Beaumaris Castle: more popular than the Beatles

Beaumaris Castle: still pulling them in 700 years later

Amidst a pervading atmosphere lately of doom and gloom, I was especially heartened to learn that Welsh Castles are the single biggest attraction for foreign visitors to the United Kingdom -- more popular even that touring Buckingham Palace, attending a premier league match, or visiting Harrods.

The survey, carried out by Visit Britain in 20 countries across the world asked 10,000 respondents to choose which activity they would most like to do if they came to Britain. Here are the results:

• Tour Welsh castles: 34%
• Tour Buckingham Palace: 32%
• A night in a Scottish castle: 29%
• Stonehenge sunrise: 29%
• Premier League match: 19%
• Harrods shopping: 19%
• Scottish whisky tour: 15%
• Shakespeare at The Globe: 11%
• Wimbledon: 11%
• Beatles tour of Liverpool: 11%

With castles dotted all over North West Wales, in Caernarfon, Conwy, Dolbadarn, Dolwyddelan, Harlech, Criccieth, and of course in Beaumaris, it shows what an extraordinary resource they are for attracting visitors and promoting tourism. Indeed, the tourism industry is now worth annually £215 million to Ynys Môn (several times more than is currently derived from Agriculture on the Island), and it is clear that Beaumaris castle is the tourism jewel in Ynys Môn's crown.

However its not difficult to argue that Anglesey is punching well below it weight when it comes to retaining tourists on the Island. This is amply demonstrated by our experiences with the Cruise Ships mooring at Holyhead: a great many of the passengers get on coaches which take them directly off the island to Caernarfon or Betws Y Coed. Accordingly we need to do more to provide a diversity of attractions (all with all important coach parks) to complement Beaumaris Castle and compete with what is available over the bridges. I will be writing more about this shortly...

Ynys Môn in 2011

Croeso i 2011

Blwyddyn Newydd Dda i chi gyd! Happy New Year to you all!

Making predictions is a perilous business -- however in order to understand what problems potentially lie ahead and to plan effectively to counter them we need to have a view of what to look out for over the year ahead. Accordingly I'm happy to stick my neck out and share with you what I think 2011 has in store for Ynys Môn:

Anglesey County Council

Wales's highest paid civil servant, David Bowles - the Assembly Government appointed Interim MD to IoACC - will certainly leave the council this year. His two year contract will end in September -- though he may very well leave even earlier in order to save costs. There will be no direct replacement; instead in all likelihood Gwynedd's Chief Executive Harry Thomas will take over the running of both Anglesey and Gwynedd with an Anglesey-based Deputy appointed from within IoACC. There will no doubt be a pruning of heads of departments as several functions are shared between Gwynedd and Anglesey.

Politically 2011 will be an unpredictable year for the Council. The departure of David Bowles will no doubt have a large impact on Councillors and it will be interesting to see if the contentious Terms of Engagement will survive him -- or whether Harry Thomas will be as keen to enforce them. It is also likely that 2011 will see the two Councillors reported to the Ombudsman have their day before Adjudication Panel for Wales -- leading to untold consequences inside the council chamber whatever the judgement.

The ruling Alliance, made up of Plaid Cymru, Labour, and two groups of Independents, is already suffering from a number of stress-fractures and it is difficult to see it surviving the year -- particularly considering that in addition to the changes outlined above it will also be forced to push through unpopular cuts. The local council elections in 2012 will begin to weigh ever heavier on Councillors minds as the year unfolds.

The Island Economy

2011 will be a very difficult year for the UK as the government begins to implement policies designed to reduce the national deficit, forcing us to come to terms with the systematic overspending of the past decade. Despite its status as the poorest place in the UK, Ynys Môn will not be immune to this process and will be affected by the VAT and fuel duty rises, changes to welfare payments, and reduced council services amongst others.

Fortunately there should be some light on the 'horizon' for the Island. Following the coalition government's quick action to both approve Wylfa as a 'preferred' nuclear location and introduce measures to ensure the profitability of low-carbon energy sources such as nuclear, 2011 should be the year when Horizon officially indicates it will proceed to build Wylfa B. This will provide a huge boost to Ynys Môn's ailing economy by providing in the short-term huge numbers of construction jobs -- hopefully coming in time to take the strain caused by job losses elsewhere. The construction phase will take several years and bring with it a large influx of workers which will boost Anglesey's retail and housing sectors in addition to other small businesses.

The other major employers on the Island -- the port of Holyhead and RAF Valley -- will hopefully not see any major changes in 2011. The Search and Rescue function will certainly be retained at Valley, whilst announcements regarding the future of the T Mk 1 Hawks are not expected until 2012. With regards to Holyhead, with traffic through the port anyway down since the collapse of building boom in Ireland, people who I have spoken to at the port don't believe that passenger numbers will be further affected by the current economic turmoil in Ireland -- which is cautiously good news.

However, in the long term, the most important sector for the Island economy in 2011 will be its small and medium sized indigenous businesses. In addition to the benefits they will accrue from the construction of Wylfa B, they will also be helped by the reduction in April 2011 of corporation tax for small businesses from 21% to 20% and the ongoing National Insurance holiday for new qualifying businesses outside of the South East. Unfortunately they will receive little help from the Welsh Assembly Government itself. Small businesses in Wales already pay higher business rates than anywhere else in the UK (in this context it should be noted that the Welsh Conservatives pledge to remove all small businesses with a rateable value below £10,000 out of business rates altogether -- benefitting approx. 19,000 North Wales small firms) and Ieuan Wyn Jones's misdirected Economic Renewal Programme has removed any support from Anglesey's small businesses through halving the total budget and then limiting all economic support to certain sectors only. Furthermore Ieuan Wyn Jones recent calls to delay income tax bills for small firms would do nothing but modify cash flow -- instead of an overall reduction in outflow, like a business rate reduction would do. We need to find ways of reducing bills for small businesses not simply moving the problem until later.

Môn Mam Cymru

Proportionately more people are employed in fields related to farming and agriculture on Anglesey than anywhere else in North Wales. Accordingly we need a healthy and profitable farming industry -- however Anglesey's farms will begin to come under great pressure towards the end of 2011. Single Farm Payments, worth around £10 million per annum to Ynys Môn, are denominated in Euros (at an exchange rate set on 30th September each year) and are therefore vulnerable to the current Euro crisis being played out on the continent. Should other Eurozone countries join Greece and Ireland then it is possible that the sterling value of Single Farm Payments scheduled for December 2011 will be much reduced. On top of this WAG's new agri-environment scheme 'Glastir'  -- which will eventually replace the existing four schemes (Tir Mynydd, Tir Cynnal, Tir Gofal, and the Organic Farming Scheme) -- has been lambasted by farmers for offering too little financial incentive compared to the amount of work required to qualify. So few farmers have applied that WAG has been forced to U-turn on its proposals to begin phasing out Tir Mynydd payments (received by 420 Anglesey farms) this year. However without major changes to Glastir in 2011 farmers will see their incomes further reduced in coming years.

Tourism

Tourism brings in approx. £215m per annum for Ynys Môn and has become increasingly more and more important to the Island economy. The Royal Wedding and presence on Anglesey of William and Kate in 2011 will provide us with an unrivalled window of opportunity to boost tourism for a generation -- but only if we make the right decisions early in 2011. The council needs to recognise this opportunity and implement a short-term tourism strategy designed to 'sell' the island globally over the next 12 months. Furthermore council plans to offload the various tourist attractions it currently runs should be suspended until 2012 at least unless suitable and stable partners can be found with the means and desire to run them well. My recommendations in full are here.

Island House Prices

According to the latest Halifax Country House Price survey the average house price in Anglesey in 2010 fell from £164,300 to £145,147 -- the equivalent of a 11.7% drop. As far as I am concerned this is good news for the Island as it brings the house price to earnings ratio marginally down from 6.7x to 5.6x.

The media is suggesting that the presence of William and Kate will make property on the island attractive to certain second home hunters thus pushing up prices in 2011. The probable beginning of an influx of workers for Wylfa B will also lead to house price inflation -- making it absolutely imperative that the joint LDP between Anglesey and Gwynedd frees up enough land for the building of new houses to keep prices stable. The whole issue of Affordable Homes on Ynys Môn is something I intend to return to shortly.

Elections and Referendums

There will the two referendums held in 2011: the vote on extra powers for the Welsh Assembly will be won, the nationwide poll on changing the first-past-the-post election system to AV will be lost. The Welsh Assembly election in May on Ynys Môn will be very, very close. I will do everything I can to provide a local, Welsh, energetic alternative to a tired Ieuan Wyn Jones. Whatever the result, I promise to make sure that the issues of jobs and the Island economy will be at the very top of the agenda -- ensuring that whoever succeeds at the polls, Ynys Môn will be the winner.

I would be very interested in hearing your predictions for 2011...

One Wales? or Three Wales?

How we are linked by human connections
as mapped by analysing phone-calls
Source: The Economist

Wales is not one country, but three different ones when looked at through the prism of human relationships, according to a fascinating article in this weeks Economist magazine.

Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have analysed 12 billion of phone calls within the UK in 2005 to find which regional clusters communicate with each other most and to see how they corresponds to the official administrative borders. The study's hypothesis in a nutshell is that the more and longer people in two locations talk on the phone, the more likely there are human connections binding those those places together into a cluster.

The results show that Scotland is the most cohesive region in the UK, with more than 75% of all calls originating in Scotland calling other parts of Scotland.

It is the results for Wales which are most fascinating to me -- showing that there are three distinct regions within Wales with only limited human interaction between North, South and large portions of mid Wales. North Wales in particular is much more linked in terms of human interaction with Liverpool, Manchester and the North West of England, with between 65-75% of all phonecalls originating in this area being to other places in North Wales and the North West.

What does this tell us?

GVA per head variation between regions. Following
Wales the North West is the next poorest.
Click to enlarge

• It shows that North Wales's economy is inextricably linked to that of Liverpool, Manchester and North West England. This fact is reinforced when you look at the relative GVA per head figures between regions. After Wales (with Anglesey at the bottom) the next poorest region is the North West (with nearby Wirral at the bottom). For North Wales to grow, it is essential for the North West to also grow, therefore there should be much more communication and collaboration between WAG and the North West in terms of economic development.
• In terms of tourism, it shows that the natural market to attract visitors is from the cities of Liverpool, Manchester and the North West. As there are already plentiful human relationships between us, strategically promoting Anglesey as a destination to these regions should be like pushing against an open door.

Helping Holyhead and Ynys Môn to create jobs

According to figures compiled by the GMB Union, Holyhead has the most jobseekers per vacancy in Wales. This month there are 781 unemployed claimants in Holyhead chasing just 105 unfilled job vacancies -- a ratio of 7.4 potential applicants per job. Bangor, Caernarfon and Llangefni are in 17th place, with 2,138 unemployed claimants chasing 1,077 job vacancies -- a ratio of 2 applicants per job.

Holyhead in particular was severely hit by the recession -- two of its largest employers, both of which had been operating in Holyhead for well over 35 years -- closed within three months of each other at the end of 2009:

• Anglesey Aluminium started smelting in 1971 and continued production all the way through the 80s and 90s, only closing with a loss of 450 jobs in September 2009
• The Eaton Electric plant in Holyhead opened in 1960 under the name Midland Electric Manufacturing Company, it operated all through the 80s and 90s and closed in December 2009 with a loss of 250 jobs

Between them they directly accounted for 700 jobs, not including all the other jobs in small suppliers, support industries, and shops which depended on their trade.

Large companies like Anglesey Aluminium and Eaton Electric cannot be replaced overnight, and it is for that reason that the economic wellbeing of Holyhead and Anglesey must rest with its indigenous small businesses -- a point explicitly addressed in the People's Manifesto:

"the Council needs to recognise that the Island’s economic future rests on promoting and supporting multitudes of small businesses - not just one or two large employers. Accordingly the Council must: (a) avoid supporting developments which merely contribute to the cannibalisation of sales from existing small businesses and shops; (b) prioritise reducing the bureaucracy and costs involved in running small businesses on the Island; (c) provide meaningful and high-quality support to encourage both the growth of existing small businesses and the establishment of new ventures."

Not only does this make good common-sense, it is also backed up by research: for example studies show that nearly two-thirds of all net new jobs in the United States in 2007 were created by companies less than five years old. Therefore it is clear that a country such as Wales which suffers from an under-developed private sector should strategically focus on providing support to its small businesses as a way of growing the number of private sector jobs.

Unfortunately the economic development policies currently being pursued by the Welsh Assembly Government -- Ieuan Wyn Jones's "Economic Renewal Programme" -- do the exact opposite: i.e. they support a few large employers in Wales at the expense of the multitudes of small businesses. It has done this by limiting the amount of economic support available and then restricted it only to companies operating in six "key sectors":

• Creative industries
• Information Communication Technologies
• Energy and Environment
• Advanced material and manufacturing
• Life Sciences
• Financial and Professional services

How were these sectors chosen? Nobody knows. The majority of companies operating in these sectors are not small companies. And most importantly to us, none of them (with the possible exception of energy companies) are well represented on Ynys Môn as is clear from the following breakdown of workplace employment sectors in Anglesey and North Wales:

In case you can't read the key: the sectors (left to right) are: Public Administration, education,
health and other services; Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing; Production; Construction;
Distribution, transport and communication; Finance and business services. (Source: WAG)

As you can see: Anglesey has a large distribution and transport sector thanks to Holyhead port, fair sized construction and production industries (although this data was collated before the closure of AAM and Eaton, etc.), and the largest proportion of people in North Wales working in areas related to agriculture and food production. None of these sectors are supported by the Economic Renewal Programme and therefore do not qualify for any support. Financial services are supported but, as you can see, Anglesey has the lowest proportion of these companies in the whole of North Wales.

As Anglesey has the highest proportion of people working in Agriculture sector in North Wales it is also important to note that there are severe problems here also. Single Farm payments are denominated in Euros, whose value is falling against sterling because of economic turmoil in Europe. Furthermore the current existing WAG agri-environmental schemes (Tir Gofal, Tir Mynydd, Tir Cynnal, and the Organic farming Scheme) are in the process of being phased out and replaced by the over complicated and widely derided Glastir scheme.  Indeed at a meeting I recently attended of the Anglesey Grassland Society, out of approximately 40 farmers present, only one said he was applying for Glastir. There is trouble ahead.

So what can be done to help the situation in Holyhead and the rest of Ynys Môn?

• WAG needs to change its focus to supporting our small indigenous Welsh businesses. It can do this by reviewing the focus of the Economic Renewal Programme and also by reviewing Business Rates -- which are currently higher in Wales than anywhere else in the UK. (the Welsh Conservatives plan to take all small companies with a rateable value of less than £12,000 out of paying business rates all together).
• More needs to be done to ensure that European funds like JEREMIE (of which Anglesey firms have so far only received 0.1% of the funds available in Wales) are better advertised and taken up by Anglesey companies.
• Closer to home, Anglesey County Council needs to recognise the dangerous effect which expanding the number of pay and display car parks will have on struggling town centre businesses. Gwynedd Council has made all car parks free during the Xmas period to help their small businesses -- why can't we do the same here? I will be pushing the Council to reconsider parking charges entirely.
• Noting the importance of Agricultural and food-based businesses in particular to Anglesey, WAG needs to consider the effectiveness of Glastir. Closer to home we need to look at how we can promote Anglesey produce better.
• Tourism will become more and more important to the Island. I have already discussed here what can be done to help the industry on Anglesey.
• And finally, Planning policies on the island needs to become more business friendly. Present policies are based on the adopted Ynys Môn Local Plan (1996) and the stopped Unitary Development Plan (2005) -- both of these documents are seriously outdated in all areas. Accordingly we need to ensure there is sufficient consultation into the new Local Development Plan (currently being jointly produced with Gwynedd Council) to make sure that planning represents Anglesey's modern needs.

If you have any more ideas or suggestions, please do let me know.

Making sure Ynys Môn benefits from the Royal tourism boost

Bring them home: the Llyn Cerrig Bach treasures represent
some of the finest Celtic Iron Age implements ever
found in Europe.  (Image: National Museum of Wales) 

As I'm sure all readers are aware, a certain Fl Lt Wales, a pilot based at RAF Valley, announced plans to marry long term girlfriend Kate Middleton on April 29, 2011. Following that they intend to continue living on the island until he completes his stint at Valley. Obviously this is fantastic news for Ynys Môn as it will likely result in a significant boost in the number tourists and visitors coming to the Island from all over the World. Accounting for approximately £215 million per annum, tourism is becoming an increasingly important part of the Anglesey economy and we have to make sure that we are able to use the Island's royal connections to our best advantage.

Anglesey has been blessed with fantastic scenery and views, over 120 miles of coastline, and some remarkable heritage sites -- however despite this it has long been apparent that the Island has punched below its weight in terms of attracting visitors. We now have a short window of opportunity whilst Prince William is on the island to try to address these issues, and below is a list of things I will personally be pushing for:

• Anglesey County Council currently runs a number of visitor attractions on the Island, including the Holyhead Breakwater Country Park, Melin Llynnon, Beaumaris Gaol and Courthouse, Moelfre Seawatch Centre, and the South Stack Lighthouse. However, earlier this year the council announced plans to review whether it would continue to manage them citing, "the cost of running these sites is more than the income they generate". In my opinion, this is a very short sighted policy considering the expected Royal visitor boost over the next few years. The council is in danger of shooting the island's long-term economic development goals in the foot for the sake of short-term savings, and accordingly I believe the council should urgently review this policy.
• One of the few things which most people know about Anglesey is that it was once the home of the mystical celtic priestly class, the Druids (real ones, not blogging impostors like me). When you consider this is the era of Harry Potter and magic, it has always seemed odd to me that there is not a single tourist attraction on Anglesey to celebrate and inform regarding this unique part of our history. To this end I intend to campaign for the permanent return of the Llyn Cerrig Bach treasures from the National Museum of Wales in Cardiff and have them put on permanent display here in Anglesey.
• Many visitors have told me that one of their frustrations about visiting Anglesey is that there is nowhere they can sit, for example, by the Menai Straits and have a good lunch or dinner whilst enjoying the incredible views. The scenery on Anglesey looking across to Snowdonia is one of our strongest selling points and we have to do more to allow restaurants and cafes to be built in places where tourists (and locals) would like to eat.
• As an Island, Anglesey should be the natural home of water sports in North Wales. Rhosneigr has already enjoyed some considerable success as a surfing destination, but more needs to be done throughout the Island to promote other water sports such as yachting, canoeing, fishing and so on.
• One of the 'big ideas' in the People's Manifesto was the creation of a unique, large-scale attraction (possibly at the council owned Rhosgoch site) which could be developed as a cross between a Centre Parc, the Eden Project, and the Coed Y Brenin mountain biking centre. The reasoning being that such an attraction would play to Anglesey's strengths (i.e. its suitability as a water sports venue, coupled with its proximity to walking opportunities in Snowdonia) and have the potential to attract visitors from Liverpool, Manchester, and the Midlands without cannibalising existing businesses in the way, for example, a retail park would. In our straightened times funding for such a venture will be limited, but I think the idea itself has great merit and should be investigated further.
• Tranquility-seeking tourism is becoming a big market -- especially when linked with being able to see the night sky. Due to the huge amount of street lighting in most cities, it is becoming increasingly difficult for people to enjoy starry nights. Anglesey should seek to control 'light pollution' so that our starry night sky also becomes another reason to visit Anglesey.
• Finally, Anglesey needs to develop a short-term tourism strategy which recognises the opportunity of Prince William's presence and strategically promotes the island's unique features to those living within 2-3 hours drive.

If you have any more ideas, I would love to hear them.