Classic moments from the Anglesey Show

Seeing as its the first day of the Anglesey Show tomorrow, its a good opportunity to remind ourselves of this classic pseudo-evangelical performance outside the Plaid tent a couple of years ago...



IWJ's body language during the first little performance says it all...

The General Election: Anglesey to break a 60 year tradition

            
It is a remarkable fact that Anglesey voters have not rejected a sitting MP at a General Election for almost 60 years - the last time being when Labour's Cledwyn Hughes beat the sitting Liberal MP, Megan Lloyd George in 1951. Since then, the seat has only changed hands (and party) when the sitting MP has for whatever reason stood down:

• Cledwyn Hughes, later Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos, retained the seat for 28 years until he decided to step down at the 1979 general election - clearing the way for a young Conservative councillor from Brighton, Keith Best, to win the seat for the Conservatives. 
• Keith Best held the seat in 1983 against a young Ieuan Wyn Jones. Indeed IWJ had to wait until the 1987 election to win Anglesey for Plaid Cymru - but only after Keith Best had become embroiled in the BT shares row and had been forced to stand down. 
• Ieuan Wyn went on to win the next two Westminster elections in 1992 and 1997, but stood down prior to the 2001 election in order to devote himself to the Welsh Assembly after having become Ynys Môn's first AM in 1999. 
• This opened the way for Labour's Albert Owen to regain the seat for Labour in 2001, narrowly beating Plaid Cymru's Eilian Williams.

And, as we know, Albert Owen retained the seat in 2005 and no doubt hopes that Anglesey will continue its 60 year tradition of backing sitting MPs. I fear this time he will be disappointed...

However, even if Albert Owen is not the Island's MP this time tomorrow, I don't think we are about to get the MP we deserve. The bookies' favourite (at 3/1 to win) is Plaid Cymru's Dylan Rees - a wholly uninspiring candidate. To illustrate the point, the Druid has just found his video of Rees speaking at a Plaid Cymru rally in Beaumaris last week:


  
It is striking that the worst thing he can think to say about the catastrophic state of Anglesey after 13 years of Labour government is... that they closed some Post Offices on the Island! Of course we all regret rural post offices closing, but we have far larger, more important problems that that - such as:

• A GDP per head of only half of the UK average thus making it officially the poorest region in the UK according to the Office of National Statistics; indeed Anglesey has even been compared to some of the poorest parts of Poland in a recent OECD report;
• The lowest GVA per head in Wales at just 53% of the UK’s average; 
• A dwindling private sector following the closures of Anglesey Aluminium (450 jobs), Eaton Electric (250 jobs), Peboc (100 jobs), Octel, Menai Electrical (50 jobs) and the downsizing of Vion/Welsh Country Foods (181 jobs) 
• A fastest rising and highest unemployment rate in North Wales; 
• An economic inactivity rate of 25.1%; 
• A changing population profile with a net outflow of 16-24 year olds; 
• And a completely screwed up County Council!

Why doesn't Dylan Rees mention any of this? I'll tell you why: because to do so would make his boss, Ieuan Wyn Jones - a man who has represented this Island as either MP or AM for the last 24 years - look stupid. An MP who is not able to recognise or speak about this Island's real problems for fear of making his boss look bad is not what we need.

The Druid believes that today Anglesey will break its 60 year tradition of not rejecting sitting MPs. The Druid further hopes that Anglesey will remember its newly found killer instinct next year at the Assembly elections and vote out Ieuan Wyn Jones too. Its clear that being Deputy First Minister, Leader of Plaid Cymru and Assembly Member for Ynys Môn is two jobs too many.
  
UPDATE: If you want to watch the Ynys Môn result live, it is expected to be declared between 1.00-1.30am tonight. (Hat tip: Miserable Old Fart)

UPDATE 00:31am: It appears from IWJ's interview on BBC Wales that the favourite Plaid's Dylan Rees has NOT won Ynys Môn. More to follow...
  

Voting for jobs and Wylfa B on Anglesey

      

The latest WAG Statistical Bulletin on the strength of the regional economy and labour market in North Wales arrives just in time to give us a final snapshot before the election on Thursday.

The most striking statistic is the fact that over the last year Anglesey has seen the largest rise in unemployment related benefits in North Wales, with 19% more people on the island now classified as claimants (compared to a rise of just 2% in the whole of Wales, and 6% in the whole of the UK).

This also chimes in with the ratio of jobseekers to jobs reported in the Daily Post yesterday. With more than 2000 claimants on Anglesey chasing just 102 available jobs advertised in JobCentres last month, the jobseeker to job ratio is 20:1 - the highest in North Wales. To underline how bad this is: it is twice as high as the next worse job spot in North Wales, Wrexham, where the ratio is 'only' just over 9:1.

This goes to prove the Druid's often repeated point that what Anglesey needs now is jobs, lots and lots of them. It is my opinion that Governments do not and cannot directly create sustainable, long-term jobs, they can only create the regulatory environment in which private businesses can take off and thrive (this also applies to Wylfa B). However, with an election just days away we do need to return an experienced, dynamic, business-savvy MP who can both represent us in Westminster and provide a focus for change here in Anglesey. Albert Owen has failed miserably in this respect and the front-runner, Plaid Cymru's Dylan Rees, has zero business or entrepreneurial experience (despite laughably trying to compare running a police section to running a company). 

The issue of who to vote for becomes more complex when we also include Wylfa B into the mix. Most residents on the Island (including the Druid) agree that Wylfa B is crucial to Anglesey's economic future. However as the building of new nuclear power stations requires government approval, there is a good possibility that Wylfa B could be scrapped in the event of a hung parliament where the anti-nuclear Lib Dems are likely to hold the balance of power. Plaid's Dylan Rees is personally pro-nuclear (probably due to personal political expedience rather than any heartfelt conviction) whilst his Party is resolutely anti-nuclear (as is their Scottish partners, the SNP); accordingly a vote for Rees is a vote for 1 pro-nuclear and 3 to 4 anti-nuclear voices in Westminster. Peter Rogers is pro-Wylfa B and would likely vote with his ex-party, the Conservatives in Parliament. Accordingly, any vote on Anglesey which does not return either a majority Labour or Conservative government, can probably be seen as a vote against Wylfa B. 

(One final note on the WAG's statistical bulletins - I am beginning to suspect that in producing regional bulletins for North, Mid, South West and South East Wales but not also compiling an all-Wales version, the WAG is deliberately trying to make intra-regional comparisons difficult to make. The claimant count rise for Anglesey which I outlined above may be the worse in all Wales, but to discover that would mean having to compare figures in 4 different reports - which unfortunately I don't have the time to do).
  

NFU/FUW Hustings Update

          

By all accounts last night's NFU/FUW Agricultural hustings was a rough and rowdy affair featuring some fiery exchanges between the candidates. Here's what I have been able to glean from a number of attendees:

• The venue was changed at the last moment from The Bull Hotel to the adjacent Llangefni Town Hall. Attendees were told that this was because a larger than expected number of people had turned up - however, as the Welsh Christian Party candidate, David Owen was also present could the real reason be because he had declined to attend a debate in a pub? After all he has been in the press objecting to the use of a pub in Llanfachtraeth as a polling station…
• Plaid's Dylan Rees was apparently surprisingly knowledgeable about matters agricultural, even pointing out in his opening address that he was "aware of the importance of farming to rural areas" - Really? Who'd have though it.
• All candidates rightly paid tribute to Albert Owen's private members bill to set up a Supermarket Ombudsman ("Oftrolley"), however Albert Owen himself candidly admitted that his party was not behind him (indeed the bill failed to go through before Parliament was recently suspended because the Labour government failed to provide time for the necessary debates and procedures). All candidates also said that if elected they would pledge to put similar legislation in place.
• The biggest bust up of the night came in exchanges between Albert Owen and the Conservative candidate, Anthony Ridge-Newman. Owen once again objected to Ridge-Newman saying that Anglesey is the poorest county in the UK by complaining that the Office of National Statistic's GVA figures only breaks Wales down into eight regions whilst there are 22 counties in Wales. Therefore should those eight regions be subdivided into counties, some places in South Wales would have even lower GVA figures then Anglesey. A clearly angry Ridge-Newman was cut off mid response by a member of the audience loudly demanding "how many counties are there in Wales?". Either the man was able to immediately follow Albert's torturous sophistry or was a frustrated geography teacher - whichever way, Ridge-Newman replied that he didn't know, but nor does he know how many counties there are in England or Scotland either. Cue a very smug expression on Albert Owen's face. For the sake of balance I should point out that the frustrated geography teacher later apparently also attacked Plaid's Dylan Rees and former MP, Keith Best, for only being "dynamic in applying for BT shares" so perhaps he wasn't entirely apolitical. 
• In exchanges about Wylfa B, Albert Owen revealed that Energy Secretary Ed Milliband had told him the day before that in the event of a hung parliament Labour would never compromise their pro-nuclear energy policy for the sake of clinging onto power in a coalition government. Dylan Rees was taken to task by the audience for Plaid Cymru's mixed messages on nuclear (Rees is personally pro-Wylfa B whilst his party, and his manifesto is strongly against it). This point was taken up by Peter Rogers who also pointed out that Plaid's Elfyn Llwyd was campaigning against low flying RAF jets in Wales, whilst Rees is pro-RAF valley. "At least we have a manifesto" retorted Rees - "whats the point of having one if you don't follow the policies in it?" came back Peter Roger's reply. At which point angry farmers complained to the Chairman that they had come to the meeting to discuss agricultural matters, not energy policy.
• A dairy farmer said that thanks to the fall of the pound against the euro, he was now doing very well indeed and therefore could any of the candidates tell him why he should vote for anyone other than Labour? The Druid is not sure if the farmer in question actually thought it was official Labour policy to wreck the UK economy and thus devalue sterling or not.
• Other questions from the floor covered the lack of new farmers coming in to the profession, damaging EU legislation, why French farmers got more benefits than UK farmers, and badger culls.
• The Welsh Christian Party's David Owen was apparently surprisingly jocular, coming out with some of the only gags of the evening. Whilst patting his quite large stomach he told the audience that he was glad to attend the agricultural hustings because he "likes his food". He also later revealed that there are "badgers on every street corner in South Wales". You heard it here first.
• The Lib Dem Matt Wood apparently had a poor night of it. With a small voice and arms waving around uncontrollably like those of a string puppet, he was rarely allowed to finish his points before the Chairman briskly moved on to the next question. The UKIP candidate, Elaine Gill, didn't turn up.

UPDATE: Another attendee calls to say that there was some unintended hilarity at the start of the hustings when the Chairman was forced to apologise that the fliers for the meeting incorrectly identifying Peter Rogers as the 'Conservative candidate'... ooh, touchy subject!
         

Quote of the Day 2 (Farmers v Police edition)

  
The Druid's report of the Treaddur Bay business hustings included the following section on Plaid's Dylan Rees:

"Dylan Rees told the assembled entrepreneurs that it was incorrect to say that he has no business experience. No, no, he said, as a Police Inspector he had to look after 40 officers, nine patrol cars, and deal with reams of paperwork - so it was just like running a company. The Druid begs to differ - there's a big difference between being a 'manager' and having the business acumen to develop products or services, find a market, take a financial risk, and make sales to meet a payroll."

This led to a discussion as to what 'business acumen' Peter Rogers has as a farmer. It was pointed out that a farm is actually a business, at which point a self-professed Plaid Cymru supporter then posted the below comment:

"Come on Druid, its clutching at straws to claim that a farm is a business and then claim that Dylan Rees has no business experience. The logical conclusion of that sort of analysis is that 'managing' 40 cows and 9 tractors is easier than 40 policemen and 9 police cars."

Leading to today's second Quote of the Day from Anonymous 09:35:

"I would say there is a massive difference between farming and policing - in policing there is no risk to your income, you have static or rising income, you invest none of your own money, you lose none of your own money, you make none of your own money, you follow orders and procedures rather than making your own decisions, there is an organisation responsible for your welfare and your retirement is taken care of."

Hear, hear.

Finally, the Agricultural Hustings will be held under the NFU and FUW's auspices in The Bull, Llangefni, this evening at 7pm. If you're interested in farming matters do attend, if not check back here later for the Druid's report.
  

Treaddur Bay Business Hustings Update

    
The Druid's spies are everywhere. And tonight they were at the Hustings held by the Federation of Small Businesses in the Treaddur Bay Hotel. One of them just called with the latest Ynys Môn election gossip:

• Albert Owen was berated by the assembled small business owners for Labour's planned National Insurance rise (definitely a tax on jobs according to a show of hands by those present) and also for this year's rise in Business Rates. The manager of Tre Ysgawen Hall revealed to gasps throughout the room how his rates had gone up from around £25,000 to £75,000 a year. Albert Owen tried to claim that the majority of Welsh businesses had seen their rates fall but was shouted down by the audience. Consequently he spent the majority of the hustings sat back in his seat, hands folded defensively, staring into space.
• Dylan Rees told the assembled entrepreneurs that it was incorrect to say that he has no business experience (he's obviously been reading the Druid). No, no, he said, as a Police Inspector he had to look after 40 officers, nine patrol cars, and deal with reams of paperwork - so it was just like running a company. The Druid begs to differ - there's a big difference between being a 'manager' and having the business acumen to develop products or services, find a market, take a financial risk, and make sales to meet a payroll. Its the business vision we need on Anglesey - not managerial experience of shuffling paperwork around for police cars.
• The Lib Dems' Matt Wood admitted that the Lib Dems were against nuclear power and Wylfa B. Apparently he had to as the moderator pointed out it was Lib Dem policy before asking him to speak. Strangely enough for a centre-left candidate he also apparently waffled on a lot about  Reaganomics.
• Apparently both Peter Rogers and the Conservative candidate, Anthony Ridge-Newman, talked with passion and were well received by the audience. Rogers was critical about IOACC's lack of a Local Development Plan (LDP) and the consequent "jobs which are locked-up in council filing cabinets". Ridge-Newman told the audience how a hung parliament would result in the scrapping of Wylfa B as this would be the price of the Lib Dems support in the event of a coalition government.

And the most astounding political revelation of the night?

Dylan Rees wears Sarkozy-style platform shoes...

         

Dylan Rees can't do basic arithmetic (yet has an economic recovery package for Ynys Môn)

        
With electoral pamphlets arriving from both Labour and Plaid Cymru this week, the Druid is spoilt for choice when it comes to fact checking the various claims being hurled at Anglesey voters (see my earlier post on Albert Owen's RAF Valley claims for instance).

Anyway, for Plaid Cymru the following claim on page 3 of Dylan Rees's 'Herald' pamphlet jumped out at me:

"Fair funding for Wales - Plaid will campaign for the implementation of the Holtham report which found that Wales is underfunded by £300 million a year (that's a loss of £2,900 per person on Anglesey!)"

Its true that Jerry Holtham calculated that Wales is relatively underfunded by £300 million pounds a year - but Dylan Rees's calculation that this represents a loss of £2,900 per person on Anglesey is complete nonsense.

According to the latest 2008 estimate, the population of Wales is 3,004,600. This means that the £300 million underfunding represents a loss of £99.85 for every person in Wales.

Even if the £300 million underfunding was only related to Anglesey - which is obviously absurd - then with a population of 69,000 people, the figure would be a loss of £4,347 per person on Anglesey, not the £2,900 claimed by Rees.

Conclusion: Dylan Rees can't add up. Yet on the front page of the Herald he boasts that he has an Economic Recovery Plan for Ynys Môn... 

...Frankly I wouldn't give up the day job, Dylan.
      

Plaid Cymru & Peter Rogers - the saga continues

            
As per the Druid's post of last night, today's Daily Post does indeed contain a plea from Plaid's Ynys Môn candidate, Dylan Rees, for the Public Services Ombudsman to complete his inquiry as soon as possible (not online for some reason):

"I believe the electorate of Ynys Môn have the right to know whether Peter Rogers has done anything wrong and I urge the ombudsman to complete his inquiries as soon as possible so that the findings can be released before the general election"

Peter Rogers also responds in the Daily Post (not online):

"It is appalling Plaid Cymru have asked for the investigation to be rushed because of the election. This has to follow its proper course with the Ombudsman. I have been elated about the response of my supporters to this, they have really rallied around me. They are equally appalled by Plaid's tactics. As a former policeman Mr Rees should know better than to comment on matters like this while they are still in progress"

It is widely thought that Peter Rogers won just enough support amongst Anglesey's farmers to deny Plaid Cymru a victory at the 2005 general election - thus allowing Labour's Albert Owen to win the seat with a majority of just over 1000 votes. The events of the last couple of days prove that Plaid Cymru are fearful that another strong showing from Peter Rogers may once again rob them of a victory in Ynys Môn. They are right to be worried: their candidate is widely thought, even amongst Plaid supporters, to be weak (his latest press release demanding that David Cameron apologises for leaving Anglesey off the infamous tea towel is a good example of his vacuousness).

Plaid Cymru have consistently tried to present themselves during this election as an honest local alternative to the "same old parties, same old politics" of the "London parties". In that case they would show the Ynys Môn electorate more respect if they tried to win this election with their policies and not by desperately trying to have another candidate disqualified.
    

Dylan Rees & Plaid Cymru fall out

  
As Gordon Brown heads to Buckingham Palace to ask permission to dissolve Parliament and start the election campaign, rumours reach the Druid that Dylan Rees and Plaid Cymru in Anglesey have had some kind of falling out. Details are sketchy but more news when I hear it...
    

BlogMenai, Hung Parliaments and Statistical Gobbledegook

  

Mandy Rice-Davies: "Well he would, wouldn't he?"

BlogMenai has taken issue with the Druid's recent post analysing Plaid Cymru's claims that in the event of a hung parliament they could hold real influence. In my post I relied on the polling data available on the non-partisan poll aggregating site electoralcalculus.com and concluded that, in the event of a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party but short of an absolute majority, there is very, very little likelihood that the Conservatives would ever need to rely on Plaid Cymru votes - thus contradicting Plaid's central argument to voters in the run up to the General Election. You can read it all here.

BlogMenai - an openly Plaid Cymru supporting blog - completely dismisses the Druid's conclusions ("well he would, wouldn't he?" as Mandy Rice-Davies might have said) and goes on to claim that I rely on statistical gobbledegook and that the case I made is false for the following reasons:

1. I have used polls selectively to support my point and ignored those which don't fit in with my preferred conclusion; and
2. that I have used outdated polls.

To prove his point, BlogMenai then lists the results of a number of polls (without any attribution) which show a much smaller gap between the Conservatives and Labour than an aggregate of the polls of the month ending March 4th on which my post relied (my post was made on March 9th). BlogMenai then goes on to state - again without any supporting evidence - that some of the polls he lists point to Labour being able to form a coalition government with the support of just SNP and Plaid Cymru alone without needing the Lib Dems at all.

My reply

BlogMenai is certainly right to say that the polls have tightened but I'm afraid the claim that I somehow 'cherry picked' only those polls which supported my argument is patently false. The Druid wrote the post on March 9th, in response to a letter by Dylan Rees in the Daily Post the previous day, and based it on the non-partisan polls aggregator electoralcalculus.com which on the day of writing was aggregating polls for the month ending March 4th (electoralcalculus.com is only updated once or twice a month). Now electoralcalculus.com aggregates ALL the polls over the stated period so BlogMenai's claim that I somehow maliciously chose only those polls which supported my argument is so obviously false to be laughable.

But its worse than that. Whilst accusing your humble Druid of only selecting polls which support his argument, BlogMenai then goes on to (a) disregard the results of Angus Reid polls because (he claims) they are "untested in the UK" and "give Labour a much, much lower share than other conventional pollsters" and (b) makes his unfounded conclusions on the basis on a selection of polls of his choosing - the very definition of selecting polls to suit one's argument. This is particularly ironic considering BlogMenai piously concludes his post by saying that although he may be biased towards Plaid Cymru he would never stoop so low as to use statistics selectively to make a point. Really? It doesn't look that way.

That said BlogMenai is right to say that the polls are tightening so lets crunch the numbers again using the latest aggregated numbers from electoralcalculus.com - those for the period February 5th to March 18th (although I'm sure our cherry-picking friend BlogMenai will complain once again that they aren't recent enough or that a selection of polls chosen by himself show an even smaller Conservative lead):

So with these more recent polls, electoralcaculus.com predicts exactly the same number of seats for Plaid and the SNP as previously:

Plaid Cymru - 5 seats
SNP - 7 seats

Therefore between them Plaid and SNP are still likely to control a block of just 12 seats. Labour, based on electoralcalculus.com's same calculations would win 262 seats - i.e. 64 seats short of an absolute majority. In this case Labour would need the support of the Lib Dems (53 seats) and both Plaid and SNP (12 seats) together just to get a majority of just one seat. Doesn't sound anything like BlogMenai's glib statement that Labour can form a coalition government with the support of just SNP and Plaid Cymru alone, does it? (Incidentally, BlogMenai also fails to explain how exactly Plaid Cymru and the SNP will be able to work together on reforming the Barnett Fomula when even Plaid's Dafydd Wigley has noted that they would be working at cross purposes and would need to hold separate negotiations with the Tories. You didn't mention that point in your critique of my post, did you, BlogMenai. Didn't it fit in with your argument perhaps?)

Anyway, returning to the figures for a moment: the Conservatives (302 seats) are still able to form a coalition with just the Lib Dems (53 seats) - giving them a comfortable majority of 29 seats (whether they call it a formal coalition or not). So still no need for Plaid's votes and still no extra influence for Plaid in Westminster.

The Druid's political allegiance

BlogMenai's criticisms don't stop there however. He goes on to say that the Druid must be a Tory because I only attack Labour and Plaid Cymru. I don't know how many times I have to write this but the Conservatives have not had any influence over Anglesey since 1997 -- 13 years ago. What's the point of attacking them? What I'm concerned with is the CURRENT state of Anglesey and those who bear political responsibility for it NOW. And, like it or not, the facts are:

• Ynys Môn has now been represented by Plaid Cymru's Ieuan Wyn Jones as either MP or AM for the past 23 years
• The UK has had a Labour government in Westminster since 1997 and Ynys Môn has had a Labour MP in the shape of Albert Owen since 2001
• The Welsh Assembly has been governed by Labour since 1999 until the emergence of a Labour/Plaid Cymru coalition in 2007

Therefore, BlogMenai, the truth is that Ynys Môn has been administered at some level by Labour and Plaid Cymru for almost quarter a century, yet you think that as an Anglesey resident I should somehow be directing my fire on the Conservatives for the Island's woes? Anglesey is now officially the poorest county in the UK - the very definition of political failure - and BlogMenai's partiality to Plaid Cymru is obviously blinding him to the conclusion that Ieuan Wyn Jones HAS FAILED the residents of Anglesey.

The Druid's Challenge to BlogMenai

Anyway, the polls will no doubt continue to change between now and the general election so I will continue to crunch the poll numbers once a month and if it ever gets to a point were statistically the polls point to Plaid Cymru having any real influence I will plainly write so here. Furthermore if following the election there emerges a Labour coalition with just Plaid Cymru and the SNP - as BlogMenai predicts - then I'll eat my 'wisg las'. If on the other hand such a coalition fails to materialise then I look forward to a full apology from BlogMenai. Okay?

Finally my message to BlogMenai readers is this: if you want to read about the world as Plaid Cymru would dearly like it to be - go ahead and read BlogMenai; if, however, you want to read about the world as it really is, read the Druid.

UPDATE (23 March): BlogMenai has now responded to this post and you can read his reply (in Welsh) here. My response is coming soon...
  

Hung parliament will kill Wylfa B (Updated)

Speaking at the Future of Utilities conference in London this week, the chief executive of RWE n.power,  Volker Beckers, has made it clear that in the event of a hung parliament Wylfa B will not be built. He is reported to have said:

"It could possibly make some investment inconceivable, for instance nuclear" … He said although the opposition Conservative Party supported the ruling Labour government's push to replace Britain's ageing nuclear fleet with new reactors, it was unclear what stance a new government, that might include the Liberal Democrat Party, would take on nuclear power.

The Lib Dems oppose plans to build more nuclear power stations, which they say "will soak up subsidy, centralise energy production and hinder development of Britain's vast renewable resources."

RWE n.power is one half of the Horizon Nuclear Power joint venture which is currently planning to develop the new reactor in Wylfa so Beckers' comments can be seen as a clear indication that Horizon's plans will not proceed in the event of a hung parliament.

It looks like Anglesey's economic future may be held to ransom by the Lib Dems - a party which polled less than 2,500 votes in Anglesey at the last general election; who's Anglesey Association strangely has an address in Cardiff; and selected a 26 year old ex-barman from St Asaph as their parliamentary candidate for the Island.

 
UPDATE: In this context it is also informative to note that Plaid Cymru are actively campaigning for a hung parliament - here is the Plaid candidate for Anglesey, Dylan Rees, in a recent letter to the Daily Post:

[T]his general election is very likely to produce a hung parliament. In that event Plaid Cymru will have an even more influential role to play as it seeks to win a fairer deal for the people of Wales.

He fails to mention that the most significant consequence of a hung parliament for Anglesey would be to kill off any hopes of Wylfa B.  Remember that when you are in the voting booth.
    

Will Plaid Cymru have any influence in a Hung Parliament? (Updated)

     
In a letter in yesterday's Daily Post, Plaid Cymru's PPC for Ynys Môn, Dylan Rees, rehearses Plaid's most critical message to the Welsh voters for the forthcoming election: that even though there is no chance of Plaid Cymru actually winning the general election, a vote for Plaid Cymru in the Westminster election - as opposed to the Assembly elections - will not be a wasted vote. This is how Dylan Rees makes the argument:

[T]his general election is very likely to produce a hung parliament. In that event Plaid Cymru will have an even more influential role to play as it seeks to win a fairer deal for the people of Wales.

Taken at face value this does indeed sound plausible. If either of the two large parties fail to win a majority in the election they will seek to form a coalition government with some of the smaller parties such as Plaid Cymru. These smaller parties will then give their support subject to the eventual coalition government agreeing to the smaller parties terms - in Plaid Cymru's case this is likely to include:

• an overhaul of the Barnett Formula to give Wales a more equitable settlement
• the raising of pensions by 30% for Welsh OAPs over the age of 80

As I said: it sounds plausible - but is it likely? Lets take a look at the numbers...

Electoral Calculus

Following the boundary changes the House of Commons will, after this general election, increase from 646 to 650 seats. Accordingly for any party to obtain an absolute majority they would need to win 326 seats. Using the electoralcalculus.co.uk's mathematical analysis of recent polls, this is the result which they predict:

click to enlarge

So, based on the polls for the month ending March 4th, they predict that the Conservatives will win 315 seats - just 11 short of a majority. How many seats are Plaid Cymru likely to win? Well, for the sake of consistency lets use the same electoralcalculus.co.uk's calculations which predict that Plaid Cymru will hold Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Dwyfor Meirionydd and gain Arfon (part of the existing Caernarfon constituency currently held by Plaid's Hywel Williams), Ceredigion and Ynys Môn. This will give Plaid Cymru 5 seats in Westminster. So its clear that under these current predictions Plaid Cymru's support alone will not provide enough seats for the Conservatives to reach a majority. Therefore both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru would also need the support of another party - for example the SNP.

There has been much talk of a 'power pact' between the SNP and Plaid Cymru in the event of a hung parliament. Politicalcalculus predicts that SNP will will have 7 MPs after the election, giving SNP and Plaid Cymru together a total of 12 seats which would give a potential Conservative-Plaid Cymru-SNP coalition government a one seat majority. But the reality is that such a coalition would not work because:

• The SNP's obvious demand for the complete independence of Scotland would be a price too high to pay for the Conservatives, who would simply prefer to go for a second general election
• According to Gerry Holtham, whereas the Barnett Formula under-funds Wales by about £300 million a year it over-funds Scotland by a whopping £4.2 billion a year. Any adjustment to give Wales a more equitable settlement would necessarily mean Scotland receiving less - and the SNP will never agree to that. Even Dafydd Wigley has acknowledged this stating in effect that they’d be working at cross purposes and should hold separate negotiations with the Tories
• Even with the probable support of the UUP and other Unionist Parties, the slim majority of a Conservatives-SNP-Plaid Cymru-Ulster Unionist coalition would quickly become unworkable in practice as each of the minority parties would effectively be able to hold the new government to ransom.

The only conclusion we can draw from the above is that even if it is mathematically possible for Plaid Cymru and the SNP to form a coalition government, the practicalities would make it unworkable. It is simply far more likely that the Conservatives would form a coalition with the Lib Dems, who with a predicted 50 seats, would give a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition a much more comfortable 39 seat majority. In such a case there would be no need for Plaid Cymru's support.

Conclusion

The above is just one scenario based on electoralcalculus.co.uk's current predictions. The only real chance for Plaid Cymru to wield any significant influence would be in the event that the Conservatives fall short of a majority by a very, very small margin - one seat for example - whereby Plaid Cymru's support alone would be sufficient to get a majority. What are the probabilities of that? Helpfully electoralcalculus.co.uk also provides the mathematical probabilities of a number of outcomes:

So the chances of there being either a Conservative or Labour majority or a Lib-Dem coalition with either of those two parties is effectively 99%. Accordingly, the mathematical chances of Plaid Cymru forming a coalition government with the Conservatives - and thus seeking a so-called 'fairer deal' for Wales - is less than one percent.

Accordingly, if you are an Ynys Môn voter, the only reason to vote for Dylan Rees is if you think that he will be a good constituency MP with the experience and ability to lead Anglesey's economic and social recovery (the Druid personally does not believe he is capable and has set out his reasons in detail here). If however you only vote Plaid Cymru in the hope that they will be able to wield influence in a hung parliament then you have a 99% probability of wasting your vote.

    
UPDATE: Plaid Leader Ieuan Wyn Jones has made clear that in the event of a Hung Parliament, Plaid has no intention of joining a formal coalition - rather, as the always well informed Dylan points out in comments, they would seek concessions from the Conservatives for their support in key votes. He cites the example of Plaid Cymru exacting compensation for Welsh quarrymen from the Callaghan government in 1979 as a historical precedent. Unfortunately this doesn't invalidate my argument as the probabilities of the Conservatives needing to rely on Plaid Cymru for any particular vote are still remote. The fact is that the only circumstance when the Conservatives would need to bargain with Plaid Cymru for their support would effectively be when their coalition with the Lib Dems had collapsed, anyway leading to new election. To prove this point, the below graphic shows that coalition governments (red line) in the UK tend not to last very long:

Furthermore, despite the tightening poll figures, the betting markets are still overwhelmingly predicting a Conservative majority. Therefore as I wrote above: if you are an Ynys Môn voter, unless you think that Dylan Rees would be a good constituency MP, any vote for Plaid Cymru will in all probability still be a wasted vote.
      

Glass Houses

  
EXHIBIT A

Plaid Cymru's PPC for Ynys Môn, Dylan Rees, in a letter to the Daily Post:

"They [Welsh voters] don’t want to be patronised with flashy advertising campaigns full of style but no substance."

EXHIBIT B


      

Quote of the Day

The Annointed One, Plaid Cymru's PPC for Ynys Môn Dylan Rees, speaks:

"Personally I never like boasting, saying we're going to win, but I think we have an excellent chance."

I wouldn't be so complacent, Dylan, especially after the latest poll results...
  

New Poll: Labour's Albert Owen to hold Ynys Môn in General Election?

I don't know - you go away for five minutes and YouGov publishes a new Wales-only voting intention poll...! Accordingly, for your benefit, the Druid has temporarily interrupted his short trip and crunched the regional numbers to find out what is happening in North Wales. So here is a graph showing the transition of support for the main parties in the North since the General Election in 2005 up to and including today's latest poll:

The big news is that Plaid's Support in the North has unexpectedly and dramatically nosedived 7 points since the last poll in mid-January, putting them on just 10% - even lower even than the Lib Dems. Of course the sample size in North Wales of around 250 people is quite small so there is room for error but, still, 7 points is a large drop. The Druid would guess that it may be due to Plaid Cymru's ridiculous pensions pledge being quite correctly seen as misleading fantasy politics - which as the Druid said at the time makes Plaid look like not a serious party.

The other news is that at the expense of Plaid Cymru both the Labour and Conservative vote is up. What does this mean for the General Election result in Ynys Môn? Using exactly the same formula which the Druid used for the last poll, the change on the 2005 General Election results are shown below (bottom row):

Of course the situation across the whole of North Wales is not homogenous, but these results are the best guide we have. Therefore, again assuming that Peter Rogers does not stand (although there is no evidence that this is the case) and his support swings behind the Conservatives, this is what the new polling data predicts for Ynys Môn:

The result: A Labour hold for Albert Owen with Plaid and the Conservatives fighting it out for second place with just a couple hundred votes between them. 

I'm going to be looking into all these latest YouGov figures in more detail as soon as I get back to Anglesey, but in the meantime it looks like 'squeaky bottom time' for Plaid's Dylan Rees who until recently was widely thought (by himself included) to be a shoo-in for the seat.

   

Dylan Rees: More Post Offices will solve Anglesey's economic problems

  

Dylan Rees: apparently making a difference

Dylan Rees, the Plaid Cymru candidate for Ynys Môn, spoke at Plaid Cymru's Conference last week and this is the section of his speech which he was so proud of that he extracted it and put it on his website:

“One message that we have to send to the London parties loud and clear is that they should never ignore the voices of the people. In my area, we’ve had a Labour MP who voted to close our Post Offices. Instead of investing in our community facilities, they have stripped them down – showing a lack of ambition and lack of understanding of the way we live. The last thing any community throughout Wales needs now is another London party MP who will simply go there and do as they’re told.”

So despite the closure of companies like Anglesey Aluminium, Eaton Electric, Peboc Eastman, Octel, and the downsizing at Vion causing thousands of job losses plus the decimation of agriculture on the island, the worse thing Dylan Rees can find to say about Anglesey's Labour MP is that he voted to close Post Offices. This may come as no surprise to regular readers who will know that Dylan has a bit of a hard-on for Post Offices, as you can see here, here, here and here and so on ad nauseum. Frankly its beginning to look like Dylan focuses on Post Office closures because, as a man who has been paid from the public purse all his life, Post Offices are as much about business as he understands.

Of course the alternative reason for Rees's fetishisation of Post Offices to the exclusion of all other problems on the island would be because to highlight them would be extremely damaging to Plaid Cymru leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones - who happens to have been the Member of Parliament for Anglesey from 1987-2001 and also Assembly Member for Anglesey since 1999.

To paraphrase Dylan Rees: the last thing Anglesey needs now is a Plaid MP who (a) has no business experience; and (b) is unable to discuss the island's real problems because it will make his Boss look bad.

Anglesey special feature on the BBC Politics Show

  

With Ynys Môn within reach at the general election for Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives, it was singled out for a special feature on the weekly BBC 'Politics Show' on Sunday with correspondent Max Cotton despatched to explain what makes Anglesey just so different from the rest of the country. You can watch it here on iPlayer (beware BBC programmes expire after just seven days).

Cotton concludes that the defining characteristics of Anglesey residents is that they are "very, very welsh", are not NIMBY-ish, and they like nuclear power and low flying jets. Max also interviewed each of the four main candidates and here are the highlights (interjected with the Druid's comments):

ALBERT OWEN (Labour) 

Max Cotton: I think everyone I've spoken to here has said that jobs and regeneration are the two huge issues. We've had a Labour government for 13 years, is it your fault? Is it Tony Blair's fault that Anglesey is suffering?

Albert Owen: No, I came into politics in the 80s when it was a damn sight worse than it is now, we have to be honest about that. There was mass unemployment and mass depopulation in the 80s and 90s. Its certainly a lot better now.

The Druid: A lot better now? Are you serious, Albert? Was it really worse in the 80s? I don't think so - and here's why:

• Anglesey Aluminium started smelting in 1971 and continued production all the way through the 80s and 90s, only closing with a loss of 400 jobs in September 2009
• The Wylfa Nuclear Powerstation was also commissioned in 1971, carried on through the 80s and 90s and is now only months away from being decommissioned
• The Octel chemical plant in Amlwch began production in 1953 and continued through the 80s and 90s (under various different names) until it closed in 2005
• The Eaton Electric plant in Holyhead opened in 1960 under the name Midland Electric Manufacturing Company, it operated all through the 80s and 90s and only closed in December 2009 with a loss of 250 jobs
• The Peboc Eastman chemical plant in Llangefni was established in 1970, continued production all through the 80s and 90s, and only closed its doors in 2008 with a loss of 100 jobs
• Anglesey is an island of farmers, yet the economic contribution of agriculture in North Wales (including Anglesey) has declined by a staggering 67 per cent during the period 1997-2007, compared to an overall UK decline of just 7 per cent. You only need to compare a visit to the Morgan Evans livestock auctions in the 80s or 90s with one now to see how things have declined
• This decimation of agriculture on Anglesey has directly affected the abattoir and meat-packaging plant in Gaerwen (now called Welsh Country Foods and part of the Vion Group) which began operating back in 1980s and continued throughout that decade and the 1990s; it has only begun downsizing this year with a loss of 200 jobs; the chicken processing plant in Llangefni, commonly known as 'Chuckies' and owned by the same company was established even earlier and also continued production throughout the 80s and 90s, until it lost a whole shift (140 jobs) last year 
• Throughout the 80s and the 90s, the High Street of Anglesey's main market town, Llangefni, was bustling and enjoyed a vibrant street market on Thursdays. Back then there was hardly a single closed shop, yet now at least half of the storefronts are closed or converted to charity shops and the Thursday market is a shadow of itself (see here). Furthermore, Bangor may not be on the island but Anglesey residents have long travelled over the bridge to shop there - now Bangor High Street, also bustling with activity in the 80s and 90s, is rapidly resembling a ghost town (as the Druid has discussed here)

Please note: I'm not saying that everything was tickety-boo on Anglesey in  the 80s and 90s - but to say things were worse then than they are now, as Albert Owen is trying to do, is demonstrably false. All of the above large-scale businesses weathered the 80s and 90s and are only closing now, with a loss of thousands of jobs.

Anyway, I digress. Back to the interview:

Max Cotton: But you've been losing jobs and employers, haven't you?

Albert Owen: We've been losing a couple of employers in the last year as has everywhere, this global crisis has hit Anglesey hard, no ifs or buts about it, but we've got to take the brave decisions.

A couple of employers??! Albert Owen must either think that Anglesey residents don't watch the Politics Show or thinks we are all idiots.

PETER ROGERS (Independent)

The good news is that Peter Rogers is out of hospital following his heart op and recovering; the bad news is that he looks visibly frail.

Max Cotton: Nobody's rung you to say 'please don't do this, Peter'?
Peter Rogers: They are too ashamed of what they have done to me, too ashamed of the success I've had since I left the Conservatives.
MC: And its not resentment, its not bitterness on your part?
PR: Not at all, I think its wrong of you to challenge me on that...
MC: ...no, no, I'm just trying to find out what your motivations are in the nicest possible way...
PR: ...Yeah, yeah. I'm taking votes from all the Partys; I've got a lot of people who are nationalists who see me as a Sensible Nationalist. We need someone to lead, to change the image of Ynys Mon, and I believe that Peter Rogers can change that image.

So, it looks like health problems notwithstanding, Peter Rogers will be standing again at the general election...

DYLAN REES (Plaid Cymru)

Max Cotton interviewed Dylan Rees standing outside RAF Valley, ostensibly to make the point that Plaid Cymru have links with CND and are against having UK military bases on Welsh soil.

Dylan Rees: We are a broad church party. What really unites us is our passion, our vision. I have excellent links and ties with the personnel of RAF Valley and I think they do a wonderful job.
Max Cotton: Plaid Cymru doesn't like nuclear power though, do they?
Dylan Rees: Plaid Cymru, if it had a choice, would  not want to see nuclear power, but how can I as a representative, or any political representative here on Anglesey, in the dire economic situation we find outselves in turn down the possibility of 5000 construction jobs and 800 to 1000 permanent well paid jobs?

Once you've gotten over the shock that Dylan didn't mention Post Offices once, what he basically said is: "our principles are against nuclear power and military bases, but we will ignore our principles just to get elected".

ANTHONY RIDGE-NEWMAN (Conservative)

We didn't see much of Anthony Ridge-Newman, but this is what he had to say:

Ridge-Newman: I come from an entrepreneurial background, my father is an entrepreneur, and I've had experience in business in the City in London and throughout the UK; I travelled around as a corporate presenter and I've done lots of things around the country in terms of business and economics and I want to bring that experience across the bridge into Anglesey; I want to get people working, I want to get people with creative ideas building businesses becoming entrepreneurs themselves and thats what the Conservatives are best at, and I think thats my strength.

The BBC didn't interview the ex-Barman from St Asaph, or maybe they did and just didn't show us that part. Anyway, no great loss.

All interesting stuff and the Druid particularly enjoyed the haunting Celtic music and references to his fellow Druids of yore - although Max Cotton made the common mistake of confusing the Bryn Celli Ddu burial mound with Druidism. Tut tut, one expects better than tired cliches from our National Broadcaster. Which brings me on to Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychgwyndrobwyllllantysiliogogogoch. Is it really obligatory to have references to it in every single programme about Anglesey?

Plaid Cymru get themselves into a Biomess

     

Schematic diagram showing how the Bodffordd Biodigester works

As per yesterdays' post Peter Rogers hospitalisation has potentially put the general election result within reach of all three main parties. In the electoral simulations the Druid made based on the January YouGov Wales poll, Labour and Plaid have less than 100 votes between them with the Conservatives trailing just 1000 votes behind. And in a scenario where every single vote counts it looks like Plaid Cymru have made a massive miscalculation in Bodffordd which has the potential to cost them the election.

Anglesey residents will probably be aware that trouble has been brewing in Bodffordd for some time about plans to site a 25,000 tonne Biodigester in nearby Mona Industrial Park. A biodigester basically creates electricity from organic waste such as out-of-date food or meat by-products through allowing bacteria to digest it in an oxygen-free environment thus producing methane-rich biogas which is then converted to heat or electricity. As you might imagine it is a pretty smelly process and residents of Bodffordd are concerned that they could be stunk out of their own homes when the prevailing wind is blowing. Two public meetings were held to discuss ways of stopping the plant and the community council also objected to its building. In the end however Anglesey County Council approved the project on December 14th despite receiving a petition against with 479 signatures from residents.

So what has all this got to do with Plaid Cymru? Well, the County Councillor for Bodffordd is Plaid Cymru's William Hughes and it appears that he managed to alienate his residents by failing to turn up for any of the public meetings about the biodigester. Furthermore, to add insult to injury, it turns out that now that the plant has been approved both Cllr William Hughes and Plaid PPC Dylan Rees have suddenly made overtures to help Bodffordd. Too little, too late say residents.

At the last council elections there were 793 electors in the Bodffordd ward and we know that 479 people signed the petition - its probably fair to assume that a majority of these voted Plaid Cymru in the council elections but now won't be doing so in the General Election. And as there could potentially only be 100 votes between Labour and Plaid, has the Bodffordd Biodigester lost the election for Plaid Cymru?

As a side note, the campaign against the biodigester has been lead by former County Councillor John Arthur Jones. He lost his Cyngar (Llangefni) seat by 200 votes to Plaid Cymru in 2008 - no doubt he will be standing in Bodffordd against William Hughes at the next council elections. 

Herald of Doom

The Druid returned to his Druidic Residence yesterday to find this lying on his Druidic Doormat:

At first he thought it was a new free-paper but on closer inspection it turned out to be a mailer from Plaid Cymru complete with endless photos of Plaid's Ynys Mon candidate, Dylan Rees, standing in front of things. The Druid's favourite is this one of Dylan on the riverside terrace of the House of Commons:

Perhaps he was picking out his spot for after the election? After all the bookies already think his victory is a foregone conclusion. 

However, the Druid personally thinks that Rees is entirely unsuitable for the role. Anglesey has lost three thousand jobs in a very short period of time, the future of Wylfa B is uncertain, council tax is planned to rise 15% over three years, agriculture on the island has been decimated, inflation is about to let rip - Ynys Mon really is staring at economic catastrophe. 

What the Island needs now is jobs - lots and lots of jobs - and somebody with the experience and vision to help create them. Yet the depressing fact is that the odds-on favourite to win the seat is Dylan Rees - a man who has spent his entire career working in the public sector as first a Policeman and later as a Homelessness Officer for Anglesey County Council. Every single pay cheque he has ever received has come courtesy of you - the taxpayer. He has never started a new business, he has never employed anyone, he has no knowledge whatsoever about how business works.

On his flyer Rees says that "New jobs the top priority" and pledges "to make job creation his number one priority". Tellingly however we have to wait until page 4 (i.e. the last page) to learn about this 'top priority' and only after endless nonsense about how he wants Anglesey to be the first zero-carbon zone in Wales and how he attended the "wave protest" in London (calling for, amongst other things, £150bn a year to be given to poor countries to help them cope with climate change. Who's paying for that?). And this is not the first time he has got his priorities wrong.

Is this really the man to rebuild our Island?

Note: I'm not saying that the others are any better (Albert Owen is a sailor who later worked in the Citizens Advice Bureau and the Druid is not even sure what Anthony Ridge-Newman does) but I am particularly highlighting Rees's background as he is the front runner and Ynys Mon is in danger of sleep walking into electing him without any real scrutiny of his complete lack of business experience - and right now Ynys Mon needs business experience.
   

Crime and (lack of) Punishment in North Wales

   

Statistics released by the Ministry of Justice show that of 4,059 criminals sentenced last year for indictable offences (i.e. murder, manslaughter, rape, kidnapping, grand theft, robbery, burglary, arson, conspiracy, fraud and other major crimes) in North Wales - only 603 were sentenced to prison. Thats less than 15%!

Apparently of the remainder, 842 received fines, 344 were given suspended jail terms, and 1,371 were given community sentences, with the rest given conditional discharges or passed over to mental health authorities.

Of course in the Druid's time crime was dealt with far more efficiently: we sacrificed the blighters! However, even back then, that was going a little too far which lead to the Emperor Tiberius outlawing Druidism - the only national religion to be so proscribed by what was a religiously tolerant Roman Empire.

Crime in Anglesey

So lets take a look at crime in Anglesey in 2009 beginning with the incidence of all crimes, and then the figures for burglary, robbery, vehicle crimes, violence, and anti-social behaviour (note: these graphs show the number of crimes per 1000 people):

Two things are immediately apparent from these charts:

• Most of Anglesey's criminals go on holiday in September; and 
• the two largest categories of crime in Anglesey are overwhelmingly the last two: violence and anti-social behaviour. 

The Druid is not an expert, but I would suspect that when only 15% of offenders of serious crimes are given prison sentences this sends out a message to society that you can pretty much do as you want - because you have to be REALLY REALLY bad to get anything more than a slap on the wrist. No wonder there is so much casual violence and anti-social behaviour.

It is easy to shrug this off and complain that the Courts aren't doing their job - but we have known for a long time that North Wales Police are more interested in catching speeding motorists than drunken yobs. During a recent nigh-time excursion to the Druid's nearest market town on a Friday evening, he observed not a single Police officer anywhere at chucking-out time. It is also informative that ex-North-Wales-Policeman, Plaid Cymru candidate for Ynys Mon Dylan Rees is actually calling for even less criminals to be sentenced to prison. With the figure currently standing at just 15% what figure do you have in mind, Dylan? 10%? 5%? 0%? Do let us know...

All the Druid can say is: perhaps it is time for elected Police Commissioners - its surely right that the priorities of the local Police are set by the local communities they serve rather than faceless bureaucrats in Whitehall.

Until that happens you can make do by balancing your bobby.