Wednesday, 5 May 2010

Last Wales Poll before the Election (Updated)

    
ITV Wales have just published the topline results of the last Wales voting intention poll before tomorrow's general election:

CON      27% (+4)
LAB      35% (+2)
LDEM   23% (-6)
PLAID  10% (+1)

The comparisons are with the YouGov Wales poll of April 19th at the height of Cleggmania - it seems the Welsh electorate have now pretty much returned to their senses.

UPDATE: YouGov have now also published the regional figures for North Wales, so here they are:

CON      33% (+9)
LAB       33% (-8)
LDEM   19% (+4)
PLAID   10% (-4)

The comparisons this time are with the actual North Wales General Election results of 2005. The big losers since 2005 are Labour (down 8 points) and Plaid (down 4 points). To give you an idea of how the voting intentions in North Wales have changed over the past 5 years, see the Druid's North Wales poll tracker below:

click to enlarge

At the time of the 3 March 2010 poll, there were many Plaid-supporting bloggers who claimed that the depressed Plaid Cymru figures for North Wales were purely down to YouGov's North Wales sample being too small. However, as the above poll tracker shows, Plaid's voting intention in North Wales has now consistently remained at 10% for the last three polls (3 March, 19 April, and 5 May). Furthermore, if these results are accurate, Plaid's claim that their polling figures have been adversely effected by not being included in the Leaders Debates does not hold water - at least not in North Wales. It is clear that Plaid's support slumped to 10% before the Leaders Debates and has remained there ever since. 

Of course, we will find out how accurate these polls are tomorrow...
     

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

...which just goes to show that when it comes to important voting activity, people in Wales just go into sheep mode and go for either Labour or Tory. They also don't seem to know what policies the parties espouse.

Anonymous said...

In 1997 John Major visited Anglesey and one of the things he said was "This country would never be the same again" if Labour won. Well now is our chance to start putting things right or this country will be like Greece. Every time Labour have been power they make a real mess of things. Remember as I earlier commented about voting for your country you are voting for the lost mountain sheep that only looks for pastures for themselves. For the sake of Wales and the UK vote for change!! Make Wales blue and not the socialist green and red !!!

Un o Fôn

Precision Pete said...

But how valid are these YouGov numbers for Ynys Mon and Arfon, when PC got 45.5% and 31.1% in Caernarfon and YM in 2005?
It may be that the Tories are well ahead in Aberconway and points West and it is averaging out to the figures above.

The Druid of Anglesey said...

Precision Pete - you are right. the further East you go in N.Wales, the more Conservative it becomes; the further West, the more Plaid supporting it becomes. North Wales is not really culturally and politically unified!

Anonymous said...

"Every time Labour have been power they make a real mess of things"

And the Conservatives made a really super job of it, I don't think it matters who you vote for we're doomed already

Anonymous said...

Labour have to be got rid of - simple as that. The promises made were all broken and they have done nothing for the country as a whole.

For me it has to be the party that will take the UK out of Europe. UKIP - but I note they atre not evry well represented in Wales. Pity that.

At least one thing looks like making me a happy man on Friday - Brown and his circus will be out. That is no nad thing!

Griffon

Anonymous said...

I want labour to stay in one more term, just to ensure they stay out for 20 years afterwards.

stats man said...

Must have missed this comment by the Druid but cant let it go:

"Precision Pete - you are right. the further East you go in N.Wales, the more Conservative it becomes; the further West, the more Plaid supporting it becomes. North Wales is not really culturally and politically unified!"

Not sure what you mean, i.e Wrexham B.C Liberal Democrats controlled. Of course North Wales is culturally unified where Welsh and proud of it, irrespective of whether you can speak welsh or not.

Unless you haven't heard welsh culture is growing, we have self belief, we have found our voice, Wales is cool, but then again oldies like you may not understand.