The questions Wales This Week should have asked.

Last night's ITV 'Wales This Week' investigation into Wales's highest paid public servant, David Bowles, and the 'recovery' process at Anglesey County Council promised so much, but ultimately delivered so little.

Noting the abundant debate about the programme below this thread, my only comments are the following:

• David Bowles was wrong to refuse to be interviewed. Together with Clive McGregor and Elan Closs Stephens, Bowles is one of the most important architects of the recovery process and should have no problem with defending his role in front of a camera. The programme was not a hatchet job -- in fact it made it abundantly clear that Bowles has in the past been very courageous in both routing out corruption at Lincolnshire and standing up to Labour's NHS targets. However as the vox pops in Llangefni High Street highlighted: normal residents are aghast at the salary he is paid -- and rightly so when you consider he earns roughly 2.5x the average weekly wage on Anglesey in a day. Rightly or wrongly the sheer size of his salary has made him a target for opponents and it is only right that he should have appeared and put our minds at rest that it is money well spent.
• Also, rather than focussing excessively on David Bowles' ill advised and brief stay in Parc Cefni, I would have been more interested in learning about the circumstances leading to Bowles' appointment as the highest paid civil servant in the land. Was the position advertised? How many other persons were considered for the role? How was the salary level (which is paid by Anglesey ratepayers) arrived at? If no other persons were interviewed -- and there was therefore no competitive tender -- how on earth can the highest public sector salary in Wales be justified? And, similarly, is it really wise to pay a civil servant £1000 a day, in a place where the average weekly wage is just £396 (2007 data)? These would have been more relevant questions for the programme makers to deal with.
• Another issue regarding the recovery process which would have benefitted from a more in depth discussion, is the question of whether attempting to draw a line in the sand over past problems is paying dividends. It is clear that there is still a significant number of Councillors who are unhappy with the process -- pretty much guaranteeing that normal service will be resumed just as soon as David Bowles and the recovery board head off into the sunset. Accordingly it would have been interesting to have had a discussion of alternative routes to the 'recovery'. A South African style 'Truth and Reconciliation' style tribunal is probably going too far, but I have a feeling that a full and open internal investigation into some contentious issues from the past would prove a very cathartic experience for the council. 

Ultimately we should concern ourselves with what works -- and I'm not fully convinced that the current recovery process has the support of enough councillors to ensure that it will be robust. From this point of view my advice to Bowles, McGregor and Closs Stephens is this: in order to give the recovery the best possible chance of survival, appoint a new, permanent MD to work alongside Bowles as soon as possible. In order to boost morale among staff, choose someone from within the council who is acceptable to all parties (not as hard a task as some might imagine). Pay that person no more than the average wage of a council chief executive in Wales. And most importantly: recognise that the biggest challenge facing Anglesey is not just restoring confidence in the council, but helping rebuild the Island's shattered economy --  for that reason choose somebody with some creativity, imagination, and a helluva lot of business nous.

Tonight's Required Viewing

Unlike Cllr John Chorlton who told the Holyhead and Anglesey Mail that "I'm not going to stay in specifically to watch [it], I'll probably record it and watch it later" I hope you will all be tuning in to tonight's ITV investigation into the 'recovery' process at Anglesey County Council:

From ITV Wales: 7:30pm - 8pm TONIGHT (Thursday):

The Anglesey Challenge

"Jonathan Hill goes behind the headlines with in-depth analysis of the week's major issues. He looks at the challenge facing one of Wales' highest-paid servants, the trouble shooter sent in to run crisis-hit Anglesey County Council." (subtitled) 

Expect all manner of turmoil from tomorrow onwards.

The very strange priorities of Albert Owen

Last week Albert Owen thought it would be a good idea to write in to the Daily Post saying that the Office for National Statistics has got it wrong and, contrary to what the official figures say, Anglesey isn't the poorest place in the country after all. Indeed, thanks to some special data which only Albert is privy to, Ynys Môn is apparently more likely to be the second, or maybe even the third poorest place in the country. I can only imagine that he thinks that telling us we are 'only' the 'second poorest place' in the whole UK instead of 'the poorest', is somehow a vindication of the last 13 years of Labour rule.

Anyway, no doubt hyped-up by last week's success, Albert had another letter published in the Daily Post yesterday -- and this time he decided to tackle the really big issue which everyone on the Island has been talking about. Yes, that's right, he decided to write about how the Tory government of the 1990s used European structural funds. This it seems is far more important than anything that is actually happening on the Island today, and apparently the events of twenty years ago also somehow negate any criticism of the WAG's Economic Renewal Programme made by Prof. Dylan Jones-Evans, the economic advisor to the Welsh Conservatives. No, I couldn't follow Albert's logic either.

Anyway, seeing how Albert brought it up and often likes to tell us how much worse the 80s and 90s were for Anglesey, this is what I remember:

• Anglesey Aluminium started smelting in 1971 and continued production all the way through the 80s and 90s, only closing with a loss of 450 jobs in September 2009
• The Octel chemical plant in Amlwch began production in 1953 and continued through the 80s and 90s (under various different names) until it closed in 2005
• The Eaton Electric plant in Holyhead opened in 1960 under the name Midland Electric Manufacturing Company, it operated all through the 80s and 90s and only closed in December 2009 with a loss of 250 jobs
• The Peboc Eastman chemical plant in Llangefni was established in 1970, continued production all through the 80s and 90s, and only closed its doors in 2008 with a loss of 100 jobs
• Anglesey is an island of farmers, yet the economic contribution of agriculture in North Wales (including Anglesey) has declined by a staggering 67 per cent during the period 1997-2007, compared to an overall UK decline of just 7 per cent. You only need to compare a visit to the Morgan Evans livestock auctions in the 80s or 90s with one now to see how things have declined
• This decimation of agriculture on Anglesey has directly affected the abattoir and meat-packaging plant in Gaerwen (now called Welsh Country Foods and part of the Vion Group) which began operating back in 1980s and continued throughout that decade and the 1990s; it has only begun downsizing this year with a loss of 200 jobs; the chicken processing plant in Llangefni, commonly known as 'Chuckies' and owned by the same company was established even earlier and also continued production throughout the 80s and 90s, until it lost a whole shift (140 jobs) last year. 

I'm not denying that the 1980s and 90s were hard times, but contrary to Albert's constant diversionary tactics, all of Anglesey's prime businesses survived that era intact, only to be forced to close or downsize over the past couple of years.

Anyway, I can't wait to see what Albert is going to write about next week...

Anglesey's Libraries: a Council Success Story

Anglesey County Council is so often on the receiving end of quite severe criticism that we may sometimes forget that, despite the shenanigans in the council chamber, the council does perform many services very well, and some excellently. A good example is the library service on Anglesey. Fellow island blogger, Photon, writes this about the latest Welsh Assembly assessment of Anglesey's libraries:

Anglesey is amongst the top performers in Welsh libraries, passing 12 of a possible 14 standards in 2009-10 and has achieved this despite having the lowest numbers of staff of any local authority.  In the words of Cymal, the Welsh Assembly's Library Standards authority:

"With such meagre staffing resources it is difficult to see how many more service improvements can be achieved. Indeed it is possible that current levels of performance overall are only being achieved on account of the dedication and commitment of the staff rather than as a result of the authority’s support and investment."

In other words, the staff are pulling-off Herculean improvements in the library service on Anglesey, whilst the Council itself shows little interest in it. 

Anglesey's libraries have this year been awarded 12 out of a possible 14 target passes for its levels of service - up from the average Welsh pass rate of 7 targets last year, and well ahead of the Welsh national average of just 9 targets met.  In the words of the Welsh Assembly: 

"This is progress at an accelerated rate and reflects well on the effectiveness of the service in applying careful and considered approaches to the requirements of the Standards."

Read the whole thing here.

When you consider the excellent service provided by Anglesey's libraries, and the fact that it all costs yearly less than one percent of the council's entire budget, I hope that the council executive will recognise its value to the island and spare it from unnecessary cuts.

Rhosneigr by-election update

Back in September when ex-Leader Phil Fowlie stood down and a by-election was called in the Rhosneigr ward, in line with the People's Manifesto I made the following requests of any candidates:

• To state in advance which political grouping they intend to join if elected; and 
• To publish a personal manifesto of their aims and values

To this end I am delighted to have received the following mail from one of the candidates:

"Dear Druid,

My name is Martin Peet. I am Standing as the Welsh Conservatives Candidate for Rhosneigr. I have lived in the area for over 10 years and know it well. I am also the Deputy Chairman Political of the Anglesey Conservative Association and was Agent for Anthony Ridge-Newman. My day job is in major construction; I am 35, a hard working family man and am standing for council because they need new blood with professionalism and someone who can see the bigger picture.

I am very impressed by the blog that you have created and the political stimulus it has created amongst the population of our island. David Cameron and the Conservatives have a vision for our nation and that is one of the "Big Society" - People coming together and getting things moving without the aid of a super state. It seems that the seed of the Big Society has been planted and nurtured here with the publication of the People’s Manifesto. Congratulations.

Rhosneigr, as you may know was served by former leader Phil Fowlie, and contrary to the reports against him, he served the ward well and was highly respected as the Councillor for Rhosneigr. I wish him well in his recovery from surgery.

Mini manifesto for Rhosneigr: If elected:

Stop the closure of the Library.

Libraries, like the swimming pools and schools are essential for the islands future -closing services used by children, adults and the elderly alike is pure madness.  Savings aren't made by hacking out swathes from the infrastructure of the island, they are made my making the existing services more efficient, sharing resources where possible, making the services more "lean".  Anglesey also benefits from the “Libraries for Life” grant scheme, so closing libraries on the island could probably jeopardise this funding source.

Develop a parking strategy for Rhosneigr, to ease the problems during summer periods.

We could just build a new car park near the common, but that is a short term solution.  The root to the issue is deeper.  New developments need to provide for adequate parking (including boats).  Any new parking facilities should be Free.  Car parks need to be strategically positioned to utilise both beaches in Rhosneigr.

Control Housing and Holiday Home development.

There have been plenty of new developments for the holiday market, some remaining unsold, yet we have a housing need for our young families in Rhosneigr, and the surrounding areas.  New developments must consider a percentage as affordable housing.  If this is not reasonable they must contribute to the community by other means.  If developers want to capitalise on the beaches and sea views, they must give as well as take.

Accountability and Approachability

I have always been told on the door step that you only see politicians when they want your vote.  I will be available every week at a ward surgery.  I will post my contact details in shops, post office and the library.  I will create an email mailing list and feedback on progress within the council, for the ward, and as a whole.

Community Action

I will engage the community in voluntary action projects, whether it’s tidying the beaches, trimming hedgerows, or organising fun days and street parties, Rhosneigr will be an example of how communities can pull together and be proud of what they put in.  This has started already with the likes of Project Rhosneigr, and nearby Llanfaelog Community Garden.

Listen and Learn

The primary responsibility of any councillor is to serve.  I will listen, converse and formulate ideas with the people I’d serve.

Island Wide

I would be a strong voice for Anglesey.

With support from my Conservative AM colleagues in Cardiff I can make sure that we are heard in Cardiff.  Money from Europe, destined for Wales does not seem to travel that far up the A470!  There will be a new round of EU funding in 2013 and we need a strong case for support on Anglesey.  I can lead that case.

If you would like to contact me directly:

Email me:    mp.ynysmon@gmail.com

Regards

Martin Peet

Rhosneigr Council Candidate for the Welsh Conservatives"

I understand that in addition to Mr Peet, one other person has also put himself forward as a candidate. If that person would like to contact me I will be equally happy to print his pitch to Rhosneigr residents here.

Does anyone know if a hustings has been arranged?

Crowded house: the Welsh economy

The Welsh Economy

The Economist this week reports on two very interesting academic studies on the effects of increased government spending which could have a profound impact on our understanding of the Welsh economy.

The first study, by Harvard Business School academics, investigates whether higher government spending can "crowd out" private consumption and investment -- i.e. the phenomenon were government uses up financial and other resources (including personnel) that would otherwise be used by private enterprise. As an 'economy' is basically an aggregate of the actions of literally hundreds of millions of different people and organisations making diverse informed decisions on how to spend their money, the biggest problem faced by economists is to isolate just the factors they want to study -- in this case what influence increased government spending has on the private sector -- however the Harvard Business School academics hit on a very ingenious solution:

"When American politicians become chairmen of congressional committees, they are able to direct federal spending to their home states. To take one example, Richard Shelby, a Republican from Alabama, became chairman of the Senate intelligence committee in 1997. Before that Alabama averaged $6m less in annual federal earmarks, or specific funding, than other states. After his appointment the state received $90m more than the average.

Chairmanships are based on seniority. They require another senator or congressman to lose their seat. Appointments have little relationship with economic activity in the state concerned, and extra spending will occur at all stages of the [business] cycle. It is a truly independent variable.

The academics examined 232 appointments across 42 years. They found the average state receives a 40-50% boost in earmarks in the year following a chairman’s appointment, an increase that persisted for the rest of his tenure. Private firms reacted by reducing capital expenditure (by 8-15%) and research and development (by 7-12%); employment and sales growth also suffered. This test appears fairly robust, as it covered a wide variety of states and was also reversed when the chairman stood down."

Furthermore the second study highlighted by The Economist and conducted by academics associated with the OECD discovered through statistical analysis of a panel of 145 countries between 1960 to 2007, that a 1% rise in government consumption as a share of GDP eventually reduced private-sector consumption by 1.9%.

If these findings are correct, what does this tell us about the Welsh economy were public spending as a share of GDP has, according to the latest figures, reached 69.1% -- second only in its reliance on the public sector to Northern Ireland?

Public spending as a share of GDP (source: CEBR)

I have previously written how, despite the Welsh Assembly spending more per capita than any other UK region on economic development, Wales still remains at or near the bottom of most indicators of economic health such as GVA, unemployment and business failures. The Institute of Welsh Affairs, which commissioned the research (and which counts the sainted Gerry Holtham on its management board), opined that the causes for this underperformance were general cack-handedness and a lack of accountability and transparency. However, bearing in mind the results of the above studies, is it not more likely that the growth of the Welsh private sector is in fact being artificially stunted due to the crowding-out effects of an overlarge public sector? It surely cannot be healthy for Wales that the government spends £7 out of every £10 spent in this country.

Furthermore, in the past both Rhodri Morgan and Ieuan Wyn Jones have given speeches saying that the problem is not that the Welsh public sector is too large, but that the private sector is too small. But surely this is putting the cart before the horse -- under normal circumstances a country can only afford a public sector which can be sustainably paid for by its private sector. If the findings of the above studies are correct then they will have profound implications on our understanding of why the Welsh private sector is so stunted.

(Finally, before I am accused of hypocrisy for having called for Welsh Assembly support for the port of Holyhead just days ago, please note there is a big difference between targeted and limited government support and a structurally over-large public sector.)

Hanes Môn: Anglesey's Ghengis Khan?

A 2003 study discovered through DNA analysis that as many as 8 percent of the male inhabitants of Asia are probable descendants of Genghis Khan, the Mongol warrior emperor, leader of the Golden Horde, and founder of an Empire that stretched from Central Asia all the way to gates of Vienna. However due to his even more considerable conquests with the opposite sex, it is estimated that Ghengis Khan has roughly 16 million male descendants -- i.e. half of one percent of the entire male population of the world.

What has this got to do with Ynys Môn? Well, take a look at this inscription from a tombstone at Eglwys Tregaian, near Capel Coch:

William Ap Howel may not have conquered half of Eurasia, but I wonder how many of us Islanders are descendants of this clearly extraordinary man?

(Hat tip: Photonic Anglesey)