Following the dramatically reduced Plaid Cymru vote in Ynys Mon this week, a pretty interesting discussion has been going on in comments below this post regarding whether Ieuan Wyn Jones will become vulnerable in his home seat at next year's Assembly elections. After all Plaid's candidate, Dylan Rees, polled a staggering 2,000 votes less than Eurig Wyn did five years ago - whilst the Tory candidate polled 4,000 more votes. Is this purely down to the unpopularity and unsuitability of the Plaid Candidate and the collapse of Peter Roger's vote? Possibly - but Plaid's vote throughout the whole of North Wales was slightly down and even the popular Elfyn Llwyd saw his vote drop by 6%. Perhaps we are witnessing a more fundamental change in North Wales which goes beyond the unpopularity of one candidate.
So what does this mean for Ieuan Wyn Jones at next year's Assembly elections? Firstly lets take a look at the Assembly results in Ynys Môn to date:
click to enlarge
Ieuan Wyn Jones won the inaugural 1999 election with more than 50% of the vote and the Druid remembers the seas of green in Anglesey pubs on the evening of the election. Since then IWJ's majorites have been more muted and hovered around the 10,000 mark - but it has to be noted that the turnout for the Assembly elections has also tumbled since 1999, probably because a lot of voters got bored after the novelty of the first election. Labour's vote has progressively declined at each election, and the Lib Dem vote completely collapsed in 2007. But look at the Conservative figures: up in 2003, and was arguably up again in 2007 and almost neck-and-neck with IWJ's if you add the Tory and Peter Rogers vote together.
Ah, you say, but Peter Rogers draws support from both the Tories and Plaid Cymru so you can't just add them together. Indeed that has always been the assumption (Eurig Wyn blamed his loss in 2005 on Peter Rogers), but lets take a look at this week's results: Despite Peter Rogers' personal vote falling by 2,000 votes it doesn't seem any of them went to Plaid Cymru - meaning that Rogers supporters must be mostly centre-right voters who, for whatever reason, preferred Rogers to the Conservative or UKIP candidates.
So, what will happen if Peter Rogers decides not to stand at next year's Assembly election? All things being equal it looks like the Conservative and Plaid Cymru vote could be very, very close indeed.
But here's the thing - all things won't be equal. In my opinion there will be four factors (three certain, one conjecture) which will make next year's Assembly election much more different than the last two:
- Next year Ieuan Wyn Jones will have to fight his first ever election as an officeholder and member of the Government. He is the First Deputy Minister of a Labour-Plaid coalition and he will have to fight on his record - a much more difficult prospect.
- The coming Assembly powers referendum will raise awareness of the importance of the Assembly and how it has more influence over the everyday lives of Welsh voters then Westminster - accordingly we can expect an increased turn out for next Year's election.
- Here comes the conjecture: suppose a Cameron led coalition or minority government (neither certain yet) decides to drop Cheryl Gillan and appoint Glyn Davies as Welsh Secretary instead. Glyn has just overturned Lembit Opik's 7,000 vote majority in Montgomeryshire and is a naturally charismatic, popular and respected dyed-in-his-roots Welsh (and Welsh speaking) politician. What's more is that he is also widely respected amongst amongst Plaid Cymru supporters (see here). If Glyn Davies was to achieve the same kind of ubiquity in the Welsh media as Peter Hain has in the same role then it would undoubtedly provide a powerful boost to the Conservative vote - especially in constituencies like Anglesey where it appears we are already seeing something of a surge in Conservative support.
- The final point which will set next year's Assembly election apart from previous ones will be by how much Wales will be effected by the Public Sector cuts to come - and to what extent they will be blamed on the incoming Westminster government, whatever shape that takes. Though interestingly if it is a Con-Lib coalition in Westminster and a Lab-Plaid coalition in Cardiff, none of the parties are going to be able to escape some involvement in the cuts.
So, there you are - no predictions, just some conjecture and food for thought for you.
58 comments:
only thing is Cameron is more likely to chose the more anodyne Jonathan Evans, who is quite unlike Glyn
Yes good food for thought (with a t), but it's still up to Labour and the Conservatives to put up a credible candidate against Ieuan Wyn Jones. And who knows we may have had another general election by then. I'd say it's odds on that Ieuan Wyn Jones will still be our assembly member after the next years assembly elections.
Do you think if a Welsh speaking Tory stood in the seat, then that would make the seat even closer between Plaid and the Conservatives? There are a couple of candidates that spring to mind but persuading them to stand may be another matter altogether.
History on one hand says yes, but then again the last Conservative to win in 1983 was Keith Best.
Mam - good point, lets see whether Cameron can recognise his opportunity to boost Conservative support in Wales by choosing the more dynamic and popular Glyn.
I'm still thinking too much is read into the Conservative revival on Thursday night. I was present at the count and must admit to have been surprised to see so many con. bundles piling up as I did not think that Ridge-Newman had fought that great a campaign. I'm aware that the A55 was awash with his placards in fields, but Rogers just about won that battle and we all know how poorly he performed, so we can't read that much into the farmers vote.
But Thursday was a typical 'British' election. The SNP made no gains in Scotland, and PC made no gains in Wales. The battle was portrayed as a battle of ideals, Tory v Labour, and even the Lib Dems after their excellent campaign, were squeezed out all over the country. A hell of a lot of tactical voting went on, nowhere less than here on Anglesey.
The Assembly elections are a different kettle of fish. This will be an exciting three way election, unless Labour manage to rejuvinate themselves between now and then (which is possible if Gordon Brown steps down). All 4 parties will be given equal billing in debates etc. In Electoral terms, for Ieuan Wyn Jones to lose the Anglesey seat would have been like John Major losing his Huntingdon seat in 1992, or Gordon Brown losing his Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency on Thursday.
We all know many people didn't vote Plaid on Thursday because they like Albert Owen and/or Dylan Rees wasn't a strong enough candidate. Ieuan Wyn Jones hasn't lost an Election here since 1987, so must be doing something right.
Since Megan Lloyd George lost to Cledwyn Hughes in the 1950's, the incumbent has never been defeated on Anglesey. Only when they retired (or had to stand down for other reasons!) has there been a change.
Or it could be that people didn't vote Plaid because they dislike Ieuan Wyn Jones and there's no getting away from him.I think he rests on past successes too much and now thinks that his seat is safe, also Plaid policies are too extreme and I think that if the Assemby is given more powers and they have any say in it, god help us all
Please elaborate on what you find too extreme?
Plaid Cymru has a core vote in Ynys Môn which especially in the Assembly elections they seem to be able to count on even when the turnout is low.To defeat Ieuan Wyn Jones, Labour or the Conservatives will need to ensure a higher turnout of their voters at the next assembly election than previously. And don't forget in a recent poll by the BBC over 50% of people living in Wales support the Welsh Assembly having greater law making powers.
unless Ieuan Wyn Jones can change Plaid policy on nuclear, as a matter of principle and personal honour, he should stand down or fight as an independent. (He could have a word with Peter Rogers about that:) )
To do otherwise is to little self-respect and smacks of the lowest political opportunism.
If I recall and unless the new Government changes the policy, the energy policy of the United Kingdom is decided at Westminster.
Also there is the party's policy as voted by it's members, and there is Ynys Môn's electorate view who voted for Ieuan Wyn Jones (the majority of whom when asked support nuclear power).
He is there to represent his electorate.
It all depends on candidates of course but the core vote for Plaid is shrinking. I said before that Plaid cannot GAIN more than their core in Ynys Mon and inrecent years that has been no more than 11,000 and falling.
If for instance Goronwy Parry were to throw his toys out of the pram and stand on a ticket of cleaning up local politics after a disasterous year of fraud allegations against a Plaid (and fellow travellers) council, could he draw all party support to defeat IWJ. I think so.
What if a prominent Labour man (Jeff Evans?) stood and pulled off the same trick as Albert- getting the Tribal Holyhead Labour vote out?
Plaid is playing a dangerous game in Westminster; IWJ doesn't rule out propping up a Tory Government. Think about it; has Wales given IWJ a mandate to support a right wing government when virtually all of the country has voted left of centre?
" getting the Tribal Holyhead Labour vote out?
"
Yes it was like a stampede, I was nearly trampled in the crush, when I went to vote mid morning I was the only one there!!!!!!!!!
We seem to be entering la la land again, Goronwy Parry (ex conservative standing) as what an independent? see Peter Rogers results - I say again if Ieuan Wyn Jones is to be defeated then Labour or the other parties need a credible candidate who can turn out their core vote.
In respect of a likely coalition conservative government, Plaid Cymru will not even figure in it.
Plaid Cymru are right not to rule out anything as of yet. They owe the Tories a chance to have their say, although we all know they won't agree on anything as the Tories are hell-bent on cutting the Welsh budget, which is what PC have campaigned against.
My preferred option would be a rainbow coalition (Labour, LibDems, Plaid Cymru, SNP, SDLP and the Green Party). Although they don't agree on everything, at least all are somewhat progressive parties and could agree on a budget etc, with Plaid and SNP gaining concessions in making sure the Welsh block isn't affected.
Again can we have some reality, the Assembly budget is to be cut irrespective of who is in power - it just a case of when and by how much. And if I recall what Eurfyl ap Gwilym (Plaid Cymru economic adviser) said the Welsh budget needs to be cut by 2.8 billion over the next 3 years.
He didn't say it needs to be cut, he says that Wales would face cuts.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/03/wales-david-cameron-cuts
Gareth - you've made some interesting points. Here are some comments from my side:
"In Electoral terms, for Ieuan Wyn Jones to lose the Anglesey seat would have been like John Major losing his Huntingdon seat in 1992, or Gordon Brown losing his Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency on Thursday. "
Possibly - but Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (or 'Kirkcaldy' as it was before, and 'Kirkcaldy Burghs' previously) has returned a Labour MP at every election since 1935. Similarly Cameron's constituency of Witney (Banbury previously) has exclusively returned Conservative MPs since 1922. In contrast as recently as 1987 Ynys Mon had a Tory MP and currently has a Labour MP. By no stretch of the imagination is Ynys Mon a 'safe' Plaid Cymru constituency in the same way as Kirkcaldy is for Brown, etc.
"the Tories are hell-bent on cutting the Welsh budget, which is what PC have campaigned against."
As Stats Man also pointed out, whoever ends up being in power after this current shambles is sorted out will have to make cuts. I don't see any evidence that the Tories are 'hell-bent' on cutting the Welsh budget in particular.
"My preferred option would be a rainbow coalition (Labour, LibDems, Plaid Cymru, SNP, SDLP and the Green Party)."
Such a 'rainbow coalition' would be as unstable as they come and surely unlikely to last more than a few month. Trying to keep all those parties happy would be pretty nye impossible.
"Although they don't agree on everything, at least all are somewhat progressive parties and could agree on a budget etc, with Plaid and SNP gaining concessions in making sure the Welsh block isn't affected."
I fail to see what's 'progressive' about trying to make just the English public sector and taxpayers feel the pain of cuts.
Ydych chi'n blino weithiau ar fod yn anghywir trwy'r amser?
Speculation is good for the soul. The Tories have impetus in Ynys Mon but it is possible to find labour candidates of quality. Is Colin Parry still about?
I know that Plaidophile loyalists don't like to see their sacred leader discussed but I have to say that he CHOSE to be the Plaid figure-head in this spectacularly un-successful Plaid effort.
Is it not possible that even Plaid loyalists realise that Dylan Rees was a poor choice and IWJ failed to engage with the voters either in Ynys Mon or Wales?
If Dylan Rees was IWJ's protege then where was the leaders judgement when he chose this turkey?
Cai from BlogMenai asks above (in Welsh) if I don't sometimes tire of being wrong all the time.
BlogMenai and I had a disagreement some time ago when I said that even in the event of a hung parliament there was almost no chance that Plaid would have any influence. Cai argued that the opposite. I suppose there's still time for Labour to announce an agreement with the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, the Green Party etc in which Wales will receive a larger block grant and no cuts. When that happens, Cai can come around here and, with justification, ask me the same question. Until then he risks making himself look foolish.
Again unless labour or the conservatives can find a credible candidate, who can turn out their core vote, all odds are on Ieuan Wyn Jones winning in 2011. Not that I'm a Plaid Cymru supporter, just a realist. Which is where this post started I think.
As it happens I was correct. The numbers do make it possible for Plaid / SNP to make the difference between one big unionist party & the other being in power. You were arguing that such a permutation was next to impossible. No?
"What if a prominent Labour man (Jeff Evans?) stood and pulled off the same trick as Albert- getting the Tribal Holyhead Labour vote out?"
a non-starter.
1. Jeff Evans is not Labour/Albert
2. Albert has support across the whole of Anglesey - and it's not "tribal"
himself) he ran a very energetic and forward thinking campaign which had a much larger number of support on the island than I'd ever expected to see. And it was all done on a shoestring.
His 11% increase in the vote considering he only had a matter of a few months to organise himself was astounding. Sadly I don't think it was ever likely he could win because of the loyalty Albert Owen seems to have, although even die hard fans ought to seriously recognise the negative and uninspiing campaign he ran.
However this election has ensured the Conservatives are firmly back in the game on Anglesey, especially if there's another election within 12 - 18 months. It's clear Peter Rogers cannot stand again and it's fairly likely, based on your analysis, that his votes will go to the Tories which would make it fascinating.
I would love to see Ieuan Wyn Jones lose his seat as I have no idea what he has ever done for Anglesey and have no time for what Plaid Cymru stand for. It seems to be the party has to decide whether it's viable to continue putting up candidates for Westminster elections as there's every chance that as time goes on they will become an even greater irrelevance in British politics than they already are. I completely understand people voting for them in the Assembly elections, but otherwise what do people really expect a Plaid MP to do, other than pursue narrow, insular policies which further detach Anglesey and Britian from the real world of politics?
Wishfull thinking on you behalf not conjecture I'm sure. Get back to exposing the wrongs of the island you've got a better track record.
BlogMenai -
"As it happens I was correct. The numbers do make it possible for Plaid / SNP to make the difference between one big unionist party & the other being in power. You were arguing that such a permutation was next to impossible. No?"
I argued that Plaid was dishonest to suggest to voters than in event of a hung parliament they would have more influence. I said that despite the certainty with which Plaid made the assertion, the probability of them actually having any influence after the election was almost zero. Until a coalition of Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Greens and whatever other parties they need to form a majority is announced, I am right.
To G.D and friends
I could list a number of good things that the current Welsh Assembly government have done for Ynys Môn (but I doubt you'd listen), and under the leadership of Ieuan Wyn Jones the popularity of Plaid Cymru is growing, albeit not reflected in the general election.
Returning to one of the Druid's questions above at the start of this post - what does this mean for Ieuan Wyn Jones at next year's assembly elections - Answer - 'noting' unless the others can put up a credible candidate who can turn out their core vote - end of.
It really doesn't matter how much you'd love to see Ieuan Wyn Jones loose, it won't happen unless see my 'Answer' above. It's not Ieuan Wyn Jones election to loose it's for others to win -think positive or for ever be negative.
Anon 23:05 - watch this space.
Thank you, meant credible though - as in someone who is believable, not someone deserving of often limited praise or commendation, but then again englsh is my second language so what do I know.
Stats. Man-
Where is the evidence that IWJ has Increased the popularity of Plaid Cymru?
If the "Increased Popularity" of Plaid Cymru is not measured in increased votes what are Plaid Politicians for?
Plaid lost 10,000 votes throughout Wales in this election as a mark of their "Increased Popularity" but everywhere I read Plaid supporters confidently saying that 5 seats were a shoo-in for Plaid, that 7 seats were a distinct possibility and that Plaid were "Contenders" in more than 20 seats in Wales.
I thought that Plaid could depend on 2 seats, were favourites in Arfon and would lose in Ceredigion and Ynys Mon.
The conclusion I draw is that Plaid are seriously fooling themselves by the STRENGTH of their support from committed Plaidophiles rather than looking at the depth and EXTENT of their support amongst the population in general.
In 2005 Plaid polled 175,000 in the GE and 219,000 in the AE (constituencies). That's 12.6% and 22.4%.
I will admit that a Political party that goes into a Westminster election trumpeting the fact that they are not a "Westminster Party" and are there only for Wales benefit is likely to suffer at the Ballot box from the judgement of the 90% of people in Wales who still consider that the country is part of the UK, but such a stance is a POLITICAL decision taken by the leader IWJ.
The question being floated in this blog is this; can Plaid in Ynys Mon raise their game in the Assembly elections to resist a resurgent Tory challenge or a dynamic Labour candidate?
I will say again, leaving aside the flippant speculation about likely candidates, over recent elections Plaid's vote has only FALLEN in number in Ynys Mon.
One factor which is not given due consideration is demographic change; you can trace this through the Welsh local labour force figures which, for instance, show a consistent drop in the number of Welsh speakers in the adult population since 2001. Migration of local youngsters to the South East of Wales (Cardiff in particular) and the increase in the number of elderly people from the NW of England has an effect on the profile of voters. As long as this profile remains evenly divided between Con and Lab then Plaid can remain secure. A surge for one party or the other puts IWJ at risk because Culture and Language Nationalism does not win votes from the entire spectrum of the electorate; Plaid cannot GAIN votes in Ynys Mon.
All very interesting but let me throw in an English perspective on the 'rainbow' coalition. Whilst ex-service types like myself have an immense loyalty to the union I would have to say it has become strained amongst many of my fellow country men since devolution. All too often, although paying the same taxes, we see our Celtic neighbours, particularly to the north, enjoying rights and privileges denied us. Imagine the scenario if a Labour dominated government, in order to keep its nationalist partners on board, directed the heaviest cuts against us English. After all, in England alone the Conservatives would have a sixty-two seat majority, so we most definitely don't want a Labour government. How long would such a coalition last? More worryingly, how long would the union last if the English are to be perpetually the poor relations governed by north of the border elected Scots.
We either break away from this insular nationalistic politics or ultimately we break the union and having served alongside Brits from all over these isles I would personally find that very sad.
The Union is a different question to that being discussed.
I would make a point though; Wales is NOT one country. It can be divided into Eastern/Southern regions, mostly prosperous, eastward looking with small Welsh speaking populations. As far as Wales is concerned this is the Wealth creating part of the country.
The other part of the country is the "Fro Cymraeg". sparsely populated, heavily subsidised in the form of public service employment and of course with a high concentration of Welsh speakers.
The Union is being undermined by a well organised and effective "Culture and Language" minority which is in the Assembly government as Plaid.
England will rightly be P'd off if Wales is disproportionately protected from the consequences of economic cut backs but any protection of Wales will be claimed as a triumph for Plaid. Any hardship a failure of Labour.
Labour is clutching a snake to its bosom in the Assembly.
Druid:
Until a coalition of Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Greens and whatever other parties they need to form a majority is announced, I am right.
You're no more right than you've been in most of your recent predictions. If I remember correctly you quantified the chances of Plaid / SNP holding the balance of power at 1%. If your pseudo maths was anything like correct you're very unlucky.
re: Anonymous
Quite frankly, I don't give two hoots if people in England are P'D off if Wales would get more funding. My priorities are the well being of Anglesey, and Wales as a whole. Which is exactly what i'd expect of my representative in the London Parliament.
We are in danger of losing focus once again, can I start saying I am not a Plaid Cymru supporter, but I am saddened to read derogatory remarks about them, I refer to Anon 8:27 and others and the use of the word 'Plaidophiles', it's not funny and it's not clever!
Returning to the Druid's question -'So what does this mean for Ieuan Wyn Jones at next year's Assembly elections?' I think I've answered that question already.
BlogMenai -
As you persist, here is a quote from my original post:
"The only conclusion we can draw from the above is that even if it is mathematically possible for Plaid Cymru and the SNP to form a coalition government [with the Tories], the practicalities would make it unworkable. It is simply far more likely that the Conservatives would form a coalition with the Lib Dems, who with a predicted 50 seats, would give a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition a much more comfortable 39 seat majority. In such a case there would be no need for Plaid Cymru's support."
Looks like I got that absolutely spot-on. Here's another quote:
"Accordingly, the mathematical chances of Plaid Cymru forming a coalition government with the Conservatives - and thus seeking a so-called 'fairer deal' for Wales - is less than one percent."
Here I was wrong. The actual probability of Plaid forming a coalition with the Tories is not less than one percent - it is actually zero percent...
URL for the above quotes: http://druidsrevenge.blogspot.com/2010/03/will-plaid-cymru-have-any-influence-in.html
'Plaidophile' just means someone who loves Plaid, same as a Francophile likes the French.
I see what you mean though.
To Anon
Sorry, maybe I was being oversensitive, but I'm sure there a better term, I'll try and think of one.
most of my family in Llanddaniel and Brynsiencyn voted Labour for the following reasons: my sister, to protect her child tax credits, for my uncle and 2 cousins, to combat the Cameron threat to enforce what they percieve as 'enforced work or no dole', my Mum as a teacher who feels that the public sector is a job creator and several aunts plus my Nain who just always do anyway and my Nain believed that her bus pass was under threat, becauss she heard Peter Hain on TV??????????????????????!
Plaidaholic?
Only joshing.
Stats man;
In comparison to posts from rabid plaidophiles the post you quoted was measured, reasonable and completely legitimate.
I shall continue to use "Plaidophile" just as people use "Anglophile" "Europhile" Or "Francophile".
If you find it distasteful in some way I am not responsible. As for it not being funny; some aspects of Plaid are far from funny.
What aspects?
I think I did apologies, to someone, but it's hard to talk to anon's.
In answer to your comment (hopefully?), then I think you where challenging my claim that Ieuan Wyn Jones had made Plaid Cymru popular - which was not reflected in the General Election result. As in also Nick Clegg had made his party popular, but not reflected in the General Election results.
I think we are talking a different popular and meaning of. Sorry
It is interesting to read some of the comments posted and having read the Druid for some weeks now I find them so naive. I was delighted to see Glyn win in Montgomery but as Secretary for Wales, get real. I would want someone who knows how Westminster works and knows all the ins and outs and can get the best for Wales but not chosen just because he speaks Welsh. Your readers may not be familiar with London but very few people speak Welsh there, unlike here it is not compulsory
The best of 40 million should be better than the best of 4 million. The best of 40,000 is next to a turd.
Ooh, anyone else sense the bitterness in Old Mona's post. Been refused a job with the Council have we? ;)
You couldn't be more wrong Gareth but your answer is typical. I am one of those weirdo's who believe people should be appointed to positions based on merit and experience and not solely on their ability to speak Welsh
Well, seeing as they are there to serve the public, it's completely reasonable that the local population, of which a majority have Welsh as their mother tongue, deserve their services in their desired language.
Comment made by Anon at 16.34 deleted for the same reasons I deleted the comment he quoted earlier on another thread!
A large minority of people in Anglsey and the majority of people in Wales do not have Welsh as their mother tongue and I really have no problem with the Welsh Langaude but I still want the BEST people in jobs based on merit and experience and not on whether they speak Welsn
For information - In Key Statistics for Angelsey April 2008 from Welsh Assembly, data for 2001 - Of the population aged 3 and above - 59.8% can speak welsh, 70.4% have one or more skills in welsh
Ah but stats man. Only 79.8% of those 59.8% speak Welsh fluently arguing that the number of FIRST LANGUAGE Welsh speakers is less than you think since all first language Welsh speakers speak Welsh fluently but all fluent Welsh speakers are not first language Welsh speakers.
Since you obviously like your stats tables look at Children in primary schools- only 40% come from homes where Welsh is the first language.
If you are in the mood look at how many children leaving primary at year six STILL are not fluent in Welsh.
An objective observer might be horrified at the number of children who have gone through their entire Primary school career without being able to effectively communicate with their Welsh speaking teacher.
Not in Ynys Mon however, we won't let a little thing like ruining a small childs education stand in the way of our Welsh Medium Schools Policy..... Oh dear me NO! We are made of sterner stuff!
To Anon 13:07 have no f*****ing idea what you are talking about, I quote some statistics and you begin to rant about something completely different.
What does - An objective observer might be horrified at the number of children who have gone through their entire Primary school career without being able to effectively communicate with their Welsh speaking teacher - actually mean.
Not sure what or viewpoint is, not sure I really care!
Not sure I care says it all.
Yep says it all, comments that do not make sense deserve to be ignored. Like yours and yours.
OK stats man, so you aren't up to understanding a simple post. Fair enough.
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