Friday, 7 May 2010

Examining the North Wales results

Only two seats have changed hands in North Wales, with Plaid Cymru's Hywel Williams notionally picking up the new constituency of Arfon from Labour, and the Conservatives' Guto Bebb also winning Aberconwy from Labour.

However, if we look at the underlying figures a very interesting picture emerges as per the following chart collecting the percentage point gains or losses for each North Wales constituency (with Dwyfor Merionydd a bonus addition because the Druid considers it part of North Wales - not mid Wales). Red shading represents a drop in support by more than one percentage point; green shading a gain of more than one point; and grey shading representing a gain or loss of less than one percentage point):
click to enlarge

Despite losing only two seats, Labour have lost support in every North Wales constituency - dropping an average of 6.6 percentage points. Conversely the Conservatives have gained almost exactly the same amount of support which Labour has lost, with an average gain of 6.1 percentage points.

The two other parties, the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru have basically flatlined. Rather surprisingly Dwyfor Merionydd's Elfyn Llwyd experienced the largest decline in Plaid Cymru support in North Wales with a drop of 6 points. Plaid's Ynys Mon candidate, Dylan Rees, with a drop of almost 5 points, saw the second highest decline - despite the fact that Plaid Cymru had flung resources into winning the Island. Only goes to prove what a weak candidate he was (as repeatedly pointed out by the Druid). Plaid Cymru have of course been blaming their poor showing on their exclusion from the televised Leaders Debates - however, the Druid begs to differ. As I pointed out earlier this week, the poll evidence points to Plaid losing support well before the first TV debate was shown (see here).
Anyway, as we have a hung parliament nationally it is extremely likely that we will have another election within twelve months.


falling over laughing said...

Just heard Stephen Dorrell MP say that the economy was 'the elephant in the drawing room' -says it all really.

Chameleon said...

Plaid will always suffer at Westminster elections, as any influence they have is obviously very limited. As you point out, some of their candidates are not as good as they could be, also.

Anonymous said...

interesting analysis but are the percentages quoted in your table changes in the proportion of the whole turnout or changes in the total vote?
I ask this question because the turnout was higher this time.
Anona Mouse

twpsyn said...

another election in 12 months? Will we see Dylan Rees and Anthony Ridge Newman again or is that it?

Gareth said...

Doubt Dylan Rees will stand again. Being a Plaid Supporter I found him to be a personable enough chap, but was not what's needed to get rid of an reasonably popular (especially in certain areas) incumbent MP. With personal politics being so important on the Island, you can't stick a Green rosette on someone and expect them to win.

Mike said...

Gareth said: "With personal politics being so important on the Island, you can't stick a Green rosette on someone and expect them to win."

So why is IWJ so different to Dylan Rees (apart from incumbency and habit)? Could 2011 be an "Election Too Far" for IWJ, especially with him looking very tired under the burdens of office and Adam Price breathing down his neck?

Gareth said...

If the Assembly Powers Referendum results in our favour, and primary law making powers coming down to Cardiff Bay, how silly would it be to vote out the party leader of a coalition partner? He isn't the most charismatic by any means (although he's improved) but he obviously has a personal vote, and people tend to vote differently in Assembly and London Parliament Elections.

The Druid of Anglesey said...

Anona Mouse - the percentages quoted are changes in vote share compared to 2005 as recorded by the BBC here:

Gareth - " how silly would it be to vote out the party leader of a coalition partner? "

Surely that depends on what value the voters of the constituency think they are receiving from him. In my opinion Anglesey has too many problems and needs a full-time AM; currently we only have, at best, a part-time one.

jkw24 said...

Dear Druid,
I'm also a fellow blogger from Deganwy. I'm trying to import a spreadsheet into my posting.
I see you have done something similar on this and the previous posting.
I'd appreciuate any tips, everything I'm trying isn't working.
Many Thanks