Guest Blog: The Decline and Fall of Plaid Cymru in Four Acts

During better times in Act 1 and before the
Llanwnda scene in Act 3.

Now that the dust has settled on this weeks local elections, one of the most revealing and largely unreported vignettes from polling day was the re-election of Aeron Jones, a Llais Gwynedd councillor, to Llanwnda despite an energetic campaign led by Plaid Cymru 'royalty' Dafydd Iwan and Dafydd Wigley to unseat him. Llanwnda was just one example of the declining support Plaid is currently experiencing in its Gwynedd heartlands. On a larger scale, at a time when the personal ratings of the leaders of the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems are all in negative figures and at an all time low, why wasn't a party like Plaid Cymru able to capitalise on the general dismay with politics-as-usual?

Here in a Guest Post, a seasoned and anonymous veteran of local politics in Gwynedd and beyond charts the decline and fall of Plaid Cymru in Four Acts.

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YMLAEN! YN OL. I LAWR.

Last Thursday 10 million people voted in an election of 15,000 candidates contesting nearly 5,000 wards across England, Wales and Scotland. The eyes of most commentators, as ever, were drawn to London and a reaction from No 10 – or here in Wales, to events in Cardiff. It is understandable that with 70% of the population in Wales living within 60 minutes of the capital this will happen. But the latest unreported episode of a story with real significance for Wales unfolded in Gwynedd: the drama in four parts which depicts the rise and fall of Plaid Cymru is now moving into its final Act.

ACT I: SMALL BEGINNINGS

Act I saw the formation of Plaid broadly in response to poor governance and threats to our Welsh nation-hood and culture – especially our language. Even today the constitution reflects this, promising to secure social justice, equality, a bi-lingual society and nation-hood. Some 90 years later, in part through their actions and voice, the Welsh Language enjoys protection and promotion from an Act of Parliament and Wales has its own Assembly with some significant devolved powers. Many regard this progress as a success (many do not – both as too little and too much, but that is not the point of this piece). 

However, these achievements have presented Plaid with two big questions over its identity. The first is simple: what do they stand for now? Polling on support for Welsh autonomy barely moves into double figures who favour separation from the UK. This removes nationhood as a serious campaign platform for any Party with national ambition. We might compare it perhaps to the status of UKIP campaigning on withdrawal from the EU – irrespective of the rights and wrongs of the issue, the largest amount of voters just don’t care enough. 

The second question is raised by the fact that both of these achievements came through mainstream UK parties. It was a Conservative government, moved by Conservative MP for Bangor and Conwy, Wyn Roberts, who introduced the Welsh Language Act. Labour introduced the Assembly. Once again, this defines Plaid in the role of cheerleader and agitator. It is a sobering truth that having secured an Assembly for Wales (albeit by the narrowest of margins in a national referendum), the closest Plaid have come to power is brief tolerance by a grateful Labour administration that they propped up for four years. 

Which brings us to Act II of this period that Plaid shared power in the Assembly.

ACT II: POWER AND GOVERNMENT

This is a short Act and not a very happy one. Not just for the period of time it represents – just one term out of four so far – but for another reason. A big, awkward, question that won’t go away and can never be hidden from anyone who wants to know the answer.

Can anyone think what was achieved during that time? 

What did having Ieuan Wyn as Anglesey’s representative (for a quarter of a century), the Deputy Leader of the Assembly, and Plaid’s own Party Leader achieve for Mon man? What vision was shown, what benefits gained, what resources were wrestled from the outstretched hands of a populous, needy, South? What evidence is there of strong local leadership and careful investment for the future wellbeing of Anglesey and its residents? An airline. A failing local authority. And the lowest GVA of any county in the UK. 

To be fair, this is to ask a lot of both IWJ and Plaid. But for the LibDems inability to organise themselves, it might have been a rainbow coalition against Labour. After eight years, people were already well aware of their failures. The Daily Post and Western Mail both ran big spreads on the 10 year anniversary of the Assembly, reviewing progress, celebrating achievements and asking people what the Assembly had done for them and for Wales. How had the billions of pounds spent made a difference to them? The answers? Bus passes and free prescriptions. I can only imagine the discussion in the Editors’ offices. The stark and simple truth is that under a Labour led Assembly, Wales has plummeted down international rankings for economic competitiveness. Worse still, under the management of our own Assembly, outcomes in health, education and more are now worse than our nearest neighbour, England. In the Welsh valleys we have managed to cultivate some of the most impoverished places in the UK. 

ACT III: A NEW DAWN

At this point of the play we are ready for the entry of a charismatic figure to herald a new dawn and lead the oppressed out of gloom into sunlit uplands. 

To say that Leanne’s election as leader was a “surprise” is not strictly true. Her cry of “Ymlaen!” and her ability to mobilise young people invigorated the Party membership and boosted its numbers. However politics and the fortune of nations turn on wider support. As a federalist and an avowed Marxist she occupies two of the smaller constituencies from which to build a majority. “Outflanking Labour from the left” is not a credible political strategy and the warm endorsement of the Welsh Communist Party will not feature on the Party’s letterhead. 

And so the to the Leader’s first test in battle. Setting the broad paint brush of strategy aside, could the finer brush strokes of local elections on local issues prove this analysis wrong? Would the devil be in the detail? Could personal politics and the handfuls of votes cast in remote, rural polling stations demonstrate a deeper connection and broader appeal to Welsh citizens? Could she reach good, honest, hard working Welsh folk, wanting a bit of help for their families in touch times, hoping for a lift in the local economy? Would she win the support of those proud to be Welsh and proud to vote for the “Party of Wales” in a local election? 

The results suggest otherwise. Plaid it could be argued, held its own. Indeed it remains the majority party in several counties. Net gains/losses might suggest little movement. But in truth, it failed. This was a huge setback. When dissatisfaction was deepest, hopes were highest, the simple truth is that by midnight on May 4th not a single Welsh council is run by Plaid. Anglesey of course had no election and only Labour can claim success and gains. The independents and NOC (“no overall control”) continue to be a big player in Welsh local politics. However, it is in Gwynedd that we see the true reflection of the demise of Plaid.

Back in 1925, Gwynedd was the birthplace of Plaid Cymru. Today some two-thirds of residents are first language Welsh speakers. If not Leanne’s personal politics then surely this is the safe ground from which a movement could be rebuilt?

In truth, this has not been safe ground for Plaid for years. Llais Gwynedd is a story worth telling but better told by others. However, what was dismissed as a narrow, single interest group that sang songs on the steps of Cyngor Gwynedd Council in protest at the closure of rural village primary schools has turned into a stone in the shoe of Plaid Cymru. The harder they stamp, the more it hurts them.

The 2010 general Election in Gwynedd heartlands also revealed the wobble in Plaid’s support base. Hopes for a “magnificent seven” seats in the UK parliament were revealed as baseless and they did well to hang on to the three they had, including the new Arfon seat. With proposed boundary changes we may never know what could happen in Arfon’s boundaries over time, but the general election was dominated by a two prong tactical pinch: voters calculated who was most likely to beat Plaid in Caernarfon and who was most likely to beat Labour in Bangor. Plaid’s majority tumbled. Labour came within touching distance. The Conservative vote grew dramatically, through the middle, a local candidate drawing on dissatisfaction with both and memories of the effective Lord Roberts.

Plaid’s majority on Gwynedd Council – never the strongest and always under threat – is now gone. Its hopes for a majority reduced to the outcome of a by-election in a ward where neither they (nor any other Party) could manage to raise a candidate. This is as damning an indictment of local political governance in Gwynedd as any economic statistic. Seasoned Gwynedd watchers will also know this is not an isolated event. Several more urban wards were decided on less than a few hundred votes cast.

And what of the fight itself? In Llanwnda, a leading Llais figure was targeted by Plaid. They rolled out their local man and an intensive campaign, blessed by the aging, but iconic Dafydd Iwan as Agent and Lord Dafydd Wigley as canvasser-in-chief. To no avail, as the result was an increase in the Llais majority.

In Deiniolen a long serving, senior Plaid Councillor very active in the Gwynedd administration was defeated by a local independent who was “well liked” in the village. The Plaid candidate's list of activity, every Chairmanship and senior position held filled a side of paper. The independent noted that he lived with his parents and enjoyed playing snooker in the evenings.

Bethel ward was perhaps the biggest shock, lost to the diligent work of an active Labour candidate.

ACT IV: AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

So the “narrative arc” of our drama comes full circle and Act IV has returned us to where the story started. We all care deeply for Wales and things Welsh. I am the first to acknowledge the importance of a Party built on national interest and the preservation of language and culture. These are valid perspectives and vital – in its truest meaning, they are “essential for life” for Wales.

From its humble origins “Y Mudiad Cymreig” (the Welsh Movement) has made huge gains and left a permanent and proud mark on Welsh politics. But the high water mark has been reached and that tide is now running out. With just one Welsh EU seat, less than one-tenth of Welsh Parliamentary seats, one-sixth of local government and Assembly seats, Plaid may always have a proud voice. But it has not proved its ability to govern and by overlooking leaders with the potential to influence and appeal beyond the Party, not just within, it has settled for the Opposition benches. The results confirm this.

This Act is still being written, but it appears the plot line is set. The inconvenient truth is that gains we have in Wales have come from mainstream parties. Not English parties, but Welsh. Voted for by Welsh people.

One way or another, mainstream politics and parties are the future in Wales. We must grapple with their agendas to secure the best deal for Wales.

For all our sakes, the debate must move now towards the damage done by a fourteen year experiment in socialist politics here in Wales. In Anglesey alone the loss of aluminium production and power generation goes beyond metaphors such as “asleep at the wheel”. We still rely on Objective 1 EU funding, seemingly locked into deprivation and dependency.

Plaid does not have an answer and as a result, is rapidly losing its relevance and meaning to those who should care the most.

And “most” is what is counted in politics.

Leanne Wood, the bell curve, and Wylfa B

There are very little votes to the Left of Labour

Yesterday Leanne Wood was elected as the new Leader of Plaid Cymru. A self professed socialist and avowed republican, she was throughout the leadership campaign the Plaid Activists' choice (the various Plaid supporting blogs have spent the last months collectively swooning over her). The problem for any political party however is that there is generally something of a gulf between what its own activists want, and the views of the average person who may vote for that party. This will be especially true for Plaid Cymru which has anyway relied on cobbling together support from two diverse demographic constituencies: the 'iaith a gwlad' vote in North West Wales and the Left of Labour vote in the South. Ieuan Wyn Jones actually manage to hold these two groups together pretty well, but I think its obvious that Leanne Wood — a first language English speaker from South Wales who wants to attack Labour from the Left — will probably end up alienating a considerable portion of Plaid's traditional support in the North. No doubt she will appeal to some who have never voted Plaid before, but the problem for her is that the majority of votes are to be found in the centre ground of the political bell curve: on the centre-left and centre-right. Putting forward a policy agenda on the friges of the centre-left may excite Plaid's activists, but it will necessarily bring only diminishing demographic returns. 

(Incidentally, in case you are thinking "well, he would say that wouldn't he", I note that John Dixon, Plaid's former National Chair, has just written something similar).

On top of all this, and as fellow Plaid leadership contender Lord Dafydd Elis-Thomas himself repeatedly said, Leanne Wood will also especially alienate Ynys Môn voters because of her hardline stance against Wylfa B. She reiterated her complete opposition to Wylfa B just last month in front of local Plaid members during a campaign visit to Llangefni — a meeting in which she also first revealed her plan to replace the thousands of lost Nuclear jobs by siting a massive Quango called the "Energy Department for Wales" on Ynys Môn instead. According to Leanne this will be paid for by winning "control of Crown Estate revenue and a fair share of nuclear decommissioning funds". Even in the unlikely case that Crown Estate monies could be won, I find it extremely difficult to understand how money which is supposed to be spent on safely decommissioning Wylfa could instead be diverted into funding Leanne's pet Quango? Obviously this policy was not meant to be taken seriously — it is merely a convenient crutch for her and Plaid's Ynys Môn local election candidates to use next year to try to show that, despite all evidence to the contrary, they do not want to further damage Ynys Môn's stumbling economy for the sake of burnishing Leanne's 'socialist', anti-nuclear credentials. 

Elections denied, Anglesey hit by LARGEST Council Tax rise in entire United Kingdom

Today Anglesey's Commissioners and the Shadow Executive agreed to raise next year's Council tax by 4.5 percent. This means that while we are denied an election, the third POOREST county in the United Kingdom will be hit with the LARGEST council tax rise not just in Wales, but in the entire United Kingdom.

Council Tax rises from April this year

In fact a rise of 5 percent was supported by Labour and Plaid Cymru — it is only thanks to pressure from the Independents that it was eventually reduced down to a still massive 4.5 percent. In the council press release, Commissioner Byron Davies justified the rise by arguing it is necessary to safeguard the Island's three swimming pools and also spare public toilets from the axe.

However thats not the explanation for the this extraordinary rise. These are the real reasons:

• The Commissioners have failed to deliver on £1.2 million worth of savings they were mandated to make this year. As a consequence of this, £600,000 has had to be covered by dipping into the council's bank account, £281,000 was judged to have been unachievable anyway, and the remaining £368,000 now needs to be found in addition to the further savings required next year. As £250,000 is roughly equivalent to one percentage point on Anglesey's council tax, this failure to deliver by the Commissioners has added an extra one and half percentage points to next year's bills.
• The Commissioners, under direction from Cardiff, have further decided to spend an additional £1 million on 'strengthening' the 'Corporate Centre'. £300,000 of this will go on improving Children's services — something nobody will quibble with — however the remaining £600,000 (worth two and half percentage points on your council tax bill) will mostly be spent on hiring more HQ staff.
• Despite the above additional costs being placed on Anglesey by Cardiff, Ynys Môn council this year received the second worse funding settlement from the Welsh Government — a cut of -1.2% compared to an average increase to other Welsh councils of 0.58%.
• The Welsh Government has long complained that Ynys Môn has kept its Council Tax too low. In my view this has always been justified by the fact that Ynys Môn has long been officially the poorest place in the country. However, by sanctioning the largest council tax rise in the United Kingdom, the Commissioners have clearly shown that they are here not to do their best by the residents of Ynys Môn, but to best serve the interests of the Welsh Government in Cardiff.

Furthermore, despite being more than partially responsible for the need for such a large rise, both the unaccountable Commissioners and Carl Sargeant, the Welsh Minister for Local Government, have strong-armed Councillors into acquiescing to the largest Council Tax rise in the UK by stressing that it would be an "acid test" of their political maturity (a lack of debate apparently shows maturity). The carrot of a partial return of powers (and special allowances) was also dangled before the shadow executive.

This budget will now go to a vote before the Full Council on March 6th. Despite opposition from Labour and Plaid who supported the original 5 percent rise, the Independents have done well to get it cut down to 4.5 percent — however they have shied away from provoking any further confrontation with the Commissioners and Cardiff. However, with completely new local boundaries being forced onto Anglesey next year specifically to get rid of Independent councillors, I wonder why they feel they have anything more to lose? They cannot be penalised any further by Cardiff — it would be better for their electoral chances next year if they returned to their traditional low tax roots and made a stand on behalf of Anglesey residents by voting against this rise on March 6th. These rises are not purely to safeguard services and facilities, therefore it surely cannot be right to impose the single largest council tax increase in the entire United Kingdom on its third poorest area.

Dafydd Elis-Thomas, Pylons, and the perils of Google Street View.

A very interesting 'Yr Byd ar Bedwar' on S4C this evening dealing with various aspects of the protests against wind turbines on Ynys Môn. At the end of the programme, Plaid Cymru leadership contender Dafydd Elis-Thomas was interviewed and dismissed concerns that giant wind turbines would destroy the landscape by saying that where he lived in Dyffryn Conwy he was surrounded by pylons.

Well, as Elis-Thomas's address is published on the Assembly election nomination papers, we can take a look at the actual view over his house:

Dafydd Elis-Thomas's house, nestled somewhere in the trees in the centre of this image

Bechod! Must be awful to be surrounded by so many pylons...

Anglesey Plaid: "surprised and disappointed" with Ieuan Wyn Jones

The Daily Post headline

The Leader of the Plaid Cymru group within Anglesey County Council, Cllr Bob Parry, has slammed Ieuan Wyn Jones's decision to support postponing elections on Ynys Môn.

In the Daily Post he says, "It is very disappointing and surprising that the party have gone against the views of its local members who have opposed the delay". As Cllr Parry apparently didn't know about the decision until afterwards, one has to wonder who Ieuan Wyn Jones consulted prior to making his decision. The Daily Post reports that he wrote to the Minister supporting the postponement "on behalf of the party's constituency committee". Judging by Cllr Parry's surprise, we can only conclude that this committee is too august a body to include Cllr Parry, who is after all only Deputy Leader of the council and Leader of the Plaid Cymru group.

Ieuan Wyn Jones's letter to Carl Sargeant apparently says that the delay in the presentation of the Boundary Commission's proposals for Ynys Môn meant that there was little option now but to defer the elections for 12 months. A better question surely would be to ask, "why have the boundary commission's proposals been so delayed?" Or "why are these far reaching boundary changes being rushed through on Ynys Môn with only four weeks consultation when the rest of Wales will have four years?"

It is the Welsh Government and Boundary Commission's responsibility to meet the deadlines of local democracy, not vice versa.

Schism: Ieuan Wyn Jones and Ynys Môn's Plaid Councillors

IWJ: deliberately avoiding
the question

As reported in yesterday's Daily Post, Ieuan Wyn Jones has sought to completely sidestep the question of the whether he supports the postponement of local elections in Ynys Môn or not. This is what he is quoted as saying:

"Plaid Cymru’s Constituency Committee for Ynys Môn is carefully considering the plans for local government electoral changes on Anglesey. The document presented by the Boundary Commission needs to be thoroughly evaluated in view of the far-reaching proposals contained within it.
"We will not give a knee-jerk reaction like some other parties but give the proposals the consideration they deserve. We will be presenting our response before the deadline early in the New Year."

There is no question that the proposed boundary changes need to be considered carefully and in detail — nobody disputes that. However the issue is why is Ynys Môn only being given four weeks (over the Christmas period too) to consult on them whereas the rest of Wales will have four years? If Ieuan Wyn Jones considers that they should not be responded to in a "knee-jerk" manner and, indeed, that they will lead to "far-reaching" changes then why would he accept that we are only being given four weeks to consult on them? 

The fact remains that these boundary changes are being rushed through by the Minster in order to facilitate a postponed election in 2013 under new electoral arrangements designed purposefully to eliminate Independent councillors. This is not how proper, sustainable, organic "democratic renewal" should be brought about. Even Plaid Cymru's Ynys Môn councillors — those who notionally will gain the most from the proposed changes — have taken a principled stand against them. Furthermore Plaid Cymru's former Party Chair, John Dixon, has said unequivocally that he thinks the proposals amount to "rigging the electoral system" and has spoke out against them. Yet it seems clear from Ieuan Wyn Jones' side-stepping response to the Daily Post that he is prepared support a postponement and in so doing is ignoring both his own local Plaid Cymru councillors, and the best interests of Ynys Môn, in favour or securing narrow party advantage at a rigged and postponed local election in 2013.

In the meantime, certain commentators on this blog and elsewhere continue to support the proposed boundary changes and delayed elections on Ynys Môn. Below are the reasons why I feel they are wrong:

• The proposed reduction down to 30 councillors leaves too few for the council to operate effectively. Although a smaller reduction in numbers is warranted, a council of just 30 members will require that, on top of their duties to constituents, virtually all of them will need to take executive and portfolio positions, staff the various committees, attend to statutory obligations on police and fire associations, etc. This will mean in the short-term that being a councillor will become a full-time job; and in the long-term it will simply pave the way for rolling Anglesey up into Greater Gwynedd — something that is not in the best interests of Ynys Môn residents.
• For the above reason, younger people with jobs, mothers with small children etc. will not find it possible time-wise to fulfil their obligations as councillors and will thus be discouraged from standing for election. Reducing the amount of people able to stand for election is not conducive to 'democratic renewal'.
• A reduction down to just 11 new multi-member 'super-wards', spanning both urban and rural areas, could mean that all the elected members in one ward could come from just one small part of the ward (likely the urban parts) and thus be unfamiliar with the rest of their ward. This is not in the best interests of constituents.
• Similarly, these larger wards make it impossible for Independent councillors without Party backing to get elected. For example, the proposed ward of Central Anglesey has 5,829 electors and therefore approximately up to 3,000 households. Independent members will have no chance to canvass all of these households and sending out a leaflet would could cost upwards of £2,000 in printing and postage charges. Again reducing the pool of people able to stand for election is not conducive to 'democratic renewal'.
• As already discussed, why are these proposals being rushed through? The rest of Wales will get four years to consult on their boundary changes, Ynys Môn is getting just four weeks (over the Xmas period too thus effectively making it shorter). 
• Postponed elections will not allow issues like next year's council tax rises, cuts to services etc to be discussed and debated, nor will it allow all the Parties and candidates to set out their policy stalls in an election.
• Finally, as the WLGA says, all Welsh counties should be treated equally. The Minister is attempting to introduce an electoral system unique in Wales to achieve his own desired election result. That is wrong.

The 2013 Ynys Môn Local Election results today

After some weekend number-crunching, here are my predictions for the 2013 local elections on Ynys Môn, assuming that the proposed new boundaries are accepted:

     Plaid Cymru:     11 seats
     Independents:     7 seats
     Labour:              6 seats
     Conservative:     5 seats
     Lib Dems:          1 seat

This would most probably result in a Plaid / Labour coalition, and the installation of Plaid's Bob Parry as Leader and Labour's John Chorlton as Deputy Leader.

Clearly the big winners would be Plaid Cymru, which would explain why Ieuan Wyn Jones promoted multi-member wards as the solution to Ynys Môn's local government problems during the Assembly election hustings. As far as I can see, Labour will not gain as many new seats as they suppose, and will in all probability only win two of the three seats on offer in the new 'Holy Island Port' super-ward.

A closer look at the new proposed boundaries throws up some interesting facts. Below is a map of the current electoral boundaries and the parties which hold them:

Anglesey's current local electoral map
Red: LAB, Green: PC, Blue: CON, Yellow: LD, Grey: IND
Click to enlarge

And this is a map of the new proposed boundaries overlaid on the above current map:

Yellow lines indicate the new proposed boundaries.
Number of Councillors returned by each new ward in brackets.
Click to enlarge

Although a number of current wards are cut into two, including Bodorgan, Llanfihangel Ysgeifiog, Llanfair-Yn-Neubwll and Pentraeth, only one of the current wards is to be split across three of the new wards: Bodffordd. Its almost as if the Boundary Commission was trying to ensure that somebody with a powerbase in Bodffordd could never get elected again...

What Plaid's Assembly opening boycott stunt really shows us.

The boycotting of yesterday's official opening of the Assembly by a rump of Plaid AMs has provoked a great deal of media comment. As far as I'm concerned the most interesting aspect of the whole affair is that it highlights the extraordinary disjoint between what Plaid Cymru claims it stands for – and what it actually does. Here is my contribution to the debate as per my letter in today's Daily Post:

On Tuesday four Plaid Cymru AMs boycotted the official opening of the Welsh Assembly on the grounds that their desire for an independent republic of Wales was incompatible with attending a ceremony presided over by the Queen. Strangely this idealism hasn't prevented any of the four from taking the oath of alleigence to the same Queen — a pre-requisite to taking up their positions (and, more importantly I suspect, their taxpayer-funded salaries); neither has it prevented Senior Plaid Cymru politicians such as Baron Wigley of Caernarfon or Lord Elis-Thomas from accepting life peerages from the Crown (in fact Dafydd Elis-Thomas is even a member of the Privy Council, a body which directly advises the Monarch herself). 

So is Plaid Cymru really, truly for an independent Wales or not? Their latest manifesto doesn't mention the 'I' word except in relation to the 'operational independence' of S4C. Furthermore many of the party's stated policies actually make Welsh Independence less rather than more attainable. A party which was serious about seeking further devolution from the UK (as exemplified by the SNP in Scotland) would surely seek to pragmatically boost the private sector whist at the same time creating a lean, mean Welsh public sector which could be adequately funded with taxation raised within Wales's borders alone. Instead Plaid Cymru advocates ever more regulation of the struggling Welsh private sector whilst at the same time building an ever larger Welsh public sector, all funded by ever larger block grants from Westminster.  

Isn't the truth that Plaid Cymru has become nothing more than a party well to the left of Labour which wraps itself in the Ddraig Goch for electoral advantage? The boycotting of the official Assembly opening is a publicity stunt designed to reassure activists and traditional supporters that Plaid Cymru really does believe in Welsh Independence, even though their every action makes it less rather than more likely. 

As to Ieuan Wyn Jones's no-show on the grounds that he was "on holiday", it reminds me greatly of the contortions Gordon Brown wrapped himself in when he decided not to attend the official signing ceremony of the EU Lisbon treaty (because he didn't want to be seen to be too pro-Europe) but then did so several hours later by himself. IWJ seems to want the nationalist kudos for not attending, whilst at the same time avoiding the jeers.

UPDATE: Betsan Powys has some more on IWJ's French holiday here.

‘At what point are you going to recognise that what you do in terms of delivering business support is bad? It doesn’t work’

Open warfare has broken out between Labour and Plaid Cymru in Cardiff regarding Ieuan Wyn Jones's "mismanagement" of his Economy portfolio. In yesterday's Western Mail, various unnamed "senior Labour figures" are quoted as having said:

“Ieuan Wyn Jones is the One Wales weak link. This is not a party political attack – his handling of the economic brief during tough times has been absolutely shambolic. 

“He has lost the confidence and respect of Wales’ business community. Every businessperson I meet wants [former Labour Economy Minister] Andrew Davies brought back. Andrew understood the business community. Ieuan is out of his depth. 

“We hope his incompetence doesn’t reflect badly on Labour in May. There’s no reason why it should but we are very aware of the problem. Labour will have a strong offer for Welsh businesses at the time of the election.” 

A senior Welsh Labour MP said: “I’ve been very disappointed with the performance of Ieuan Wyn Jones. Even arranging a meeting with businesses in my constituency has proved impossible because he is not in control of his diary and is run by his officials. I hope he’s not in the job after May.” 

Another Labour AM said: “The gist of the criticism, which is widespread, is not about policy, so it is not a political attack in that sense. 

“The issue is with the management of the department: a total lack of engagement and understanding of the business community; a failure to respond to AMs and MPs in good time; a dismissive attitude towards local businesses experiencing problems.”

And its not just unnamed Labour sources who have been criticising Ieuan Wyn Jones' record as Minister for the Economy. South Wales businessman Paul Ragan, who sold his insurance business for £20m in 2008, is also quoted in the same article as saying:

“I’ve had an immense amount of feedback from businesses in Wales. The widespread view is that it’s a shame Ieuan Wyn Jones does not see that fundamentally what is wrong in Wales is the environment in which we provide our business support. The reality is that a majority of businesses do not get the support and are really frustrated. They struggle to understand where and how to access support. 

“We need a mix of large and small investors if the economy is to succeed. Economic renewal plans that reorganise the deck chairs are not what we want in Welsh business – we need action.” 

“I met Ieuan Wyn Jones and asked him, ‘At what point are you going to recognise that what you do in terms of delivering business support is bad? It doesn’t work’. 

“I asked him if he was concerned about the power that might be created – whether he was concerned it might become too dynamic. 

“Wales needs to lead and losing the likes of Bosch, Hoover, Visteon and TRW in the last 12 months must be seen as failing as they feed into small businesses and are the fabric of our economy. It is not about small versus big. Other countries have maintained momentum – consider the success in Scotland. It is like losing your star players and going down the leagues and saying ‘we can’t do much about it’ when we can.”

This morning, Plaid Cymru's Rural Affairs Minister, Elin Jones (herself the author of the heavily criticised agri-environmental 'Glastir' policy) has come to Ieuan Wyn Jones' defence by attacking his predecessor as Minister for the Economy, Andrew Davies:

“The attempt over the past few months to re-invent Andrew Davies as a competent Minister has been a shock to people across political parties. Since leaving office he has sought to blame his civil servants for lack of progress in his past Ministerial portfolios. 

“In my experience, a Minister who blames his civil servants has failed to get his civil servants to deliver on priorities. A Minister has to take charge of his civil servants and that is what Ieuan Wyn Jones has done since taking over the Economy and Transport portfolio. 

“The one major action of the Labour Assembly Government between 2003-07 was to merge the WDA and Wales Tourist Board into government. They managed to re-arrange the deckchairs but they did not change the Titanic’s course – they carried on in the same disastrous direction. 

“It took Ieuan Wyn Jones taking charge to get the civil service to work to political priorities, to adapt a well-received Economic Renewal Programme and to sort out a horrendous lack of financial control on transport budgets. He did all of this in the midst of a global economic crisis. A crisis that Ieuan is also recognised as have handled well."

So while both Labour and Plaid Cymru blame each other for their poor handling of the Welsh economy, I will leave you with the following chart, which shows how each region's economy has performed compared to the UK average over the past 10 years:

GVA per head indices. 100 = UK in 1989. Source: ONS

As you can see, in direct contrast to the remarkable gains made by Scotland in particular (who's pragmatic attitude to economic development we have previously discussed), the Welsh economy has suffered considerable comparative decline.

The truth behind the current mudslinging is that both Labour and Plaid Cymru have failed -- and failed badly.

What next for Anglesey County Council?

Despite the sacking of Labour leader, John Chorlton, from the executive it is far from clear yet whether the Labour group itself will withdraw its support from the Alliance. Indeed it appears that John Chorlton's portfolio of Planning and Environment has been offered to another Labour councillor. With the budget yet to be finalised and a host of other important decisions just down the road, Labour now have the messy business of deciding whether to act in the best interests of the Island, or to continue to support a leader who has been sacked for apparently trying to undermine Council Leader, Clive McGregor.

Having said that, even if remaining Labour members continue to support it can the minority ruling alliance now limp on like this until the Council AGM in May? Will perhaps the Original Independents step in? The events of the next few days will be crucial in determining what David Bowles and Elan Closs Stevens will recommend to the Minister in Cardiff.

So what happens if they decide that the "recovery" has irrevocably broken down? Following WAG's instructions last month for Ynys Môn and Gwynedd to "cooperate" together, the simplest way forward for WAG would be to proceed with a full merger of the two councils. Indeed, rumours suggest that Plaid Cymru in particular is very much for this as the strong Plaid support on the mainland would pretty much guarantee Plaid control of the merged council.

Although I see no problem with greater cooperation between the two councils in delivering services, I would completely oppose any loss of sovereignty for Ynys Môn. Not only for cultural or historical reasons, but also because of the more practical reason that Gwynedd Council currently has a budget black hole of almost £30 million -- compared to 'just' £10 million on Anglesey. With 75 councillors in Gwynedd against just 40 in Ynys Môn, I'm sure it wouldn't be long before various Anglesey assets such as our exceptionally large smallholdings estate would be sold off with planning permissions in order to fill the budgetary hole on the other side of the Straits.

In my opinion the political problems by themselves are not a good enough reason to seek the full merger of Anglesey and Gwynedd. Internal governance procedures have been strengthened significantly since David Bowles's arrival and, with just a few exceptions, it is undeniable that Anglesey County Council actually provides remarkably good services -- the news last week that IoACC recycles more waste than any other council in Wales is just one example of this. An influx of new blood into the Council at the local elections in 2012 -- and a campaign to ensure that -- would be the best remedy for our political problems, not a rushed and short-sighted merger with Gwynedd.

++ Parking Decision - deferred to Full Council ++

Good news for Anglesey's beleaguered small towncentre shops and businesses -- following Cllr Bryan Owen's swift action in 'calling-in' the controversial parking changes on Anglesey, the Scrutiny Committee has this morning resolved to send the Pay-and-Display decision to debate and vote at the next meeting of the Full Council.

The ruling Plaid Cymru/Labour coalition tried to impose these new parking fees without consultation and 'under the radar' -- however if they now want to drive it through they will have to vote for it openly in the Council Chamber on December 9th. You can be sure that this blog will record exactly how each councillor decides to vote.

Adam Price is right -- and I can prove it.

As far as I'm concerned Adam Price, the ex-Plaid Cymru MP and leadership contender, hit the nail squarely on the head when he told a BBC Wales programme yesterday that:

"a lack of skills amongst [Welsh Assembly] politicians is making it difficult to tackle big economic challenges".

He also went on to say:

"The gap between the problems we face in Wales and the skill-set of the people we're drawing in to politics is huge".

I couldn't agree more. In our current straightened times all politics is economics -- and accordingly we need politicians with some understanding of where wealth comes from, how to use it wisely, and, most importantly, and how to invest in skills, infrastructure, and business so as to generate more of it. Unfortunately the vast majority of our current Assembly Members are drawn exclusively from the public sector and have never had to create any wealth themselves. (Please note that I am not attacking civil servants, I am just saying that they are vastly over-represented as a group thus depriving the Assembly of other equally valuable life experiences and outlooks).

Don't believe me? Take a look at the below 'Druid Research Centre' analysis of the backgrounds of all 60 of our Assembly Members to see what life and work experience they had before becoming full-time politicians. Here are the results for the ruling coalition of Labour and Plaid Cymru Assembly Members:

Welsh Assembly Ruling Coalition AMs - Click to enlarge

Of 39 Labour and Plaid Cymru AMs, only 10 percent of them have ever had any private sector business experience. The overwhelming majority (62 percent) have worked in the public sector all their lives with the remainder coming from voluntary-sector, law, religion, media and politics backgrounds. When looked at through the lens of wealth creation - a staggering 87 percent of the Labour / Plaid coalition have never had a wealth-creating job (the Druid is using Adam Smith's definition of 'wealth creation' whereby materials, labour, land, and technology are combined in such a way as to capture a profit, i.e. excess above the cost of production). Is it really any surprise that Economic Development polices in Wales are not working when only a very tiny fraction of the government have ever had any wealth creating experience themselves? 

Here are the breakdowns by party:

LABOUR

Labour AMs - click to enlarge

PLAID CYMRU

Plaid Cymru AMs - click to enlarge

CONSERVATIVES

Conservative AMs - click to enlarge

LIB DEMS

Lib Dem AMs - click to enlarge

The Lib Dems are frankly the worse of a very bad bunch - not a single Lib Dem AM has ever been anywhere near a business, comprised as they are of four ex-teachers and two ex-civil servants. But at least they are not in power - coalition partner Plaid Cymru on the other hand is almost equally bad with just one AM (Alun Ffred Jones) ever having had any wealth creating experience. 

It is imperative for a country like Wales, struggling as it is with high unemployment and a dwindling industrial- and business-base, to have more private-sector and wealth creating experience in its national legislature. However as Adam Price correctly identifies, Welsh parties are drawing politicians "from a vanishingly small gene-pool" and really need to look deeply at themselves and ask why it is that they are attracting so few people from business backgrounds when there is such an obvious need for their skills and experience.

++ Anglesey Council ruling Alliance releases Manifesto ++

In a remarkably positive step the ruling Alliance at Anglesey County Council, comprising of Llais i Fôn, Plaid Cymru, Labour and the Menai Group, have just released the below Manifesto/Policy Document outlining their aims and priorities in governing the council. This document has been approved by the National Executives of both Plaid Cymru and Labour and covers the following thirteen policy areas:

• Education and Leisure
• Social Services
• Housing / Homes
• Human Resources
• Economic Development, Work and Tourism
• Transport
• The Environment
• Property
• Finance
• Customer Service
• Planning
• Law and Order
• Corporate Affairs

This blog has long argued that one of the main reasons for dysfunction at Anglesey County Council is because our councillors lack both a shared vision for the Island and a policy roadmap of how to get there. This is in large part due to a significant number of Independents who are elected without issuing to voters in their wards either individual or group manifestos. Because of this: (a) residents are only able to vote on personalities and not policies; and (b) as we do not know in detail what they are voting for, it is impossible for us to then evaluate our councillor’s performance when the next council elections come around. Accordingly we should all welcome the Alliance's decision to publish this document because -- whatever we think of its content -- it represents a belated recognition by our councillors that by engaging in a 'battle of ideas' instead of a 'battle of personalities', both local democracy and the council's responsiveness to our needs can only be improved.

I will be posting my thoughts on its content in due course, but in the meantime I urge you all to take a look at the full Alliance manifesto below and share your thoughts and comments. IoACC Alliance Policy Document#32

Why more accountability is necessary in setting Public Sector budgets

The revelations about the pay-off made to the outgoing head of the Wales Audit Office are simply staggering:

"According to information disclosed under the Freedom of Information Act, Anthony Snow was paid £107,580 in compensation when he left his job in September 2009 and the WAO will also have to pay more than £618,000 of his pension contributions until he turns 60."

This comes to a total of more than £750,000 -- yet farcially Mr Snow found himself another well-remunerated public sector job as COO of the Financial Reporting Council quango just six weeks later. Lets put these numbers into context: in this example just one Welsh public servant has received a pay-off amounting to almost half of the putative £2million cuts to the S4C which are currently causing such a fuss. And lets not forget that this is not an isolated incident: remember the hundreds of Welsh NHS executives who had their £50K plus salaries protected for ten years (!) following the reorganisation of the service which cut local health boards down from 32 to just seven?

And yet, despite all this, we are asked to believe by Labour and Plaid Cymru in the Assembly that the Welsh public sector is so unimprovably productive that any budget cuts at all will affect front line services. I'm afraid as just these two examples show, the lack of any competitive or downwards pressure on public sector budgets just leads to an otherworldly profligacy -- especially with regards to top-end public sector salaries. We need look no further than David Bowles' £1,000-a-day pay deal at Anglesey Council to know that this is true.

Only by applying some direct accountability for results in the setting of public sector yearly budget rises can these kind of excesses be avoided in the future. This is one of the reasons why I am a supporter of the coalition proposal to elect police commissioners, as one of the main planks of this policy also includes the need for any rises to the police precept element of council tax to be approved in a local referendum. The Police will be free to explain why they think they need more tax money, and the public will be free to accept the rise or not. In fact I would be happy to see this policy extended to include council tax rises as a whole, whereby local authorities would have to make their case in a local referendum. Based on the council's record and future plans, local residents can then decide what level of settlement they feel is fitting.

Imagine how much more engaged Ynys Môn residents would be with local politics and with the actions of councillors if we had the opportunity to hold Anglesey Council to account in this way. Imagine how much better services the council would need to provide in order to justify a rise in their budgets...

The Alliance limps on

Sorry if this is old news for some but I've just got back and am catching up. I see from Friday's Daily Post that an unnamed Plaid spokesman has said that "all parties involved aren't particularly happy with certain elements and have had input into changes in the operational document" and therefore the Alliance Terms of Engagement was being merely being "subjected to revision" to meet Plaid Cymru objections. Why now? The final Alliance Terms of Engagement were signed by all Member Group Leaders (including Plaid's Cllr Bob Parry) on June 7th, i.e. more than two months ago. Why is it that Plaid Cymru is only now waking up and making objections? Did Bob Parry not discuss this with our AM, Plaid Cymru's Leader Ieuan Wyn Jones at the time?

Cllr Bob Parry is further reported in the Daily Post as saying "There is no truth whatsoever in reports that Plaid Cymru are having to walk away from the Alliance. The Alliance is secure. We have one member (Rhian Medi) who has chosen to not sign up to the Alliance but she remains a Plaid Cymru member. All other members have signed up and remain in the Alliance". Not according to the Golwg article which states "that the majority of Plaid members are unhappy with the agreement" ("gyda mwyafrif cynghorwyr Plaid Cymru'n anhapus gyda'r cytundeb").

The original Golwg article further reported that Plaid Cymru's National Executive was unhappy that Plaid policies are not being pushed as part of the agreement. The Druid wonders what Plaid policies they have in mind? No to nuclear power, perhaps? Or maybe Plaid's policy of banning all low level flight training from RAF Valley? Furthermore as only eight of the 40 County Councillors represent Plaid, perhaps Plaid's National Executive may want think about what kind of democratic legitimacy they have in trying to push through Plaid policies through the back door in this way.

Is Plaid Cymru withdrawing from the Alliance for the right reasons?

I will be heading dros y bont this weekend so blogging is likely to be light. However, I will leave you with two thoughts before I go:

1. Plaid Cymru's reported withdrawal from the Alliance

A knowledgeable commenter on the previous thread writes:

"I suspect that those [Plaid Cymru councillors] who have refused to sign the terms of engagement have moral reservations that are stronger than the given reason, (loss of position of whip in the Alliance).

Whileas Plaid's National Executive may have reservations about the extremely contentious 'naming, shaming and excluding' clause; they may find that objecting to procedural inconsistencies with their own policies is a politically safer path to tread."

Other commenters have written that whatever Plaid's motives, it is in the best interests of Anglesey residents that the Alliance fails. My feelings are that if Plaid have indeed withdrawn from the Alliance for higher moral reasons than the ones given, then they are behaving in a very cowardly manner in not making those reasons known and trying to sell their position to the people of Anglesey. If the Alliance does now fall (and its difficult to see how it cannot without Plaid's support) and Carl Sargeant makes good on his threat of "drastic and permanent consequences", then Plaid are plunging us all into the unknown for no good reason. During a period of severe austerity cuts, we will have Cardiff Bay-appointed commissioners without any democratic oversight deciding which Anglesey services will be cut and which saved. Furthermore, we will have no say on the "permanent consequences" to the future structure of the Council. If Plaid Cymru is doing all this for the 'right reasons' then they should try to sell that argument NOW - and not inevitably try and spin after the fact that they were really acting under the best motives all along.

2. The Council's complaint about Cllr Durkin to the Ombudsman

Whatever the rights or wrongs of making a complaint about Cllr Durkin to the Ombudsman, Glyn Pritchard-Jones makes a very good point that it is an extraordinarily poor use of £75,000 of public funds (i.e. the reported legal bill) at a time when the council is cutting various public services. As Glyn says:

"Closing the Council's tourist office at Holyhead was a faux pas as the sole employee would cost Anglesey Council perhaps at best £75,000 over a three year period ignoring the invisible fiscal benefits such an office contributes to the island."

The question I would like to ask is: why is the Council's legal department unable to prepare the complaint by themselves without the assistance of expensive external solicitors?

++ Council Crisis: Plaid Cymru walk away from Alliance ++

The Welsh language news website, Golwg360, is reporting that the Plaid Cymru National Executive Committee has ruled that Anglesey County Council's Terms of Engagement are counter to the constitution of Plaid Cymru because of the following clause:

"The Alliance shall appoint a "whip" whose primary functions shall be: to ensure successful and timely communication across all Groups represented on the Alliance; and to ensure and monitor adherence to the Terms of the Alliance ... Anyone so appointed shall be drawn from amongst the Groups whose members do not include the Council's Leader or Deputy, from time to time."

As the Deputy Leader is of course Plaid's Bob Parry, this means that the appointed whip must be from either Labour or the Menai Group. However it appears that it is contrary to Plaid's constitution for a Plaid member to be disciplined by a whip not from within Plaid. (Update: Cllr Cliff Everett writes to let us know that the whip is Labour's John Chorlton).

Furthermore, Plaids National Executive are apparently unhappy that Bob Parry signed the Terms of Engagement without consulting them, and that Plaid policies were not pushed as part of the agreement. As a consequence it now seems that the majority of Plaid's eight councillors have now refused to sign the Terms and Plaid Cymru must as a group withdraw from the Alliance.

Although Golwg does not report any official reply from the Council, this must effectively mean that the Alliance is now over. WAG Local Government Minister, Carl Sargeant has already made his position vis-a-vis the collapse of the Alliance in this letter to all councillors on June 30:

"...arrangements can fall apart as fast as they can be put together. Accordingly I have asked my officials and the Recovery Board to prepare contingency plans which we can implement urgently if recovery falters and/or the alliance fails. Those plans would have drastic and possible permanent consequences for the council and its current membership. It is in everyone's interests to ensure that they are never needed."

So, because of Plaid Cymru's prissy and self-centred concern for their 'procedures' over whats best for the council and the residents of Anglesey, we could now be just days away from direct rule from Cardiff.   And this from the party which styles itself as being "local champions"... Where is our 'invisible' AM, Ieuan Wyn Jones in all of this??

Classic moments from the Anglesey Show

Seeing as its the first day of the Anglesey Show tomorrow, its a good opportunity to remind ourselves of this classic pseudo-evangelical performance outside the Plaid tent a couple of years ago...



IWJ's body language during the first little performance says it all...

Plaid Councillor calls Council Terms of Engagement "wrong and slanderous"

Cllr Rhian Medi (Plaid Cymru)

In an interview in this weeks edition of the Welsh language magazine, Golwg, Plaid Cymru county councillor Rhian Medi has publicly slammed Anglesey County Council's "Terms of Engagement":

• She calles the Allliance's Terms of Engagement "wrong and slanderous" ("wallus ac enllibus");
• She claims that the Terms of Engagement go against the internal regulations of Plaid Cymru in calling for any Alliance member who doesn't support it to be disciplined by all of the leaders of the Alliance;
• The number of councillors who accept the Terms of Engagement are in the minority;
• To attack individuals and name names is a step back in the history of the Council;
• David Bowles is supposed to stop the infighting and lead the council forward, yet we have returned to personal politics;
• If things deteriate any further then the Assembly will have to take control of the Council.

Considering that Plaid Cymru leader, Cllr Bob Parry, signed the Terms of Engagement and brought his Plaid Cymru councillors into the Alliance with him, Rhian Medi's outburst is both a personal attack on him and must bring the Council one step closer to being taken over by Assembly appointed commissioners. Surely the Recovery Board will feel that an outburst like this from a member of the Alliance is indicative of serious fractures within it.

What will now happen to Rhian Medi? Article 4 of the Terms of Engagement makes it very clear what should happen:

 "Any member of the Groups within the Alliance who does not publicly support this stance, and refuses to "sign up" to the principle described in the paragraph above [i.e. isolate and publicly identify those Councillors who block progress], or whom their Group Leader  considers to have failed to demonstrate sufficient ongoing commitment to the recovery, shall be ejected from their Group". 

Bob Parry has no choice: he must now eject Rhian Medi from the Plaid Cymru grouping. However doing so could have unknown consequences for the governance of the Council as a whole.

IWJ to stand down as Plaid leader during next Assembly term?

According to WalesOnline, Plaid Cymru strategists were planning on having Ynys Môn AM, Ieuan Wyn Jones, step down as Plaid's leader sometime during the next Assembly term. However these plans have now apparently been scuppered as IWJ's heir apparent, ex-Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP Adam Price, has just ruled himself out of standing in next year's Assembly elections.

Price stood down from his Carmarthen East and Dinefwr seat at Westminster at the last General Election in order to take up a one year Fulbright scholarship to Harvard University, telling the BBC "My aim will be to seek nomination and stand for election in 2011 as part of Ieuan Wyn Jones's assembly team". Today however he has confirmed that he will not be standing for the Assembly after all, ostensibly because his Harvard course does not finish until May. Apparently Price also wanted to stand for the same Carmarthen East and Dinefwr seat in the Assembly but the current AM, Plaid's Rhodri Glyn Thomas, has apparently refused to make way. Nothing to stop him putting his name forward for the regional lists though...

With Price's announcement coming so soon after Plaid's Chairman, John Dixon, also stepped down citing "that the party has moved, or is moving, in a direction which I cannot support, but being a national office-holder has fettered my freedom to say so", one has to wonder if there aren't more serious problems bubbling below the surface at Plaid Cymru.

As for IWJ, before he can consider stepping down during the next Assembly term, he first has to get himself re-elected...

UPDATE: John Dixon himself has just posted on whether it is Plaid policy or not for IWJ to step down as Leader during the next Assembly term. He effectively calls it "fiction".