Ysgol Goronwy Owen and Commissioner Gareth Jones

Where are you Commissioner Jones?

Following a serious and unprofessional falling out between the Headteacher and staff at Ysgol Goronwy Owen in Benllech, five teachers have now been on 'sick leave' for six weeks. In consequence only one full time teacher has remained at the school and the majority of lessons for its 150 pupils have been performed by supply staff.

As this unhappy situation seemingly rumbles on and on endlessly, and with parents now threatening to withdraw their children from the school, one would be entirely justified in asking why Anglesey County Council has not acted quicker and more decisively to end the dispute. Afterall the Welsh Assembly withdrew executive power from our elected County Councillors back in March and replaced them with five Commissioners who are able to act with unfettered executive power. Each is paid handsomely at £500 a day for their services to the Island and have a hotline direct to Cardiff Bay. Yet despite this, the shambles in Benllech continues with no resolution in sight before the Summer holidays.

Interestingly the Commissioner who holds the portfolio for Education and is therefore responsible for sorting out the problems at Ysgol Goronwy Owen, former AM Gareth Jones, is also the Commissioner who is apparently least frequently seen at the Council... Is there a connection?

More on those Welsh GCSE results

Over the weekend I discovered that BBC Wales had also acquired the data for the average spend per pupil for each Local Authority — which, following on from my last post, means it is possible to see what effect increased or decreased education spending had on actual GCSE results in each Welsh county (the updated rankings with average spend is here). The results are very interesting:

GCSE results compared to Average spend per pupil
(click to enlarge)

As the above chart shows, outside the clump in the centre, there appears to be very little correlation between increased spending and better GCSE results. The county which achieved the highest average GCSE results (Vale of Glamorgan) actually spent the least (£5,001 per pupil), whereas one of the highest spending counties (Blaenau Gwent) achieved some of the poorest general results. Clearly there is a great deal of difference between the general prosperity of those two particular counties, which led me to plot the results versus the average percentage uptake of free school meals in each county:

GCSE results compared to uptake of Free School Dinners
(click to enlarge)

This chart shows a very clear negative correlation between the 2010 GCSE results and the uptake of Free School Meals. As Free School Meals are offered to children from low income families, it is therefore no surprise that these GCSE results also correlate to the total out of work claimant rate in each county too:

GCSE results compared to total out-of-work benefit claimants
(Click to enlarge)

Of course it has long been accepted that academic performance is a function of relative prosperity therefore these results are not surprising, but it is informative to test the actual Welsh GCSE results in this way. If you are so inclined you can see how the Welsh GCSE results correlate to several other factors here.

So what does this mean?

• A lack of correlation between spend and academic performance seems to suggest that as long as education spending is above a certain threshold, additional spending will not necessarily yield better results.
• The clear negative correlation between prosperity and results indicates that unless something is done to break this link, it could lead to a downward spiral of ever poorer educational attainment linked to ever decreasing prosperity levels (education levels being one of the major functions of economic performance).

So what can be done? As I suggested in my previous post, clearly radical changes are needed to our education system in Wales if we are to break the link between prosperity and school performance. As not all children are academically minded, my personal preference would be to stream pupils earlier into either academic or vocational schools as per the German model. It is pointless to enforce an academic one-size-fits-all approach when clearly not all children have an equal aptitude for academic subjects — in fact this turns the more vocationally-minded children off school altogether, meaning they can't wait to leave school at 16 rather than move on to doing vocational courses.

Education is of critical importance to Wales if we want to turn around our economic prospects. Will this new Assembly show any boldness in its policy making? I for one will not be holding my breath.

Those "crude" school league tables Leighton Andrews doesn't think you should have.

League tables comparing the academic results of secondary schools in Wales were abolished ten years ago in 2001 by Jane Davidson. Recently, in response to a number of FOI requests by BBC Wales, WAG has revealed the GCSE results of all Welsh schools in 2010 — however as Education Minister Leighton Andrews still believes that league tables are "crude" these results were banded into twenty "families" of 10 schools where pupils have similar levels of family income and special needs. Separately WAG has also released 'value added' scores for schools which show whether each pupil's GCSE results are better or worse than was predicted for them at the age of eleven — thus showing to what extent a secondary school has contributed to a pupil's progress either positively or negatively.

So, how did Ynys Môn's secondary schools perform? See below:

It appears that Menai Bridge's Ysgol David Hughes and Llangefni's Ysgol Gyfun deliver the best academic results on the Island, with pupils also passing crucial English/Welsh and Maths GCSEs – the key performance indicator for GCSEs. The results for the Amlwch and Holyhead schools are some way behind. Holyhead however has a very high Value Added score meaning that despite these poor results it is apparently delivering better results for its pupils than they were predicted to receive at age 11. With a value added score of -7 it appears that the opposite is true of Ysgol Syr Thomas Jones in Amlwch.

How do these results compare with the rest of Wales though? See below to see how each Ynys Môn school performed in terms of % pupils achieving a A*-C GCSE including English/Welsh and Maths against the average attainment in each Wales county:

% 5 A*-C GCSEs inc. English/Welsh and Maths
Ynys Môn schools (in black) compared to average results in each Welsh County
Click to enlarge

When put into context like this, it is clear that pupils in Menai Bridge and Llangefni are on average achieving some of the best results in Wales. However the performance of some of the other schools on Ynys Môn clearly demonstrate cause for considerable concern — even taking into account the fact that schools in poorer catchment areas tend to under-attain academically.

If interested, you can see the complete "crude" league table of the GCSE results of each of Wales's 222 schools used to generate the above chart here.

Of course these results are only a snapshot in time of just a single measure — performance in one set of exams. As these figures are not produced annually it is impossible to see if schools are on average improving or declining — as I noted at the beginning these figures were only obtained this time due to FOI requests from BBC Wales. However, thanks to the OECD's PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) programme which compares 10,000 15-year-old students worldwide in reading, maths and science, we are able to see how Welsh pupils compare internationally over time. Conducted every five years the 2009 results for Wales were the lowest in the United Kingdom and clearly shows that a considerable gap has opened up between the attainment of Welsh students and those from other regions in the UK, particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland:

2009 Rankings in the PISA tests

As Education is one of the key functions of economic performance, the above poor PISA results show that we are just storing up further economic problems in the future for ourselves here in Wales. In order to compete as a small country on the periphery of Western Europe, educational levels are one of the most important tools in our armoury to attract new businesses here. Why would any company want to set up in a region which not only is further away from the major markets, has higher business rates than the rest of the UK, but also has lower average levels of educational attainment? Education is absolutely crucial to both Ynys Môn and Wales if we are to create and sustain better, well paying jobs in the future

My personal view is that our current education system needs to be radically overhauled in Wales — merely tinkering around the edges will not produce the vast improvements necessary to ensure future economic success. Our school system, throughout the UK, is one-size-fits-all and overly focussed on academic subjects and funnelling more and more students into a university education. The problem is that not all children are necessarily academically minded. In my view Wales would be far better served by introducing an education system more similar to that in Germany where pupils are streamed around ages 10-11 based on their aptitude into either academic-based schools (called Gymnasiums in Germany) which will prepare them for university, or into more vocational-based schools (Hauptschules and Realschules) which lead to full apprenticeships or further vocation training.

The German Education System

It is not by accident that Germany has the largest manufacturing base in Europe and is home to some of the largest and most successful engineering and manufacturing companies in the world. There is clearly a lot that we can learn from the German eduction system (amongst others) if we want to transform our future economy — but unfortunately that requires our Welsh Government to be bold...  But what is the point of devolution if we are merely going to continue doing the same as the rest of the UK?

The good and the bad news...

I am so used to bearing bad news through this blog that it makes a welcome change to be able to be able to report some good news for a change -- particularly with regards to jobs and the Welsh economy. According to the latest quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, Welsh employers are finally looking to start hiring again after almost two years of negative intentions:

Employment Outlook for Wales
Click to enlarge

Not only that -- and this makes a big change -- Welsh employers are more confident about hiring than any other region in the UK bar the South West:

Regional comparison of Employment Outlooks in the UK
Click to enlarge

With the employers in the North West also buoyant about hiring let us hope that this trend also benefits Anglesey and North Wales.

However, predictably, any good news is bound to be leavened with bad news. And yesterday's announcement of the PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) Test results -- which compares 10,000 15-year-old students worldwide in reading, maths and science -- were seriously bad news for Wales. The results for Wales were the lowest in the United Kingdom and clearly shows that a considerable gap has opened up between the attainment of Welsh students and those from other regions in the UK, particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland:

PISA Test Results - all ranks out of 67 countries

It is difficult to reconcile these results with the annual procession of ever better GCSE and A-level passes. For a small country on the periphery of the United Kingdom, education is the most important weapon in our armoury to continue creating better, well paying jobs in the future -- however these PISA results show that there are grave problems with the current Welsh education system. This is a subject to which I intend to return.

Quote of the Day (dumbed-down-edition)

Katharine Birbalsingh, a deputy head at a South London school, speaking yesterday at the Conservatives conference, revealed that even children know exams are being dumbed down:

"When I give them past exam papers to do from 1998, they groan and beg for a 2005 or 6 paper, because they know it'll be easier. The idea of benchmarking children and letting them know how they compare to their peers is considered so poisonous by us teachers that we don't ever do it."

Whatever your views on education, its well worth watching her full speech here (forward to 1h17).