Hain denounces "apocalyptic tales" of mass job losses

  
Much good cheer in the newspapers today as it was announced that unemployment in Wales fell by 8,000 jobs in the three months up to November. The number of people now out of work in the Principality is 121,000 and those claiming Jobseekers allowance was also down by 1,300 to 79,200. All of this is welcome news at a time like this.

The Kenyan, Peter Hain, sensing his moment, popped up to denounce the "apocalyptic tales of mass job losses" and pointed out that "this Government has been investing to ensure short-term job losses are not allowed to turn into long-term unemployment".

You heard that right: all of those poor folks at Anglesey Aluminium (400 jobs), Eaton Electric (250 jobs), Peboc (100 jobs), Vion (140 jobs), Menai Electrical (50 jobs), Anglesey Country foods (200 jobs) and the estimated 1,800 other lost jobs that were dependent on the employment within these companies - none of these people have actually lost their jobs according to Hain. Mass job losses have not occurred - the roughly 3,000 jobs lost on Anglesey were just "apocalyptic tales", figments of their and our imaginations. Fairy tales pedalled by the opposition parties.

The Druid is glad that the rest of Wales seems to be recovering from the recession. However he can assure Mr Hain that mass job losses have not been fairy tales on Anglesey - they are very much a reality.
        

Anglesey County Council: "bedevilled by personality driven, petty parochial vindictive factional infighting"

  

David Bowles

BBC Wales's Betsan Powys is reporting on her blog an extraordinary letter written by Anglesey County Council's Managing Director, David Bowles, to all Councillors.

The full text is not yet available, but Betsan picks up the following quotes:

The council "has been bedevilled by personality driven, petty parochial vindictive factional infighting. This is a disgraceful example of an attempt to use an officer as the meat in the middle of the sandwich of personality driven infighting; even worse those involved see nothing wrong with dragging an officer's personal and private life into these matters".

"I have been appointed by the Minister and ... am therefore not bound by some of the constraints which may face other officers within local authorities".

"I did consider marking this letter Private and Confidential but decided against it on the basis that it would get leaked anyway. I regret having to write to all Members in these terms rather than just the few but that is a consequence of how the few conduct themselves".

Extraordinary is certainly the word - and shows that the problems which have beset the Council for the past few years are by no means over.

Bowles was appointed last year by Local Government minister, Dr Brian Gibbons, following a damning report on Anglesey County Council's performance by the Auditor General for Wales. Bowles himself is no stranger to controversy having been suspended from his last job as Chairman of the United Lincolnshire Hospitals Trust.

More information as soon as the Druid has it...

UPDATE: Here is another quote from the letter:

"...Those few who put their petty spiteful factional infighting above the interests of the island have no place on this council..."

  

A note on Plaid Cymru's Election Strategy

  
Following on from the Druid's recent post on Ieuan Wyn Jones's pensions announcement, I thought it would be interesting to add a short post scriptum on the symbology behind this announcement and its significance in illuminating Plaid Cymru's election strategy.

Of course Ieuan Wyn Jones gave his speech in Mountain Ash which is smack bang in the middle of the former constituency of 'Merhyr Tydfil and Aberdare' - a seat once held by Keir Hardie, one of the founders of the Independent Labour Party and their first MP. Even to this day, this area is proudly Labour supporting as the recent YouGov Wales polls shows:

The figures above also show that it is one of the areas where Plaid Cymru struggles the most - probably through failing to find traction for a nationalist agenda in a mostly English speaking area. The people here vote Labour because they always have - its part of their Valleys, working class identity. However, there aren't many ex-miners in the more metropolitan inclined Labour party of today, dominated by such people as Peter Mandelson, Harriet Harman, Alastair Darling, the Miliband Brothers and so on - all from wealthy and privileged backgrounds. No doubt people in Mountain Ash and elsewhere in South Wales are struggling to identify with the party they were always brought up to believe they should vote for - and it is this, coupled with the general current unpopularity of the Labour Party, which Plaid Cymru is obviously trying to exploit.

They have realised that the 2010 General Election is an opportunity to extend their vote from beyond their normal heartlands of Anglesey, Gwynedd and West Wales - but only if they can broaden their appeal by stealing some of Labour's traditional values. Hence Ieuan Wyn Jones's speech on "fairness" and "a living pension" given symbolically in Keir Hardie's old constituency.

Its a clever strategy and could well work - it also means Labour has to work harder for the South Wales votes they have increasingly taken for granted. But, as per my previous post, it would probably be much more effective if Plaid Cymru focussed on promoting policies which they at least have some chance of implementing - to do otherwise just makes them look silly and not serious.
      

Rising Inflation rates will sink Anglesey

    

This morning the Office for National Statistics (ONS) disclosed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December jumped by the largest ever single month increase since records began in 1996; furthermore the Retail Price Index (RPI) also rose by the largest amount since back in 1979. They now stand at:

• CPI 2.9%
• RPI 2.4%

Both the CPI and RPI are measures of the average price of a standard group of goods and services - called a 'basket' - bought by a typical household. The main difference between them is that the RPI also includes Housing / Mortgage costs.

We can look at them as an index of generally how much or less we have to spend to buy the same essential items which we all buy each month: things like groceries, clothing, petrol or diesel for the car, electricity, pet food, haircuts, and so on.

These huge jumps mean that, on average, pretty much everything is now 2.9% MORE expensive than it was previously - and, remember, that is before we also add in the the additional 2.5% VAT increase which kicked in this month. In other words household bills are going to cost on average up to 5.4% MORE than they did last year - which is not good news for the hundreds of Anglesey households who are already suffering from the recent spate of job losses at Anglesey Aluminium, Welsh Country Foods and elsewhere. Its a real "Double Whammy" for them.

This huge rise in inflation is a direct consequence of the huge sums of money the Labour Government has been printing each month in order to pay for ever increasing levels of national debt. Its good for the Government as it means it can 'inflate away' a portion of its debt, but leaves each and every one of us with any savings or a fixed income poorer as a result. And Anglesey, already the poorest county in the UK, will be disproportionately hit yet again as the average income here is that much less than elsewhere.

  

Ieuan Wyn Jones promises a free unicorn to everyone who votes Plaid

  
The Druid had no intention of writing two posts on Plaid Cymru in succession today - but then he saw this:

Plaid leader - and local Anglesey Swansea Denbigh boy - Ieuan wyn Jones AM will apparently unveil during a speech this evening that if Plaid win the General Election they will introduce a guaranteed state pension which would be set at the rate of the pension credit, in other words:

At present, pension credit is means-tested and has to be applied for. The lower basic state pension will rise in April to £97.65 for a single person and £132.60 for a couple. Under Plaid’s promise, all single pensioners would get the pension credit rate of £156.15 while couples would receive £202.40 – increases of just under 30% and 35% respectively.

Apparently the £20bn extra cost this would entail would be paid for through scrapping ID Cards and Trident in addition to raising taxes for everyone earning over £100K.

Sounds great - all Plaid Cymru needs to do is win 324 seats in the General Election to obtain a majority and then they can implement this election pledge. Oh, wait, Plaid only actually contests 40 seats - so on top of winning every seat in Wales they'll also need to win another 284 seats elsewhere in the country… that could prove tricky so its a good job that responsibility for Pensions has been devolved to the Welsh Assembly where Plaid Cymru is currently in a coalition government with Labour - otherwise they could never implement this election pledge. Oh, wait - that hasn't happened either.

This is politics at its most cynical. Plaid Cymru have made an election pledge to Wales' pensioners which they know they have absolutely no chance whatsoever to implement. In the business world this is called 'fraud' - as an ex-solicitor I'd have thought Ieuan Wyn Jones would know something about that. 

Rather than bribing voters with empty promises, far better that Plaid spent some time thinking about pledges they can actually deliver. For instance, although the Welsh Assembly Government does not have authority over pensions, it does have responsibilities for:

• education
• health
• local government
• transport
• planning
• economic development
• social care
• culture
• environment
• agriculture and rural affairs

The list includes Local Government so here's one the Druid would suggest to Ieuan Wyn for starters: how about actually implementing one of the election pledges you made as the last elections in 2007, i.e. to lift 50,000 Welsh businesses out of paying Business Rates?

Who knows - if Plaid Cymru had actually introduced that pledge back in 2007 then perhaps just some of the many businesses in Anglesey which have gone bust would still be around? 
   

Plaid's Dylan Rees: The Anointed One?

  

Seeing as William Hill have decided that Plaid Cymru's Dylan Rees is the overwhelming odds-on favourite to take the Ynys Môn seat at the General Election its only proper that the Druid takes a critical look at the 'anointed one'.

So what do we know about Rees?

The first surprising thing we learn about Rees is that he's not actually from Anglesey - in fact, he's not even really from North Wales. He was born in Carmarthenshire in South Wales and brought up in Northumbria, before moving to Wrexham with his parents when he was 10 years old - when he also began learning Welsh. So, like the Conservative's Anthony Ridge-Newman, Rees is not a true 'local' candidate. The Conservatives have been criticised in the local press and by residents in general for their controversial selection - but is it not a little curious that in the constituency that Plaid Cymru recorded their second largest vote in North Wales (11,036 votes) that they were also not able to find a true local candidate? Has the example of Ieuan Wyn Jones not inspired anybody? Anybody…?

Anyway, after studying Politics and Law at the University College of Wales, Aberystwyth, Rees went on to spend most of his working life as a Police Officer throughout North Wales including stints at Llangefni and Amlwch, before landing up as an District Inspector in and Holyhead. (Incidentally, what is it about Plaid Cymru's rather creepy obsession with selecting ex-Police Officers as candidates - they now have no fewer than three PPCs in North Wales who are ex-North Wales Constabulary men). Rees left the Force in 2003 in order to "pursue his political ambitions" and also landed a job as  Senior Homelessness Officer for Ynys Môn County Council at the same time.

Now at the top of his Plaid Cymru Candidates page he lists his three top pledges for Ynys Môn if elected as:

• Tackle the Island's law and order difficulties
• Make more homes available for local people
• Transform the island's economy

Its informative that he mentions the economy last - almost like an afterthought. And his 1st and 2nd pledges only ranked as the 7th and 13th most important issues to North Wales residents in the latest Wales YouGov poll. Rees might want to reconsider his priorities.

Anyway, as an ex-Policeman perhaps its obvious that he might choose Law and Order as his top pledge - surely this is his area of competency, right? Well, as Rees retired in 2003 as District Inspector for Holyhead, lets take a look at the crime statistics for Anglesey during his last two years and see. Luckily the figures for 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 are recorded in Hansard in a Home Office reply given on 17th May, 2004:

So domestic burglaries in Anglesey more than doubled during this period - a dramatic increase and much, much larger than any other region in North Wales. And on top of that violent crimes also increased by over 50%! Assuming Rees was the top man in holyhead at least during this period it doesn't look like a very good record to the Druid.

Another question that immediately jumps into the Druid's mind are to what extent does Dylan share his views on Policing with his ex-boss, North Wales ex-Chief Constable Richard Brunstrom? To residents of Anglesey Brunstrom will need no introduction, but to those who don't know him take a look at this:

Dubbed the "Mad Mullah of the Traffic Taliban" and "Mr Speed Camera" by the national press, Brunstrom was without doubt the most controversial Policeman in the country and known for his obsession with fining speeding drivers and his calls to legalise cannabis, ecstasy and heroin.

Does Rees agree with ex-Boss Brunstrom's views? Well, its impossible to look inside and know a man's mind, but as recently as 2006 Rees sent a letter to the Daily Post defending his ex-Boss when Brunstrom was criticised for a funding crisis in the force (what happened to all those speeding ticket fines?). Furthermore, Rees has popped up numerous time (here, here, and here for example) with concerns over traffic and speeding on the Island -- so he obviously shares some of Brunstrom's fetish with traffic offences.

As an active officer until 2003 It would also be interesting to know Rees's position on ID Cards and New Labour's slavish policing 'targets'. If you're reading, Dylan, do let the Druid know.

So Is the Anointed One the right man for the Anglesey?

Rees seems a competent campaigner and politician. He spent five much-publicised days marching around Anglesey to highlight local Post Office closures and has even launched a YouTube campaign to save leisure facilities on Anglesey.

He has rightly attacked Labour MPs for their hipocracy over Post Office closures, but has himself publicly called for a reduction in prison numbers whilst at the same time calling for a new prison to be built in Anglesey! And even does so within the same press release!

However, what most worries the Druid about Rees's 'anointed one' status is his complete lack of any private-sector business experience. Ynys Môn is reeling from huge job losses...

• Anglesey Aluminium, Holyhead - 400 jobs
• Eaton Electric, Holyhead - 250 jobs
• Eastman Chemical Company (Peboc), Llangefni - 100 jobs
• Vion - Llangefni plant went down to one shift - 140 jobs
• Menai Electrical, Gaerwen - 50 jobs
• Anglesey Country Foods, Gaerwen - 200 jobs

…and this list doesn't include Octel or all the jobs lost at smaller companies which supported the larger ones above. On top of that, the only remaining large scale private-sector employer, Wylfa Power Station, will begin decommissioning later this year. What the Island needs now is jobs - lots and lots of jobs - and somebody with the experience and vision to help create them.

Now the Druid has nothing in particular against Plaid Cymru - true to his oath he only wants the best for Anglesey - but what kind of candidate does Plaid Cymru offer Anglesey in these terrible economic circumstances? A man who has worked in the public sector throughout his life and has no experience whatsoever about either how business works or how to create and keep jobs. (Furthermore as Plaid have selected two of Rees's brother officers in other seats in North Wales - one might ponder on the true value that Plaid Cymru really puts on enterprise and business).

The Druid hopes that Anglesey residents think very carefully about Dylan Rees's CV before casting a 'patriotic' vote for Plaid Cymru come the General Election.

P.S. Before anyone shouts bias - the Druid intends to investigate the suitability of all the candidates. I chose Rees first as he is the front runner.
 

What most worries North Wales voters?

    
Its interesting to drill down a little into the small print of the latest YouGov Wales poll beyond just the voting intention figures.

Respondents were also asked to pick the three most important issues to them when deciding how to vote in the next election. Below you can see the issues selected by North Wales residents in comparison to those selected by All-Wales respondents:

The top three issues both in North Wales and nationally were the state of the economy, immigration and Health. Rather surprisingly considering Anglesey, Conwy and Denbighshire are amongst the three poorest counties in the  whole UK, North Wales respondents were comparatively more relaxed about the state of the economy than Wales as a whole. In fact with just 52% of the respondents selecting the economy in their Top Three, North Wales seems to be the most economically blasé region in Wales. Perhaps we in the North are just more used to a general crap economic state? Unemployment was the fourth most often cited concern - slightly contradictorily above the Wales average - but only to be expected after all the recent closures and job losses on Anglesey at least.

Another surprise was the fact that at 40% North Wales residents were the most worried about immigration in all of Wales. However with only 1% of North Wales respondents planning to vote for BNP - the equal lowest amount in Wales - concern about immigration does not seem to have been transferred to xenophobia.

Other notable differences between North Wales and the rest of the Nation was in relation to Health and Education. With much recent discussion about village schools being closed down in the North perhaps this is only to be expected.

For the rest of the issues North Wales was broadly in line with the rest of Wales.

Demographics of political support

The fine print of the YouGov poll also reveals the relative support for the main political parties amongst different age groups and social demographics.

Some particular points of interest (with thanks to Pete Whitehead at UK Polling Report) are:

• most of Plaid Cymru's support comes from the Young and the Old - Plaid seem to have no appeal at all to people aged between 35-54.
• the Tory share was higher amongst C2DE social groups than amongst ABC1s whilst Labour lead was almost the same in both categories. This may be a significant indicator come the election as Margaret Thatcher also famously commanded more support amongst C2DEs than ABC1s.
• Labour and Tory both scored higher amongst the C2DE group with the Lib Dems and Plaid doing better amongst ABC1s.  

  Lots of food for thought there.