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| Peter and I, yesterday. |
Peter has been a fearless and formidable voice for Ynys Môn for many years and a family friend for even longer. I am delighted by his support and proud to have his nomination going into this election. This means that the vote will no longer be split and is good news for Ynys Môn residents who want their vote to mean that they can see the back of Ieuan Wyn Jones.
As many of you will know, Peter Rogers sat in the First Assembly (1999-2003) as a regional Conservative AM for North Wales. He was also the Conservative constituency candidate for Ynys Môn in the Assembly election in 2003 and has always fought hard for the interests of Ynys Mon. He was also always Plaid Cymru's most feared competitor on Ynys Môn.
This is what Peter says in today's Daily Post:
"There are so many economic and social problems facing Anglesey. It is time for change and now there is a candidate who can beat Ieuan Wyn Jones. He is a Welsh speaker from the Island who has been a successful businessman and is now dedicated to helping Anglesey. I have not buried the hatchet with the Tories but this candidate has my personal backing"What Does This Mean?
Below are the complete results of the last three Assembly elections.
The combined Peter Rogers and Conservative vote in 2007 comes to within 900 votes of Ieuan Wyn Jones' tally. According to the latest ITV Wales/YouGov poll, whereas the Conservative vote is consistent, Plaid Cymru is now polling 5 percentage points below where it was at the 2007 election (17% now compared to 22% in 2007) meaning that Ieuan Wyn Jones is unlikely to get more than 10,000 votes next month. If we consider that UKIP are not fielding a candidate and that they picked up over 800 votes in 2007, then the only conclusion is that Ieuan Wyn Jones is vulnerable.
Labour are currently riding high in the same polls (though the poll expert Mike Smithson disputes whether they are polling quite as high as YouGov report) but people vote differently in different elections, and for Labour to win they would need to more than double their 2007 vote.
If you want to see Ieuan Wyn Jones removed and a fresh start for Anglesey, our economy and Wales, then there is now only one credible way to vote.
98 comments:
'If you want to see ...a fresh start for Anglesey, our economy and Wales, then there is now only one credible way to vote' .....
With your feet!
Trons glan i Ieuan, plis!
Shame that what the Druid's party colleagues are up to in Westminster will MASSIVELY count against him and indeed other Tory candidates around the country. E.g. in the ConDem-controlled council of Birmingham I'd expect mass extermination of the ConDem candidates who are up for reelection (and for good reason too - but they'd take a battering because of Westminster regardless).
"We're all in this together"
"No cuts in front line services"
Said the head of the Millionaires Cabinet.
May the best man win.
I have heard that Jason Weyman (Blogger)from Conwy is standing as a Independent Candidate for the North Wales Region.
It has been said before but both the Druid and Jason as Assembly Members has got to be a good thing.
Jason will though need the people to vote across the whole of North Wales including the island.
Well done Paul, on getting the approval and confidence of Peter Rodgers, just be real Paul and be yourself, don't turn your back on the people who have been ignored for years, be fair, be honest and be crystal clear in helping the people first and foremost. Thank you.
Never quite understood the point of shaking hands and looking at the camera.
Shake hands and look at each other, dictum meum pactum, and then both look at the camera after the deed has been done.
Still, I'm no politician (and for politicians dictum meum pactum rarely applies).
Dymuniadau gorau i Paul Williams.
Mae yn haeddu y sedd, fel person lleol gyda gwreiddiau dyfn ym Mon, syniadau pellweledig, a'r gallu anturiaethol, a'r intellect i ymchwilio, cyflwyno a marchnata syniadau ffresh a gwreiddiol tuag ateb problemau di-rif Mon.
Gyda gobaith, a lwc, bydd Mon a'i phobl yn symud ymlaen i ddyfodol llawer mwy heulog ar 5 Mai.
Os 'wyf yn anghywir, byddem yn gwynebu blynyddoedd duon iawn, o dan IWJ, 'rwy'n ofni !!
The political 'pairings' on the island will be:
Joe Lock & John Chorlton
IWJ & Bob Parry
Paul Williams & Peter Rogers
One of the questions must be which of these pairings would do most to address and deal with our Local Authority problems?
Certainly the latter pair would appear to have done the most in the 'addressing' of problems.
Leider kann ich nicht verstehen diese Idioten. Ist das mein Problem oder sie es für ihr Problem?
Eigentlich ist es ein echtes Problem für diese Insel!
Herr?frau KP, Ich glaube du hast ein kleine vogel in deine kopf!!
To Paul, well done on getting Peter on board. Some time ago I said that without his backing you would find it hard to win with the split vote but combining the Rogers/Williams vote will give y ou a fighting chance. As KP might say Viel Gluck
Quite so Groundhog.
To Paul:
Viel Glück junger Mann. Ich helfe Ihnen alles, was ich kann. Diese Insel braucht alle Hilfe, die es bekommen kann.
¿quién ganó la guerra?
Which one?
Dyma un Pleidiwr a'i Deulu (7 ohonom) bydd ddim yn cefnogi Ieuan tro hwn(am y tro cyntaf erioed)-mae wedi ein gadael i lawr-Byddan yn cefnogi Paul oherwydd ei fod yn Fachgen lleol er nad ydym yn Toriaid...
Ymunwch gyda ni Pobl Mon,er mwyn dyfodol eich Ynys...Dorwch y "X" i Paul...
قد والله يرحم لكم جميعا
I will be a tightly fought two horse race.
And the tories will come third and their bedfellows the Lib Dems may as well save themselves the time and the effort. By climbing into bed with Cameron Clegg has all byt destroyed the Lib Dems.
Good luck anyway Druid - you'll need it.
Today, was the first day of the best for Anglesey.
Ieuan Wyn will be looking for the escape shute....
pincer movement: one side from Labour, and the other side, Rogers/Williams.
=
the end.
Prometheusrites 1527:
ha ha ha!
do you think IWJ and Joe Lock welcome those partners you mention?
Bob Parry and John Chorlton. Is this a lame attempt to further another agenda, i wonder?
these two will retire, as their seats are disappearing. have you forgotten?
.....and then a new start for long sufferiung Anglesey people
Cymru yw hon, yr iaith yw y Gymraeg.
This is Wales, its language is Welsh.
English is tolerated.
Paul, please don't forget to put your election posters on here so we can print them off and have fun in work. etc. I want to be the first to shove up someone's backside..sideways.
Has the ombudsman reported on the Rogers case yet?
Just asking.
Paul
Well done for getting Peters' endorsement and I wish you well in your campaign!
Regards
Glyn
Analysis: what if most Labour and Lib. Dem. voters supported Plaid Cymru? Then you have, even if UKIP voters go Blue, PC =15,000, leaving Druid well behind.
Nobody knows how the dice will roll. 1999 and 2003 tell a very different story to 2007, so why choose that one year?
Paul - the grammatically correct construction is "Peter and me" - not "Peter and I". ...Sorry to be pedantic and all that - but, after all, English IS the national language of Wales.
Statsman... IWJ gets 15,000 votes? I think a just saw a flying pig. hahahaha.
Anon 22:30, I think you are correct.
You see, that just goes to prove my point about the education system here on Anglesey.
Mind you, I didn't spot it myself either, so perhaps it also says something about my education!
他言語にてご支援頂きまして、有り難うございます。
Hey Paul, me too if truth be known!
WHy is there no Conservative standing in Arfon, only a BNP and the mercurial Nou Gwanas? very strange!
And a communist in Ynys Mon? Uhh?
Don Cortez --- an Aled Davies is standing for the conservatives in Arfron:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Assembly_for_Wales_election,_2011#Constituency_nominations
Paul will be a breath of fresh air, new ideas and new start for Ynys Mon. Now is the time to support the local boy and vote for going forward instead of living in the past with the "Lost Mountain Sheep Party". A Llangefni resident said to me the other day "you could not write on a stamp" what IWJ has done for us in Ynys Mon, but you could write a novel on the harm he has done to us with his backward policies.
The choice simple vote for IWJ to stay as we are or vote for Paul to move forward.
Bob Lwc Paul !!
Un o Fon
Daidy Plaid IWJ would have been a political non-runner without patriot votes.
Patriotic votes do for IWJ what Viagra does for our Councillor's bar Barrie Durkin who puts them in his eyes and looks hard.
My prediction for May is:-
Plaid 11,000; Conserv 9,500; Labour 6,000
Odds: 1/4 Daidy Plaid;
2/1 The Druid
4/1 Lock N Roll
Rwyf am bleidleisio am y Derwydd (h.y. Paul), rwyf wedi penderfynu hynny ers rhai misoedd.
Ond, yn barchus, yw Paul yn mynd i cael gwneud beth y mae o eisiau wneud, neu ydy'r "Tory top brass" yn mynd i rhoi clip ar ei adenau? Nid yw rhai o'i syniadau yn "toeing the Tory Party line", cofiwch!
I hope that Paul Williams wins with a resounding victory and declares " Anglesey is open for business" Because, for years while we have had IWJ and AO we have been closed.
Quite a few of the residents in my village of Bodffordd who have voted plaid in the past say they are not happy in the way IWJ has performed (Or should I say not performed) are going to give Paul a chance this time round.
Much of this change can be laid at the door of Plaid's County Councillor William Hughes who's ability to represent the people of his constituency has been second to nil.
Dwi ddim o Bodffordd, ond nid wyf yn hyderus gyda'r Cynghorydd a enwyd uchod ychwaith. "Semi-Personal Grievance"
Anon 10:32 eto,
Nid ydy beth dwi'n son am yn dod o dan ei dyletswyddau fel Cynghorydd, gyda llaw...
Whats "Semi personal gain" mean?
"Semi-Personal Grievance" (nid "gain", gyda llaw)
Ni allaf ddweud mwy, achos fuasau'n wneud yn amlwg pwy ydwyf a pham. Nid ydyw rhywbeth (ddim yn uniongyrchol, p'ryn bynnag) gyda'i ddyletswyddau cynghorydd.
P'ryn bynnag, dyla ni ddim defnyddio blog Paul fel "crusade" yn erbyn unigolion.
Druid, it's good to see that your blog readers have multi-linguistic talents. However, apart from those cunning-linguists, it does make the blog somewhat exclusive (as opposed to inclusive).
I'm not suggesting you move to commenting in Esperanto only, but translations for those of us who aren't fluent in written Welsh would be useful, (and respectful in the spirit of the Welsh Language Act).
It's about time that the voters realised that they were taken for granted by the Councillors they elected, and the Assembly Member we elected. Painful but true.
The wasted opportunities and jobs that were lost by these superior people should be remembered by the voters. It's your vote that elected these losers. Painful but true.
They ignored us all as soon as they were elected, and there is absolutley no point trying to remember any good thing that they have done, you will only be wasting your time.
They will pay the price for failure. They will pay the price for letting us down. They will pay the price for making us all look like fools and turning Anglesey into the laughing stock of Wales.
Plaid Cymru and IWJ are rolling out the campaign wheelbarrow, full of literature on creating jobs, what a joke, he has stood by and cost us all our jobs.
Labour's AO is wringing his hands in shame, at the prospect of campaigning with his candidate, he would be better off staying round Holyhead, he is as welcome in the rest of Anglesey as the Plague.
We are all entitled to a decent future, Plaid Cymru and Labour have taken that away from us, we are all entitled to live as free people in Anglesey. Instead, what did we have? Our Island used as a Political Bloodbath, between Labour and Plaid Cymru that has cost us all dearly.
To survive and live we will have to take a massive risk and get rid of the old coat that Anglesey has worn for years, the old anorak of Plaid Cymru is worn out and tired, motheaten and tattered.
We want change and constitutional change, we need a new structure in Anglesey's Council, based on honesty and trust, something that has been missing for generations, it's a cancer that has affected us all. And this mess was all down to the mixed parties, that had their own agenda to follow, but ignored the people's needs.
We need to change, we need to be the cause of change and not the victim. The old ways have chocked us all, and have suffocated any prospect of working on this Island, we need a way forward and we will only get that with Paul Williams.
With Peter on board, there will be a real battle, the enemy versus the Druid.
I appreciate that tis blog has been a breath of fresh air at times - even if I didn't agree with much of what was written, at least Paul came accross as someone with fresh ideas and fresh impetus ...
... however, by seeking and gaining the Tory nomination I'm afraid you can kiss goodbye to any of that radical independent thinking we would like from our AM.
An as a Tory, you can also forget my vote!
Hello Paul.
I have not noticed your campaign launch, if any, except for your cuddle with Peter Rogers, so is that it ??
I can't understand people saying that its good to see fresh ideas and inputs but at the same won't vote for Paul. As I have allready said you two choices this time suport Paul for change and for the better or stay with the old ways. Remember the oldways lost 2000 jobs on Anglesey !!!
Un o Fon
Paul, bring your manifesto on, and tell us what improvements you would establish if you were elected as an Assembly Member, with regard to the Den that is now Llangefni Council Offices.
There is only two ways to go.
Either vote to stay as we are, going down hill fast or look for change and vote for Paul Williams.
17.40 Absolutely........but where is he ???
IWJ will not get above 9500 votes. Whereas the usually absent Tory vote will be out because of the FPTP/AV vote on the same day.
This is going to be a breakthrough year for Ynys Mon; a sitting AM/MP removed for the first time since Megan Lloyd George.
I foresee many Plaid voters sitting on their hands and the Labour candidate doesn't inspire. Are there Labour voters who are willing to see Paul in the Assembly to get rid of little Ieuan?
I think so. We have to consider demographic change as well. How many Plaid voters have gone South, how many middle class English people have arrived since 2007?
Lidems, in bed with the Tories in Westminster, might swing to Paul. If UKIP are absent I can't see their voters moving far to the left.
I think all in all that Paul is in with a good chance,but he mustn't get dragged into any slanging matches with any party.
It's Anon 10:32 again
Puck, I wasn't meaning to make people feel left out, I just happen to feel we need to keep the welsh language flowing as much as possible.
I was basically saying that while I'm not from Bodffordd, I have no real confidence in the councillor named by Anon 10:18 either, but for something not (directly, anyhow) connected to their duties as a councillor, more a "semi-personal grievance"
Anyhow, as stated, I'm not going to use this blog as a crusade against individual people.
Anon 10.32 -
Thanks for taking the time to do the translation.
I'm with you on keeping the language flowing - nice thing about the translation is I can check if I got the gist right on the original. :)
PS. I have no idea if the word is spelt gist or jist?
Anon 10:32 again
Apparently, it's "gist" with a g, according to http://en.allexperts.com/q/Etymology-Meaning-Words-1474/gyst-vs-jist.htm I always assumed it was "jist" with a j!
Predictions is it?
Plaid to hold.
Turnout around 25K or less
Plaid 8500
Labour 7500
Tory 7500
Overall Labour majority in Cardiff Bay. Tories and Lib Dems have losses, Plaid minimal losses, Labour big gains.
Likewise at council level all over the UK.
Paul, please do not rise to any bait fished out by the other political parties, always remember that you have real patriots on your side, and these patriots are only interested in the wellbeing of the citizens, someone has to, we were abandoned years ago.
Tell me anon 22:08, what exactly is a patriot? Is it someone that believes in a free Wales? Someone that belives in a Wales within a federation of UK states (ie even more assembly powers), someone who believes in the current spread of power (Assembly is now powerful enough), someone who believes in a weaker Assembly or someone that believes in Wales as a component of a Westminster run pre -Assembly Wales.
Because in the believers of each they are the true patriots and the rest heretics.
So which patriot are you?
Surely a Welsh patriot would have to believe in an independent Wales otherwise they would be a UK patriot.
Anyway, pedantics aside. The NHS and public perceptions of the current tory disarray will also play a big part in this not least because Labour and Plaid will shout it loud, long and very very hard and the surgeons are taking a scalpel to the tories as from tomorrow:-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/8433665/Sickest-patients-are-being-neglected-as-doctors-focus-on-waiting-list-targets.html
Who do the public trust over the NHS - surgeons, doctors and nurses or politicians in government.
I forgot to add - even though this is systemic and dates back to and even pre-dates the last Labour government, the public (who have remarkably short attention spans and believe that pre-history means last week)) now look at the tories as having been in office more than long enough to have sorted it and not having bothered and instituting cuts to something that doesn't work ( it does, and very well - far better than ot did in 1997).
and eventually we all agreed, 'If you want to see ...a fresh start for Anglesey, our economy and Wales, then there is now only one credible way to vote' .....
With your feet!
I'm off to search for a better life for me and my family ... England here I come!
Thanks be to God that I still have this choice.
Any room for another refugee in your caravan mate.
and for me too
Taking part in an exodus from the island may be harder than expected:
"A55 roadworks beyond a joke, says North Wales Tourism" - from the BBC North Wales web-site
"North Wales Tourism managing director Ester Roberts said the issue was raised with Transport Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones due to the number of complaints hotels were receiving from customers" -
Isn't this called "pissing into the wind"?
This A55 malarky has been brought up ever year for donkeys years.
Isn't it that the contractors say it's too expensive to carry out some of the work during the winter because of the weather and lack of daylight hours or some such rubbish
I was driving down the A55 last bank holiday, the police were out escorting a truck full of cones, they were blocking off the outside lane so that there was only one lane coming into Wales, the reason behind it, to stop speeding cars and eliminate accidents, the coppers were pissing themselves watching the traffic jam on the CCTV, I won't be going down there again on a bank holiday..
interesting letter in Holyhead Anglesey Mail asking what Labour going to do with Mr Chorlton. writer thinks he caused probs. with failed coup attempt.
There was no coup attempt just a commie style attack on democracy by David Bowles and Clive McGregor which back fired.
The effect of Clive McGregor's commie style Alliance had become so corrosive to Anglesey County Council and our Democratic system that the Council was at the point of anarchy, something had to be done.
30+ members of the council came together to create a new Alliance with valid legal terms and Its plans were supported and approved by Mr Ieuan Wyn Jones AM and Mr Albert Owen MP. However it fell short of satisfying certain key players. It did not meet in full with the wishes of David Bowles
In essence he was quite happy to see the Council in perpetual turmoil for his own benefit.
In a collateral Agreement to support the Alliance, David Bowles wanted to go further. He wanted many more naming and shaming, just because they did not agree with his commie style dictatorship.
When the whole story eventually unfolds we will all see how close Bowles got to causing total Anarchy and civil strife.
interesting letter in Holyhead Anglesey Mail asking what Labour going to do with Mr Chorlton. writer thinks he caused probs. with failed coup attempt
Being as it was supported openly by AO for Labour and even IWJ for Plaid I would suggest Labour will do nothing
0040: IWJ and AO didnt support an attempted coup, did they, Red Flag? you know that, so don't twist things. seems Chorltn is out on his own.
Typical introvert negative navel-gazing Anglesey mentality here folks.
Please, forget the murky past, the future starts today !
0900
how can you forget the murkiness while the people who made it so remain?
0900
George Santayana: "Those
who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
We don't even know what the past is.
oh yes, the Mail letter about the coup and Mr J Chorlton. the red flag sounds like a cheer leader for this councilor. anyway the letter does ask an important question.
"what is the labour party going to do about Cllr Chorlton?"
with an election coming soon, sure the Druid and IWJ must be happy about this.
I have always said that this Council will never ever move forward because of the heinious crimes they committed against their own people. Until that day comes, this Council will always fail.
" We all know who the bad people are don't we Peter?" and now the Druid knows,let's hope that his information will help people get at the truth. And be it the end of Anglesey County Council, so mote it be.
Whether you like John Chorlton or not makes no difference. He along with the other 30+ Councillors who were creating a new Alliance, Group, call it what you wish, were doing it because the Current fascist Alliance controlled by Clive McGregor and David Bowles was not acceptable to our Democratic system.
David Bowles and Clive McGregor's name and shame policy conjured up purely on conjecturer and without any fair hearing was the main factor in what happened
John Chorlton was one of the Group Leaders who signed Clive McGregor's "Terms of Engagement" however he did at least realize he had done wrong and withdrew his support.
"Predictions is it?
Plaid to hold.
Turnout around 25K or less
Plaid 8500
Labour 7500
Tory 7500
Overall Labour majority in Cardiff Bay. Tories and Lib Dems have losses, Plaid minimal losses, Labour big gains."
Labour polling over 50% now. Tories very resilient holding 20% to 21% over three polls.
Libdems Polling 7% but amazingly ahead in Ceredigion!!
Plaid voters in the South are returning to the Labour fold...the "protest" vote for Plaid to punish new Labour is pointless now and Plaid is suffering; Labour well ahead in llanelli.
Overall Plaid have slipped from 22%/21% to 17% in the latest poll. The rub is that UKIP or GREENS may each take a seat. My regional vote is going from Lib/dem to Greens.
As for Ynys Mon. It's a three way fight now, I haven't seen the Labour man but if Holyhead takes to him look out.
Turnout, 29,000. Ynys Mon had the highest turnout in Wales last time and was one of the three highest at the Referendum. This time those people (particularly Tories) who watch the English Media will come out for the AV/FPTP referendum so a high poll.
The best thing that has come out since this election is the hope that IWJ will wake up the day after the election, a defeated man, and a leader of a defeated party. The people of Anglesey will be relieved to see that day.
IWJ and AO didnt support an attempted coup, did they, Red Flag? you know that, so don't twist things
Well perhaps you would care to enlighten us as to what they were doing involving themselves in it and trying to get their men as No1 and No2. Or perhaps they were just there for tea and biccies.
the red flag sounds like a cheer leader for this councilor.
I'm no cheer leader, I just know a stitch-up (or should that be carve-up) when I see one.
Paul,
I wish you the best of luck, despite the activities of your party colleagues in the Millionaires Cabinet, but if the worst happens and you don't win, will you still be continuing with this Blog?
If you all want to know who blocked the new 30+ members agreement to kick out Clive McGregor and his band of failures, in their genuine attempt to move the Council forward, according to sacked Portfolio holder, Cllr THOMAS JONES, in an email to Councillors, it was:
"The Recovery Board,the Interim M.D. and by Gwynedd Council" YES. "Gwynedd Council"
The full email say's
Dear.......
"During the day the 30 member agreement has been rejected by the Recovery Board, the Interim M.D. and Gwynedd Council.
The agreement is turning the clock back when we should be looking forward.
I would welcome the opportunity to discuss the attached document with you individually or together.
Tom".
Was put campaigning today for the 'Yes To AV' vote. Of the people that said they were going to vote (about half), 9 out of 10 said they were going to vote 'Yes'.
While chatting to them some were tories who were going to vote 'Yes' but weren't going to vote Tory in the Assembly elections because the perceived the tories as beibng ant-AV and they considered the AV referendum more important than the Assembly elections.
16:22
Cllr Thomas Jones's Email.
A copy has already been sent to Gwynedd County Council's Leader, asking for an explanation. Likewise to the Recovery Board and Carl Sargeant.
If Tom Jones is lying to cause further disharmony, he's a gonna.
12.07 Thank you. Regarding your question: I'll be doing everything I can to win.
18:02
What if Cllr Tom Jones ( Not the green, green grass of home one) is telling the truth and Gwynedd County Council did have a say in how Anglesey County Council is to be run.
Will that cause a constitutional issue and where will that leave Carl Sargeant?
Everything that takes place, behind closed doors, they treat us like idiots and laugh at us all, they think that they are doing everything in the interest of the People of Anglesey, when they are only doing it for their own gain.
What sort of people do this? The Councillors of Anglesy, Gwynedd County Council and now the Welsh Assembly. Horrific.
"While chatting to them some were tories who were going to vote 'Yes' but weren't going to vote Tory in the Assembly elections because the perceived the tories as beibng ant-AV and they considered the AV referendum more important than the Assembly elections."
So,Red Flag, you are telling me that Conservative voters are going to the polls and going to vote "Yes" to AV but NOT vote conservative at the same time?
You are clutching at straws; "A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."
The AV/FPTP referendum is going to raise the turnout in Ynys Mon. More a problem for Plaid than anyone else; Plaid always benefitted from the fact that so many retired English people on the Island ignored Assembly elections.
A very close three way election. Tory voters are remaining steady.....Plaid on the slide..... Labour racing ahead......"Squeaky" Ieuan getting more falsetto by the minute; dissing Labour for all he's worth as he sees the Assembly Gravy train pulling out of the station without him on board.
@anon 12:13
The AV/FPTP referendum is going to raise the turnout in Ynys Mon. More a problem for Plaid than anyone else
That is laughably wrong:-
2007 Turn-out 51.8%,Plaid 10653 (39.7% of the vote)
2003 Turnout 50.3%, Plaid 9452 (37.4% of the vote)
1999 Turnout 59.6%, Plaid 16469 (52,6% of the vote)
Higher turnouts favour Plaid.
As for the behaviour of voters in multi-layered elections, it's quite common for them to behave one way at one level and another at the other level. The last Euro elections (which coincided with major council elections in England) is a cracking example of that. It's also quite common for them to only vote in one ballot but not the other.
Anyways, now I've had my roast pork I'm of it to do a bit more Yes to AV campaigning.
Ah but we are talking REAL turnout now; Clarity is giving percentage of 64% certain to vote; What happens at THAT level of turnout Red Flag?
I'll give you a clue;
2001 Turnout 64% Plaid 32.6% (Second)
2005 Turnout 67.5% Plaid 31.1% (second)
2010 Turnout 68.8% Plaid 26.2% (second)
Plaid have been in government, they are no longer Political virgins. No longer an idealistic pressure group, they won't muster more than 9,500 votes. Vote Plaid...get Labour..may as well vote Labour!
The figures I quote above are the REAL turn out figures for the Constituency of Ynys Mon in the last three Assembly elections.
The figures you quote are for General Elections and as happens in Scotland and Northern Ireland as well, the voters behave differently in Parliamentary Elections to how they behave in Regionals. This is an Assembly election and you can only compare it to previous Assembly elections.
64% will not turn out to vote in this Constituency in an Assembly election so your figures are meaningless. For instance compare the last three European Elections . The figures just prove that people vote differently at different levels which is why you can only compare like-for-like, Assembly for Assembly.
If you look at recent council by-elections that have happened around the place on paper The Druid will be annihalated in May but he won't be, because again people vote differently at council level.
Again, people I spoke to half intend to vote, of those that are voting in the referendum as well most are voting yes.
And Clarity only give 56.6% certain to vote on Ynys Mon. Interestingly their breakdowns for here have Plaid ahead of Labour, Tories third and the Lib Dems wiped out. But being as they only asked around two dozen people on Ynys Mon you can't exactly put much credence their findings.
But you do.
The AV issue will do nothing for turnout - expect a typical turnout.
Only the Labour die-hards will vote for a student from Manchester.
More likely the 'soft' Labour and Plaid voters will stay at home.
Paul, Anglesey needs you to win.
The AV issue will do nothing for turnout - expect a typical turnout.
I tend to agree. Turn-out low to mid 50's
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