Friday, 7 May 2010

Albert Owen holds Ynys Môn

The sixty year old tradition of Anglesey voters not ejecting a sitting MP remains unbroken. Albert Owen has held the seat with Plaid Cymru's Dylan Rees coming second, and the Conservatives's Ridge-Newman third. Here are the results:

click to enlarge

I would suggest this is a disaster for Plaid Cymru who have actually lost over 2,000 votes (-16%) since the 2005 general election. Ieuan Wyn Jones may well follow Peter Robinson's lead in next year's Assembly election.

Labour's Albert Owen also lost votes, 700 of them - which, interesting, is exactly the number of jobs lost at the two Holyhead-based companies of Anglesey Aluminium (450 jobs) and Eaton Electric (250 jobs). However, in the end, it looks like Holyhead has come out for him.

The big winners were the Conservatives who have doubled their vote, gaining almost 4000 votes since 2005 - a testament to the campaign fought by Anthony Ridge-Newman.

More analysis tomorrow...


The Rock said...

Terrific performance by Anthony Ridge-Newman to so substantially improve the Conservative share of the vote in such a short time scale as the candidate. Makes one wonder just how much closer it might have been had Peter Rogers not stood. Wonder if we might have to go through this all again in a few months.

Anonymous said...

Hey Druid; Tory Boy. You just don't have your finger on the pulse in Ynys Mon do you?

Wishing Albert Owen to fail doesn't mean it will happen.

IWJ to lose the seat in the Assembly.

Anonymous said...

"You just don't have your finger on the pulse in Ynys Mon do you?"

Given that anything up to half the people themselves didn't know their own mind until they found they'd put a cross somewhere on the paper, it would be silly to say anyone at all could predict the precise outcome. Quite why anyone would re-elect Albert Owen, when he won't even be in the ruling party from now on, is an Anglesey-esque mystery.

Research Scientist said...

Another disaster for Ynys Mon! I fear it's basically the people of Holyhead that let him slip back in, and failure by Plaid or Tories to select an appropriate local candidate. Albert Owen is a perfectly amenable chap in person, but nothing can hide his record of failure. Looking at the wider Wales picture, thank god the tories wiped that smile of Lembit Opik's face, although their performance was not really stellar - if Wales were replicating England they should have picked up even more seats - Big constitutional problem coming up now - England has a clear tory majority, labour being propped up mainly in Wales and Scotland! Interesting election in Ulster.

Precision Pete said...

No need for Albert Owen or supporters to be too cocky about this result, which just reflects the fact that Holyhead is the biggest town on the island.
Add the votes of Rogers, UKIP and CPW to the Tory and you have a tie. They wouldn't all have gone to the Conservative of course, but the result could have been different had we not been saddled with 3 no hopers

Anonymous said...

Rogers' vote comes from the area near his council seat - Dwyran, Brynsiencyn, Llangaffo etc. This has been a good Plaid area in pre-Rogers times. So a good proportion of the vote would go to PC.

Albert's vote held up really well. Ineffective he may be, but he's likeable and a good guy. Not surprising that he's won.

As for IWJ to loose his seat next year - don't think so. People vote differently in Assembly election compared to Westminster. And Plaid will not be squeezed out in debates as happened this time. Also, just as Anglesey remained loyal to Albert as sitting member, the same thing will happen to IWJ.

falling over laughing said...

What a blog getting more funny by the day, conservatives did well did they ? - gaining back those who voted before for Mr Rogers. For those hoping for a conservative win on the island, you have history to contend with (and Keith Best, we still remember him don't forget!) and a simple question if Mr Rogers cannot win for the right who can?

The Druid of Anglesey said...

Falling over

"day, conservatives did well did they ? - gaining back those who voted before for Mr Rogers"

Actually it would appear that the Conservative candidate has picked up votes equally from both Peter Rogers and Plaid Cymru. Both are down 2000 votes whilst Ridge-Newman is up 4000 votes.

Anonymous said...

Didn't vote for him but fair play, the Conservative candidate ARN did really well, and certainly the best campaign. Bearing in mind he was parachuted in just months ago and not being a local lad- he did well.

Don't know how Albert has stayed in- his campaign was non existent. And I think he's fairly useless.

Though IMHO Plaid came second in terms of the campaign (to the Conservatives) on Anglesey. I think it serves them well for selecting a, erm "different" candidate.

As for the re-election of AO I just shows how unwilling the people of Anglesey are for change... what hope has the Council got to get rid of the rogues!?!

As for IWJ out in the next Assembly Election, I don't think so. People vote differently in those, and he's popular. And in fairness I think he's a top bloke though should stick to be Ynys Mon AM and not be DFM or Party Leader- he can't cope!

falling over laughing said...

Wow think if we had a PR voting system things may have been different - sorry forgot conservatives don't support this YET - but then again they still would not have won on the island ?

Anonymous said...

For someone claiming to have their finger on the pulse of political life on Anglesey you have displayed a remarkable failure in your prediction for the island seat.
Most people on the ground knew that Plaid's manifesto stance on Wylfa and general lack of any substantial campaign issues(their main issue seemed to be crying about not getting on the UK TV debates)was going to see their vote hit.
I am no die hard Labour supporter but of those candidates Albert Owen was the best for Anglesey.
He has taken a long period to adjust to life as a MP but I do feel he has over the last two years found his voice.
People keep saying he is nice but ineffective but MPs do not have magic wands to create or retain jobs.
No one could have saved Ang Al. He has pushed the island to the forefront for future job creation in terms of Wylfa B, and also other energy related projects, and unlike Plaid has championed RAF Valley and encouraged investment to the base(although not as much as he claimed!)
I hope for the island's sake that this does bring rewards in the future.
With the exception of your election predictions, keep up the good word, this is an excellent blog.

Anonymous said...

A sensible post Anon.14.55. Albert Owen was re-elected on his personal standing. Had the New Fridge man had a good run at this seat he might have pushed Plaid into 3rd position. As I have, said Ynys Mon is a Three way Marginal by rights. It looks as though Peter Rogers bubble has burst and now there could be a clean run for a determined Conservative or energetic labour candidate to unseat IWJ.

Two of you have poo-pooed the idea of IWJ losing the seat. Poo-Poo ye not! IWJ has not been an electoral asset. The Blue Druid is right to think that some Plaid voters have gone Tory. The problem for IWJ is this; He is in co-alition with Labour; this is anathema to some Plaidophiles. His higher profile nationally makes him vulnerable to criticism as the hard decisions are made.
The Assembly powers referendum will raise awareness of the Asembly elections. In previous years Plaid got their vote out un-opposed, that won't be the case this time. A higher turnout, demographic change and a Tory party finding its feet again in Ynys Mon will sound the death knell for IWJ and not before time!

falling over laughing said...

Still laughing - Poo-Poo ye not - wonderful, more please and who is the New Fridge man - has he got super powers - seems not !

The Druid of Anglesey said...

Well, making electoral predictions makes mugs out of all of us - I'm a Druid not a Soothsayer...!

Anonymous said...

So, so glad that the Druid got his come-uppance (by Druid I mean the faceless, nameless and useless blog that this is and has been - run by a political machine rather than one individual). I have a number of simple points to make.

> Druid - I originally admired and extolled this blog until I found that it was not really an objective forum but rather a one sided blue-rise brigade rant orgainised by a political machine.
> Albert Owen is useless (as people will now find out now that he's not part of Government or has his political pals to rely on - that ventriloquist dummy operator of a man Peter Hain in particular - has anyone else noticed that he does not open his mouth to speak)
> Albert Owen is not even a nice man as so many people here have commented - and is rabidly anti-Welsh and anti-Welsh Language to those of us who remember his background and silly Holyheadian rants prior to his political career (he only re-found his 'Welsh voice' on becoming an MP)
> The Daily Post and Holyhead Mail (Labour supporting Trinity Mirror Group) became Albert Owen's almost daily political pamphlet in the last weeks of the election. One particular double page spread in the Daily Post with a picture of Albet Owen and Ed Milliband sticks out a mile as the most desperately biased journalism I have ever seen in the Daily Post (and brings to mind how Albert won this seat in the first place - through the support of the Welsh Mirror and that fanatical anti-Welsh 'journalist' Paul Starling. Says it all for me).
Wylfa - yes it was Plaid's achillies heel. It was however a massive bluff and an example of what the British state can do to manipulate any situation. No planning application for Wylfa B is expected until 2011-2012 but it became an issue in this election on Anglesy because of the timing of a carefully manipulated timetable which meant that the 'announcements' of possible sites were made weeks before the General Election (coincidence -I think not, conpiracy theory - yes) - this has Peter Hain, Peter Mandelsson and Labour spin written all over it.
> Funny really - and this is Plaid's fault
- why Welsh Labour's anti-nuclear stance was not exposed. Rhodri Morgan was/is totally anti- nuclear and aginst Wylfa B as is official Labour Party policy in Wales. Albert will soon find out how difficult that will be for him now that he's out of government and without influential friends'
> The real facts, following on from the above, is that Anglesey is worse off after 13 years of Albert/Labour than when Albert was elected on a ticket of 'talking Anglesy down' for being a jobs/unemployment blackspot - its 10 times worse now since he was elected and he will be found out and turfed out on this
> I again predicted this election result on Ynys Mon right- as opposed to the Druids prediction - and totally agree with those who reject his equally absurd IWJ prediction at the next Assembly election. He had a very, very good election on a personal level - he won all the Welsh Leaders debates and made Hain look like a fool. How interesting it will be to see if the British establishemt/state will adopt a similar approach to the Welsh Assembly Elections if they know before hand that the 'best performer' will be someone who they don't want to win on account of their British paymasters wishes. Similarly, will Albert say, as he did this timne round that Brown, Hain et al (or whoever will be around at that time for Lsbour)should not have a say/voice/debate in the Assembly Election as this is a Welsh election rather than ..quote...British election'

Anonymous said...

I love the eternal optimism of you Plaidophiles Anon 04:05. It's almost as endearing as your cherished victimhood.

Go on, show me your Stigmata, "this is where the Anti-Welsh Media/Brits/Holyheadians/Establishment Nailed poor Plaid"

When youv'e finished spilling your bile consider this; IT WAS THE VOTERS THAT DID IT!
Can't blame Peter Rogers this time. The Plaid vote has dropped consistently in Ynys Mon over the last 3 elections, what's more Plaid polled 10,000 less votes nationally than they did in 2005.

Don't understand yet Plaidophile?


So the sacred IWJ is safe in the assembly elections? Think again! He polled fewer votes in 2007 than Eurig Wynne did in 2005. If he polls fewer than Dylan Rees at the next Assembly elections he can be overtaken by a determined Labour/Tory or Independent.

Prior to the 2011 elections IWJ is going to be out canvasing for more powers for the Assembly in the referendum. More people in Ynys Mon are going to realise that there IS an Assembly responsible for all of their day to day lives.

So is the Assembly overwhelmingly popular in Ynys Mon? I think that there is a large minority against further powers but more importantly the more Ynys Mon sees of IWJ the less they will like him!


Sorry but I disagree said...

To remind you, at the last Assembly election in 2007, Ieuan Wyn Jones increased his vote by 2.3%, Mr Rogers increased his vote by 23.3% and the Labour and Conservative votes fell by 6.4% and 15.5% respectively. The turnout was low. (source BBC)

In other words, Plaid Cymru can turn out their core vote for Assembly elections, whilst the other parties struggle to do so. So in order to win the next assembly election they will need credible candidates, and a large swing.

So don't necessarily write off Ieaun Wyn Jones yet, after all he is Deputy Prime Minister in the Assembly, which in a March poll by the BBC, showed increased support for giving the Welsh Assembly greater law-making powers.

And finally the Welsh Assembly to the credit of all political parties is a good example of consensus government.

The Druid of Anglesey said...

Hi All - seeing how the question of whether IWJ will be vulnerable at next year's assembly election has produced a lot of discussion here, I decided to write about it in more detail. See here:

The Druid of Anglesey said...

Sorry I disagree - Peter Rogers' vote decreased in 2007 it didn't increase. He polled 7,197 votes in 2003 as the official Conservative candidate and 6,261 in 2007 when he stood as an independent.

Sorry but I disagree said...

Ah yes, but he wasn't standing as the Official Conservative was he, and he started on a nil base, and any votes for him as a independent was a swing from the official conservatives or other parties respectfully. And he was second.

Anonymous said...

anon 4.05 - "The real facts, following on from the above, is that Anglesey is worse off after 13 years of Albert/Labour than when Albert was elected on a ticket of 'talking Anglesy down' for being a jobs/unemployment blackspot - its 10 times worse now since he was elected and he will be found out and turfed out on this"

Albert has represented YM for 9 years, not 13, and not the 23 IWJ has been representing us as MP and AM, during which he has achieved nothing for YM, at least AO is trying to bring real private sector jobs here while all Plaid want is a public sector bureaucratic state left on this island where they can divide up the jobs and detached rural homes between their middle class cronies.
Blaming the press for this defeat is pathetic, BBC wales, s4c, golwg, radio cymru are packed with Plaid supporters, hence the peter rogers smear that started the campaign
Instead of playing dirty tricks AO got big names to anglesey to back a positive idea(energy island) to create jobs on this island, he received press coverage because was actually coming up with proposals.
What ideas did rees have??
I am welsh speaking proud welshman who wants a positive future for our language and culture. I want greater independence for wales but we can only achieve this if we can stand alone economically - we can't do this under Plaid

Anonymous said...

Doh...."I am a Welsh speaking proud welshman". Say no more. I've heard that phrase so many times and then comes the ..however...which then goes on to prove that the author is not at all proud to be Welsh or Welsh speaking but a servile groveller of the British State.

Anonymous said...

OK then - 9 years not 13 years (happy now?) - but Albert's record is still crap. Again I have to refer to the simple but truthful fact that IWJ has NOT been in government or part of a party that has been in government for the best part of his 23 years as an MP or AM. Albert Owen had the 'luxury' of being an MP where both his English and Welsh Labour Party were in government in Wales and Britain - and still could not achieve anything for Anglesey. What's the point of bringing 'big names' to Anglesy if you still lose over 1,500 jobs and see the closure of Anglesy Aluminium, Eaton Electrics etc, etc? Big names is not what Anglesey wants and Albert's luck on that front will soon run out anyway - and then we'll see how effective he is as a backbench MP in a Parliament where his party (possibly/probably)will not hold power and where he will not be able to divert government ministers here just to say hello and then goodbye. Leaving Anglesey as the poorest county in Britain - oh sorry Albert, am I talking Anglesey down again - must learn not to do that and know my place. Labour is God.

The Druid of Anglesey said...

Anon 03:22 - I would say that is precisely the kind of attitude which loses Plaid Cymru votes.

Anonymous said...

Long may Anon 03:22 thrive and spew his bile!

Plaid may peddle the "We are the party of all of Wales" line until they are blue, sorry, green in the face but as long as the likes of Anon 03:22 are able to show Plaid's true colours only the foolish will believe it.

Anonymous said...

Ieuan Wyn Jones has spent nearly 25 years as a superior politician either as an AM or MP and how will we remember him?

I'm lost for words..can anyone help me here? exactly, we will remember him for being a somebody who ended up being a nobody, and this is how he has always treated us... he refers to us as nobody's when we should be treated like human beings.

Huw Terry

Anonymous said...

Did'nt the Conservatives do well ... Albert proved that Anglesey folk would vote for a donkey as long as it was an Anglsey donkey.

stats man said...

It's called the will of the people or democracy, so that 11,490 people anon 21:23 has just insulted, thats 1 in 3 of those who voted.

I do think Anthony Ridge-Newman did ok and came across as a decent person with a strong character, he increased the conservative vote, to 1 in 4.45 of those who voted.