at which point a self-professed Plaid Cymru supporter then posted the below comment:

"Come on Druid, its clutching at straws to claim that a farm is a business and then claim that Dylan Rees has no business experience. The logical conclusion of that sort of analysis is that 'managing' 40 cows and 9 tractors is easier than 40 policemen and 9 police cars."

Leading to today's second Quote of the Day from Anonymous 09:35:

"I would say there is a massive difference between farming and policing - in policing there is no risk to your income, you have static or rising income, you invest none of your own money, you lose none of your own money, you make none of your own money, you follow orders and procedures rather than making your own decisions, there is an organisation responsible for your welfare and your retirement is taken care of."

Hear, hear.

Finally, the Agricultural Hustings will be held under the NFU and FUW's auspices in The Bull, Llangefni, this evening at 7pm. If you're interested in farming matters do attend, if not check back here later for the Druid's report.
  

Quote of the Day (Out of power for a generation-edition)

    
U.S. Economist David Hale recounts a private conversation with Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England:

"I saw the governor of the Bank of England last week when I was in London and he told me whoever wins this election will be out of power for a whole generation because of how tough the fiscal austerity will have to be."

Lets all remember that whoever wins this election, the cuts which will inevitably be imposed will be Labour cuts. A profligate Labour Party has over 13 years racked up this vast deficit and public sector debt - the cuts will belong to them and them alone.
      

Ed Milliband and Labour's empty promises to Anglesey

  
Ed and Albert getting down with the kids in Moelfre (photo: Daily Post)

Seeing how one of Labour's top brass, Ed Milliband, visited Anglesey yesterday to campaign with Albert Owen, it would appear that Labour still thought that they had a fighting chance of winning on the island. Of course that was before Rochdale's Mrs Duffy made the fateful decision to nip down to the local shops to buy a loaf - thus initiating a chain of events which, among other eventualities, must also surely lead to Albert Owen picking up his P45 on May 7th.

Putting that to one side, Ed Milliband apparently came to Anglesey to give his backing to the "Energy Island" concept - which is I suppose a good thing (even though Ed himself also has about zero chance of still being Energy Minister post the election). Anyway I thought this might be a good time to take a look back at the various "announcements" we have recently heard from Labour about green jobs on the Anglesey:

  
17 February 2010: The Daily Post devoted several pages to an announcement by Welsh Secretary Peter Hain that an unnamed company was very interested in converting the Anglesey Aluminium premises into a wind turbine factory which would result in hundreds of jobs. He even went so far as to say that this was the "he beginning of good times" for Anglesey.

RESULT: We never heard anything about it again.


18 February 2010: The very next day the Daily Post again devoted a number of pages to another Peter Hain announcement. This time he "unveiled" 240 green jobs in Anglesey and Gwynedd.

RESULT: It turned out the the 'jobs' weren't jobs - they were kind of work experience opportunities for 18-24 year olds who have been out of work for over a year. Furthermore they weren't actually in Anglesey or Gwynedd - they were with a charity based in Wrexham.


26 March 2010: More headlines in the Daily Post announcing that Anglesey was in the running to receive £100m of investment to turn the Anglesey Aluminium plant into a wind turbine factory which would result in 1,900 jobs. Its important to note that this news had nothing at all to do with the first similar announcement made on 17 February  - this time the company was GE. Apparently Peter Hain was making "urgent calls' to them.

RESULT: We never heard anything about it again.

What can we conclude from all of this? Here's the Druid's opinion:

  • The Daily Post is remarkably gullible;
  • Don't believe anything Peter Hain says;
  • Labour are better at generating headlines than actual jobs.
      

Wednesday, 28 April 2010

I don't want to blow my own trumpet but...

        
The Daily Post: following where the Druid leads

Earlier this week the Daily Post picked up on the Druid's blogpost detailing how Albert Owen had misled Anglesey voters on how much investment was coming to RAF Valley; today the Daily Post once again follows where the Druid led.

The Druid first pointed out that a Hung Parliament could kill Wylfa B on March 20th; I repeated this message on March 30th, and then again last Friday. Now the same story merits a double page spread in today's Daily Post.

In today's 'Comment Page' the Daily Post congratulates itself by telling readers, "If you want full, informed election coverage and how it affects North Wales - stick with the Daily Post."  However if you want sharper coverage a full month before the Daily Post even notices - stick with The Druid!
    

Photo of the Day (Bigoted face-palm edition)

    
screen-grab of Gordon Brown on Radio 2 listening to a playback of himself calling a pensioner a "bigoted woman".


Never mind photo of the day - this is the photo of the whole campaign as far as the Druid is concerned.
    
UPDATE: The BBC's Nick Robinson has just said:

“For those of us that have known Gordon Brown for many years, what we have just seen is no huge surprise I have to say.”
       

Tuesday, 27 April 2010

Treaddur Bay Business Hustings Update

    
The Druid's spies are everywhere. And tonight they were at the Hustings held by the Federation of Small Businesses in the Treaddur Bay Hotel. One of them just called with the latest Ynys Môn election gossip:

  • Albert Owen was berated by the assembled small business owners for Labour's planned National Insurance rise (definitely a tax on jobs according to a show of hands by those present) and also for this year's rise in Business Rates. The manager of Tre Ysgawen Hall revealed to gasps throughout the room how his rates had gone up from around £25,000 to £75,000 a year. Albert Owen tried to claim that the majority of Welsh businesses had seen their rates fall but was shouted down by the audience. Consequently he spent the majority of the hustings sat back in his seat, hands folded defensively, staring into space.
  • Dylan Rees told the assembled entrepreneurs that it was incorrect to say that he has no business experience (he's obviously been reading the Druid). No, no, he said, as a Police Inspector he had to look after 40 officers, nine patrol cars, and deal with reams of paperwork - so it was just like running a company. The Druid begs to differ - there's a big difference between being a 'manager' and having the business acumen to develop products or services, find a market, take a financial risk, and make sales to meet a payroll. Its the business vision we need on Anglesey - not managerial experience of shuffling paperwork around for police cars.
  • The Lib Dems' Matt Wood admitted that the Lib Dems were against nuclear power and Wylfa B. Apparently he had to as the moderator pointed out it was Lib Dem policy before asking him to speak. Strangely enough for a centre-left candidate he also apparently waffled on a lot about  Reaganomics.
  • Apparently both Peter Rogers and the Conservative candidate, Anthony Ridge-Newman, talked with passion and were well received by the audience. Rogers was critical about IOACC's lack of a Local Development Plan (LDP) and the consequent "jobs which are locked-up in council filing cabinets". Ridge-Newman told the audience how a hung parliament would result in the scrapping of Wylfa B as this would be the price of the Lib Dems support in the event of a coalition government.

And the most astounding political revelation of the night?

Dylan Rees wears Sarkozy-style platform shoes...
         

Quote of the Day (Keynesian edition)


      
The Independent's John Rentoul writes:

"This is a bizarre feature of this election campaign (one of many): that the central economic argument is over a net £6bn tightening. What the ghost of John Maynard Keynes would have made of £6bn in an economy of £1,700bn is unclear. It is the sort of sum that gets lost down the back of the Office for National Statistics sofa without anyone noticing; and it is twice what Brown "cut out of the economy" in January this year when he put VAT back up from 15 to 17.5 per cent."
        

Monday, 26 April 2010

Albert Owen: I'm comfortable with lying to Anglesey Residents

    
Last week the Druid exposed how our sitting MP, Labour's Albert Owen, has made false claims on his latest election leaflets about the amount of funding which RAF Valley is receiving. It appears that the local press has picked up on my post as today's Daily Post contains this extract:

"The Defence secretary said the Government has made a £635m commitment to RAF Valley by backing it to lead fighter jet training.
But this £635m figure has come under scrutiny with claims it is misleading as the contract to Ascent is for the entire UK Military Flying Training System, which is not solely based at Valley.
But Mr Owen, who used the figure on election leaflets, said: “This is the only figure available and Valley will have the main tranche of that funding. I am comfortable with using this figure.”
In stating that he is using the £635 million figure because it is the "only figure available", Albert Owen is in effect tacitly acknowledging that is is incorrect. Furthermore the Ministry of Defence press release announcing this deal was dated 3rd June 2008 - almost two years ago. Surely over the space of two years Albert Owen could have been able to obtain from the MoD a more accurate figure on how much of the £635 million would actually be spent at RAF Valley? He's a member of the ruling Labour government after all.

In conclusion what Albert Owen is effectively saying is: "I am comfortable with lying to Anglesey residents in order to get re-elected”.